Difference between revisions of "TD21 (2145)"

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{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Depression Twenty-one
+
{{Storm active2|name=Tropical Storm Twenty-one
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|category=depression|type=Tropical depression
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|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
−
|local time=0200
+
|local time=0800
 
|date=December 3
 
|date=December 3
 
|year=2145
 
|year=2145
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|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 45.0°N 05.5°E]<br/>About 1000 km (625 miles) west-southwest of Commemoration Landmark
+
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 44.4°N 04.9°E]<br/>About 1225 km (765 miles) southwest of Commemoration Landmark
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|winds=55 km/h (35 mph)
+
|winds=65 km/h (40 mph)
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
|windtype=1-minute sustained
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|pressure=1004 hPa
+
|pressure=1002 hPa
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|movement=South-southwest at 19 km/h (12 mph)
+
|movement=Southwest at 43 km/h (27 mph)
−
|advisory=first}}
+
|advisory=latest}}
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
<div style="clear: both"></div>
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD1 HPCWT 030340
+
  TCAD1 HPCWT 030940
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 001
+
  TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 002
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU
 
  CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU
 
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145
 
  1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES COAST... A RARE
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  TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... 18TH OF SEASON...
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DECEMBER CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND... IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT HAS BEEN
+
−
DECIDED THAT THIS STORM WILL NOT BE NAMED DUE TO THE CHANGE IN NAMING
+
−
SYSTEMS FOR NEXT SEASON. IF IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... IT WILL
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−
BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM 4521.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.0 FROM HDCW/AFLE/UHWF...
+
  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSENSUS T2.0... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
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  MEANING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL... AND
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  30 KT OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS... BUT BASED ON A BUOY REPORT NEAR THE
−
  COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. IT COULD EASILY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS
+
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WAS OF 32 KT WINDS IN THE WEAKEST QUAD...
−
  AT ANY TIME.
+
  AS WELL AS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY
 +
  IS SET TO 35 KT/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.
 
   
 
   
−
  INITIAL MOTION IS 195/10.
+
  INITIAL MOTION IS 210/23.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
+
  AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
−
  LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 05.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1000 KM... 625 MILES...
+
  LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1225 KM... 765 MILES...
−
  WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
−
  WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD
+
  WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD
−
  EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA.
+
  EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA.
−
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH.
+
  TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.
 
   
 
   
−
  SSTS ARE NEAR 26 DEG C... BARELY ENOUGH FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE... WITH HIGH BUT
+
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM
−
  DECREASING SHEAR VALUES. IN THE PATH OF TWENTY-ONE LIES A POCKET OF EXTREMELY LOW
+
  THE CENTRE.
−
SHEAR AND 27C WATERS... WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MINIATURE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
+
−
COULD INDICATE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THE COMPUTER MODELS COULD BE BETTER... BUT FOR A DECEMBER CYCLONE THEY HAVE A
+
  THERE ARE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM... WHICH WHEN COUPLED
−
  RELATIVELY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. ALL AGREE ON A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS
+
  WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
−
  OR LESS... AND ALL AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE
+
AND WE COULD EASILY HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN MINIMAL HURRICANE. SHEAR
−
  NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT... THE MODELS DIVERGE... ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON A RECURVING
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  TENDENCY IS FALLING IN THE AREA... AND A PATCH OF 5-10 KT SHEAR/26-27 DEG C WATER
−
  TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE BOLD AND CALL FOR A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM
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LIE AHEAD OF TS21.
−
HITTING PRU05.
+
 +
THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FURTHER ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO IT SPEEDING UP. THE
 +
  AFLE GOT CAUGHT AND GOT LEFT BEHIND.... INITIALISING THE STORM TOO FAR NORTHEAST FROM
 +
ITS ACTUAL POSITION. HDCW AND UHWF ARE MOST RELIABLE HERE... WITH UHWF INITIALISING
 +
THE SYSTEM AT 35 KT AS WELL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL SPEEDING UP EVEN MORE TO
 +
  THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE AN ABRUPT CURVATURE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HDCW ALSO SUGGESTS
 +
THAT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CLOSELY
 +
FOLLOW THESE TWO MODELS... AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR BADIA DE LA PAU WITHIN 48 HOURS
 +
AS A 60-KT SEVERE/INTENSE TROPICAL STORM.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME... 03/0300H
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  INITIAL TIME... 03/0900H
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   INITIAL... 45.0 N 05.5 E... 30 KT <!-- 03/0900H... 44.6 N 05.1 E... 35 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 44.4 N 04.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 03/1500H... 42.7 N 04.2 E... 40 KT -->
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03/1500H... 44.0 N 04.6 E... 35 KT <!-- 03/2100H... 43.4 N 03.7 E... 40 KT -->
+
  03/2100H... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 45 KT <!-- 04/0300H... 41.3 N 02.6 E... 50 KT -->
−
  04/0300H... 42.7 N 03.3 E... 45 KT <!-- 04/0900H... 41.9 N 03.1 E... 45 KT -->
+
  04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 55 KT <!-- 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 65 KT -->
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  04/1500H... 41.0 N 02.8 E... 50 KT <!-- 04/2100H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 50 KT -->
+
  04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 <!-- 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 65 KT -->
−
  05/0300H... 38.8 N 02.8 E... 55 KT <!-- 05/0900H... 38.0 N 03.3 E... 55 KT
+
  05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 60 KT... COAST OF NORTH BAREN W OF BADIA DE LA PAU
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05/1500H... 37.5 N 04.0 E... 55 KT      05/2100H... 37.0 N 04.5 E... 55 KT -->
+
  06/0900H... DISSIPATED INLAND
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  06/0300H... 37.1 N 05.3 E... 45 KT... INLAND NEAR DE LA PAD/PRU05
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−
  07/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 45.0 NORTH 05.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
+
  REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.4 NORTH 04.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
−
  NEAR 55 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA... MOVING SOUTH-
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  NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING SOUTHWEST
−
  SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H.
+
  AT 43 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0840 WST.
+
  THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 1540 HPT/1440 WST.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER RINDLI
 
