Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"
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| − | TCAD1 | + | TCAD1 WHLC 200940 |
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 7 | |
| − | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | + | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY |
| − | + | 9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | ... | + | ...MIKLA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THREATENING LAND... |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | A RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH FLIGHT OUT OF ATOLLVILLE FOUND HIGHLY | |
| − | + | UNDESIRABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE | |
| − | THE | + | IN WIND SHEAR TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SSTS...WHICH ONLY GET COLDER. |
| − | + | RIGHT NOW...A DRONESONDE SENT FROM THE RESEARCH PLANE MADE IT INTO THE | |
| − | THE | + | STORM AND SAMPLED 32 KNOT WINDS...BUT I AM JUDGING THIS TO NOT BE |
| − | + | REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REAL INTENSITY OF THE STORM...WHICH IS HELD AT 35 | |
| − | + | KNOTS FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION 010/16. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST | |
| − | + | TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...INCLUDING THE EAST COAST OF | |
| − | + | THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...AND ATOLLVILLE. THIS WARNING WILL | |
| + | BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY IF MIKLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. | ||
| + | |||
| + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED | ||
| + | IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. | ||
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | ||
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED |
| − | + | NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST...ABOUT 275 KM...170 MILES...JUST | |
| − | + | EAST OF DUE SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. | |
| + | |||
| + | TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A | ||
| + | SPEED OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE | ||
| + | NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE | ||
| + | IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER | ||
| + | GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE | ||
| + | MIKLA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT BY TOMORROW MORNING. | ||
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 KM...50 MILES FROM THE | |
| − | + | CENTRE OF THE STORM. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | THE | + | HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN JUST SIX HOURS. WE NOW HAVE A WEAKENING STORM ON OUR |
| − | AIRCRAFT | + | HANDS...AND WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE |
| + | TRACKS NORTHWARD WE MIGHT NOT EVEN HAVE A CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. A HEARTLAND WEATHER | ||
| + | SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NEARING THE STORM...AND SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD | ||
| + | IDEA OF STORM INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE UPDATE...WHICH COULD WELL BE A DOWNGRADE. | ||
| − | + | THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING | |
| − | + | IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM... | |
| − | + | WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG. | |
| − | + | THE CHANGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MIKLA | |
| − | + | SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT CIRCULATION...LATEST | |
| − | + | BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT ANY LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL | |
| − | + | CYCLONE. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL HOLD ON TO STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 12 HOURS BEFORE | |
| − | + | DECREASING INTENSITY. BUT IF THE RECON FINDS A DEPRESSION AND NOT A STORM...THIS | |
| − | + | FORECAST WILL BE VERY INACCURATE. | |
| − | + | ||
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OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME... | + | INITIAL TIME...20/0900H |
| − | INITIAL | + | INITIAL... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE --> |
| − | + | 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING --> | |
| − | + | 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING <!-- 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 25 KT...REMNANT LOW --> | |
| − | + | 21/2100H...DISSIPATED INLAND | |
| − | 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... | + | |
| − | + | ||
| − | 21/ | + | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 23.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS |
| − | + | NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE | |
| − | + | NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H. | |
| − | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT NOON |
| + | HPT...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT. | ||
| − | FORECASTER | + | FORECASTER KRUGER |
---- | ---- | ||
| − | TCTW01 FOLN | + | TCTW01 FOLN 200945 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 9:45 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 20 2146 |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
| − | TROPICAL CYCLONE: | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE: MIKLA |
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 7 |
| − | POSITION: | + | POSITION: 22.9N 41.3E |
| − | ACCURACY: | + | ACCURACY: 25NM |
| − | MOVEMENT: N | + | MOVEMENT: N 16KT |
CENT PRES: 1008HPA | CENT PRES: 1008HPA | ||
| − | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 35KT |
| − | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 45KT |
| − | FCST 12HR PSTN: | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 24.4N 41.5E |
| − | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT |
| − | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 20 2146= |
Latest revision as of 03:50, 13 October 2007
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
TCAD1 WHLC 200940 TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 7 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY 9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ...MIKLA EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THREATENING LAND... A RECENT ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH FLIGHT OUT OF ATOLLVILLE FOUND HIGHLY UNDESIRABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS AND MINIMAL SSTS...WHICH ONLY GET COLDER. RIGHT NOW...A DRONESONDE SENT FROM THE RESEARCH PLANE MADE IT INTO THE STORM AND SAMPLED 32 KNOT WINDS...BUT I AM JUDGING THIS TO NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE REAL INTENSITY OF THE STORM...WHICH IS HELD AT 35 KNOTS FOR NOW. INITIAL MOTION 010/16. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...INCLUDING THE EAST COAST OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...AND ATOLLVILLE. THIS WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY IF MIKLA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST...ABOUT 275 KM...170 MILES...JUST EAST OF DUE SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A SPEED OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND IF CONDITIONS DO NOT IMPROVE MIKLA COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT BY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 KM...50 MILES FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. HOW THINGS HAVE CHANGED IN JUST SIX HOURS. WE NOW HAVE A WEAKENING STORM ON OUR HANDS...AND WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM 10 TO 25 KNOTS AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NORTHWARD WE MIGHT NOT EVEN HAVE A CYCLONE BY TOMORROW. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NEARING THE STORM...AND SHOULD GIVE US A GOOD IDEA OF STORM INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE UPDATE...WHICH COULD WELL BE A DOWNGRADE. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM... WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG. THE CHANGE IS IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WITH POOR ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...MIKLA SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT CIRCULATION...LATEST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT ANY LONGER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR CONTINUITY...WILL HOLD ON TO STORM STRENGTH THROUGH 12 HOURS BEFORE DECREASING INTENSITY. BUT IF THE RECON FINDS A DEPRESSION AND NOT A STORM...THIS FORECAST WILL BE VERY INACCURATE. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...20/0900H INITIAL... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 21/2100H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 23.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT NOON HPT...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER KRUGER
TCTW01 FOLN 200945 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:45 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 20 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: MIKLA WARNING NR: 7 POSITION: 22.9N 41.3E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: N 16KT CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 24.4N 41.5E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 20 2146=
