Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
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  WXDD1 XHWS 180245
+
  TCAD1 WHLC 200940
−
  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 1
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  TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 7
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  HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
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  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY
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  2:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146
+
  9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
+
  ...MIKLA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THREATENING LAND...
−
THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION CENTRE ON
+
−
RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A HWS RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
+
−
WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANT SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  RECENTLY...TENDIUM REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 28 KT...GUSTING TO 36 KT.
+
  A RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH FLIGHT OUT OF ATOLLVILLE FOUND HIGHLY
−
  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME FOR ALL ISLANDS
+
UNDESIRABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE
−
  OF ODIPOUS. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ACROSS THE
+
IN WIND SHEAR TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SSTS...WHICH ONLY GET COLDER.
−
  ISLANDS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 150 MM...6 INCHES...COULD CAUSE SUDDEN
+
  RIGHT NOW...A DRONESONDE SENT FROM THE RESEARCH PLANE MADE IT INTO THE
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  FLASH FLOODING AT LOW GROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.
+
  STORM AND SAMPLED 32 KNOT WINDS...BUT I AM JUDGING THIS TO NOT BE
 +
  REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REAL INTENSITY OF THE STORM...WHICH IS HELD AT 35
 +
  KNOTS FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION 010/16.
 
   
 
   
−
  OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY...
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST
−
  THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHWARDS. MOST
+
  TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...INCLUDING THE EAST COAST OF
−
MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONEX /HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION/...
+
  THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...AND ATOLLVILLE. THIS WARNING WILL
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  AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEEPEN AGAIN NORTH OF ODIPOUS AND REFORM
+
  BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY IF MIKLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION.
−
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHICH WAY IT WILL GO AT THAT POINT...IS FAIRLY
+
−
SPLIT. HDCW...AFLE...AND THE IN-HOUSE HWS MODEL RUNS ALL BRING IT ALONG
+
−
THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN
+
−
  SEA TOWARDS EASTERN PRUDENTIA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE SMALLER MODELS
+
−
BRING IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KOMPA RU. THIS FORCED CONEX TO BE SLIGHTLY
+
−
EAST OF THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY REGENERATED
+
−
CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN WEST KOMPA RU.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF
+
  THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
−
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED
+
−
IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS
+
−
NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION
+
−
IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE...
+
−
A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE
+
−
CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER MICHAELS/RYAN
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 +
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.
 +
 +
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 +
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 +
 +
AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
 +
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST...ABOUT 275 KM...170 MILES...JUST
 +
EAST OF DUE SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A
 +
SPEED OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
 +
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE
 +
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
 +
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE
 +
MIKLA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT BY TOMORROW MORNING.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 KM...50 MILES FROM THE
 +
CENTRE OF THE STORM.
 +
 +
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.
 +
 +
HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN JUST SIX HOURS. WE NOW HAVE A WEAKENING STORM ON OUR
 +
HANDS...AND WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE
 +
TRACKS NORTHWARD WE MIGHT NOT EVEN HAVE A CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. A HEARTLAND WEATHER
 +
SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NEARING THE STORM...AND SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD
 +
IDEA OF STORM INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE UPDATE...WHICH COULD WELL BE A DOWNGRADE.
 +
 +
THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
 +
IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM...
 +
WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG.
 +
THE CHANGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MIKLA
 +
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT CIRCULATION...LATEST
 +
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT ANY LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
 +
CYCLONE. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL HOLD ON TO STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 12 HOURS BEFORE
 +
DECREASING INTENSITY. BUT IF THE RECON FINDS A DEPRESSION AND NOT A STORM...THIS
 +
FORECAST WILL BE VERY INACCURATE.
 +
 +
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...20/0900H
 +
  INITIAL... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE -->
 +
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING -->
 +
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 25 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
 +
21/2100H...DISSIPATED INLAND
 +
 +
REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 23.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
 +
NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE
 +
NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
 +
 +
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT NOON
 +
HPT...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT.
 +
 +
FORECASTER KRUGER
 +
----
 +
TCTW01 FOLN 200945
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED 9:45 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 20 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  MIKLA
 +
WARNING NR:        7
 +
POSITION:          22.9N 41.3E
 +
ACCURACY:          25NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          N 16KT
 +
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          35KT
 +
MAX GUST:          45KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    24.4N 41.5E
 +
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 20 2146=

Latest revision as of 03:50, 13 October 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
TCAD1 WHLC 200940
TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 7
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

...MIKLA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THREATENING LAND...

A RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH FLIGHT OUT OF ATOLLVILLE FOUND HIGHLY
UNDESIRABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE
IN WIND SHEAR TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SSTS...WHICH ONLY GET COLDER.
RIGHT NOW...A DRONESONDE SENT FROM THE RESEARCH PLANE MADE IT INTO THE
STORM AND SAMPLED 32 KNOT WINDS...BUT I AM JUDGING THIS TO NOT BE
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REAL INTENSITY OF THE STORM...WHICH IS HELD AT 35
KNOTS FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION 010/16.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST
TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...INCLUDING THE EAST COAST OF
THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...AND ATOLLVILLE. THIS WARNING WILL
BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY IF MIKLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST...ABOUT 275 KM...170 MILES...JUST
EAST OF DUE SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A
SPEED OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE
IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE
MIKLA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT BY TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 KM...50 MILES FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.

HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN JUST SIX HOURS. WE NOW HAVE A WEAKENING STORM ON OUR
HANDS...AND WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE
TRACKS NORTHWARD WE MIGHT NOT EVEN HAVE A CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. A HEARTLAND WEATHER
SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NEARING THE STORM...AND SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD
IDEA OF STORM INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE UPDATE...WHICH COULD WELL BE A DOWNGRADE.

THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM...
WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG.
THE CHANGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MIKLA
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT CIRCULATION...LATEST
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT ANY LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL HOLD ON TO STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 12 HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING INTENSITY. BUT IF THE RECON FINDS A DEPRESSION AND NOT A STORM...THIS
FORECAST WILL BE VERY INACCURATE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...20/0900H
 INITIAL... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT 
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 
21/2100H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 23.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE
NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT NOON
HPT...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER

TCTW01 FOLN 200945
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:45 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 20 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   MIKLA
WARNING NR:         7
POSITION:           22.9N 41.3E
ACCURACY:           25NM
MOVEMENT:           N 16KT
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     24.4N 41.5E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 20 2146=
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