  FORECASTER RINDLI
  
 
----
 
----
−
  BPCT1 HPCOR 030400
+
  BPCT1 HPCOR 031000
−
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 1
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE
−
  BULLETIN À 0300 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145
+
  BULLETIN À 0900 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145
 
   
 
   
−
  DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1004 HPA].
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1002 HPA].
 
   
 
   
−
  POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 02 HEURES LOCALES: 45.0 NORD / 05.5 EST
+
  POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 08 HEURES LOCALES: 44.4 NORD / 04.9 EST
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  (QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES NORD ET CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST)
+
  (QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)
 
   
 
   
−
  DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1000 KM À L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST
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  DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1225 KM À LA SUD-OUEST
−
  DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 19 KM/H.
+
  DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST À 43 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
 
  VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
 
  VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS
 
   
 
   
−
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 42.7N 03.3E
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 40.4N 02.2E
−
  FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 38.8N 02.8E
+
  TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.7N 04.6E
−
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE/SUR TERRE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 37.1N 05.3E
+
 
   
 
   
 
  CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
 
  CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
−
  PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1000 HPT.
+
  PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1600 HPT.

Revision as of 04:23, 21 February 2007

Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Twenty-one
Tropical storm
As of: 0800 local time December 3, 2145
Location: 44.4°N 04.9°E
About 1225 km (765 miles) southwest of Commemoration Landmark
Maximum
winds: 		65 km/h (40 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1002 hPa
Movement: Southwest at 43 km/h (27 mph)
See latest advisory below.
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD1 HPCWT 030940
TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145

TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... 18TH OF SEASON...

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSENSUS T2.0... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO
30 KT OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS... BUT BASED ON A BUOY REPORT NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WAS OF 32 KT WINDS IN THE WEAKEST QUAD...
AS WELL AS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 35 KT/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

INITIAL MOTION IS 210/23.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR
LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1225 KM... 765 MILES...
SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD
EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA.
TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM
THE CENTRE.

THERE ARE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM... WHICH WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AND WE COULD EASILY HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN MINIMAL HURRICANE. SHEAR
TENDENCY IS FALLING IN THE AREA... AND A PATCH OF 5-10 KT SHEAR/26-27 DEG C WATER
LIE AHEAD OF TS21.

THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FURTHER ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO IT SPEEDING UP. THE
AFLE GOT CAUGHT AND GOT LEFT BEHIND.... INITIALISING THE STORM TOO FAR NORTHEAST FROM
ITS ACTUAL POSITION. HDCW AND UHWF ARE MOST RELIABLE HERE... WITH UHWF INITIALISING
THE SYSTEM AT 35 KT AS WELL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL SPEEDING UP EVEN MORE TO
THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE AN ABRUPT CURVATURE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HDCW ALSO SUGGESTS
THAT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CLOSELY
FOLLOW THESE TWO MODELS... AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR BADIA DE LA PAU WITHIN 48 HOURS
AS A 60-KT SEVERE/INTENSE TROPICAL STORM.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 03/0900H
 INITIAL... 44.4 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
03/2100H... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 45 KT 
04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 55 KT 
04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 
05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 60 KT... COAST OF NORTH BAREN W OF BADIA DE LA PAU
06/0900H... DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.4 NORTH 04.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 43 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 1540 HPT/1440 WST.

FORECASTER RINDLI

BPCT1 HPCOR 031000
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE
BULLETIN À 0900 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1002 HPA].

POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 08 HEURES LOCALES: 44.4 NORD / 04.9 EST
(QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST)

DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1225 KM À LA SUD-OUEST
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST À 43 KM/H.

VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS

TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 40.4N 02.2E
TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.7N 04.6E

CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE.
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1600 HPT.
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