Difference between revisions of "TD21 (2145)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
| Line 1: | Line 1: | ||
{{Storm active2|name=Intense Tropical Storm Twenty-one | {{Storm active2|name=Intense Tropical Storm Twenty-one | ||
|category=intense|type=Intense tropical storm | |category=intense|type=Intense tropical storm | ||
| − | |local time= | + | |local time=0100 |
| − | |date=December | + | |date=December 4 |
|year=2145 | |year=2145 | ||
| − | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png | + | |location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 41.3°N 02.5°E]<br/>About 1195 km (745 miles) north-northwest of Badía de la Pau Military Base<br/>About 710 km (445 miles) north of the coast of Isla de Nàstic |
| − | |winds= | + | |winds=110 km/h (70 mph) |
|windtype=1-minute sustained | |windtype=1-minute sustained | ||
| − | |pressure= | + | |pressure=986 hPa |
| − | |movement=South | + | |movement=South at 38 km/h (24 mph) |
|advisory=latest}} | |advisory=latest}} | ||
<div style="clear: both"></div> | <div style="clear: both"></div> | ||
---- | ---- | ||
| − | TCAD1 HPCWT | + | TCAD1 HPCWT 040344 |
| − | INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY | + | INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 005 |
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU | CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU | ||
| − | + | 1 AM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 3 AM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 | |
| − | + | TWENTY-ONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH... | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT | |
| − | + | FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM | |
| − | WATCH | + | WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY |
| − | LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU. | + | LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE |
| + | WATCH. | ||
| − | A | + | BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT PERFORMED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE METS... |
| − | + | WHICH REPORTED 67-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO | |
| − | + | 60 KT... JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO FORM | |
| − | + | AND IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO 75 KT. | |
| − | IS | + | |
| − | INITIAL MOTION IS | + | INITIAL MOTION IS 185DEG/20KT. |
| − | AT | + | AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY |
| − | SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE | + | SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 02.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 710 KM/445 MI |
| − | + | NORTH OF THE COAST OF NASTIC AND ABOUT 1195 KM/745 MI NNW OF DE LA PAU BASE. | |
| − | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 KM/H... |
| − | + | 70 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 HPA. | |
| − | INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH | + | INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 24 MPH. |
| − | + | ||
| − | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO | + | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 70 MILES... FROM THE |
| − | CENTRE. | + | CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. |
| − | AT | + | AT 3 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR |
| − | + | NASTIC ISLAND HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. | |
| − | AT | + | AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN |
| − | + | TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A | |
| − | + | HURRICANE WATCH. | |
| − | + | A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING | |
| − | + | AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ANYONE ON THE ISLAND OF NASTIC SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY | |
| − | + | AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | THE | + | A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... INCLUDING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... |
| − | + | ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS AT ONCE. | |
| + | |||
| + | A MARINE HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GREAT SARCASTIC BIGHT | ||
| + | BOUNDED BY THE LATITUDES 41.8 NORTH AND 36.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 1 DEGREE EAST... AND | ||
| + | THE WESTERN COAST OF PRUDENTIA. WINDS WILL BE HIGH AND SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THE SHEAR NEAR THE COAST OF PRU05 HAS BEEN BUILDING UP... WHICH COULD POSE A PROBLEM | ||
| + | AS THE STORM NEARS SHORE. ALTHOUGH RAPID WEAKENING OF WINDS MAY TAKE PLACE... HEAVY | ||
| + | RAIN... THE MINIMUM PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH STORM SURGE... MIGHT NOT RELENT. | ||
| + | |||
| + | NO COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSULTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE | ||
| + | PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST... EXCEPT A SLIGHT INTENSITY DOWNGRADE NEAR LANDFALL. HOWEVER... | ||
| + | IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME... | + | INITIAL TIME... 04/0300H |
| − | INITIAL | + | INITIAL... 41.3 N 02.5 E... 60 KT <!-- 04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 --> |
| − | + | 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 <!-- 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 75 KT... CAT 1 --> | |
| − | + | 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 65 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL <!-- 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 65 KT...INLAND W OF BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE --> | |
| − | + | 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND | |
| − | + | 06/0300H...DISSIPATED | |
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.3 NORTH 02.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR |
| − | + | 110 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HPA... MOVING SOUTH AT 38 KM/H. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT | + | THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0740 PAX. AN |
| + | INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED AT 0640 HPT IF THE THREAT TO NASTIC ISLAND GROWS. | ||
| + | A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED AS SOON AS THE STORM BECOMES A HURRICANE. | ||
FORECASTER CALTS | FORECASTER CALTS | ||
---- | ---- | ||
| − | BPCT1 HPCOR | + | BPCT1 HPCOR 040404 |
| − | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO | + | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5 |
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE | ||
| − | BULLETIN À | + | BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 |
| − | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [ | + | TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [986 HPA]. |
| − | POSITION LE | + | POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 01 HEURES LOCALES: 41.3 NORD / 02.5 EST |
| − | (QUARANTE- | + | (QUARANTE-ET-UN DEGRES TROIS NORD ET DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) |
| − | DISTANCE DE | + | DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 710 KM AU NORD. |
| − | DEPLACEMENT: SUD | + | DEPLACEMENT: SUD À 38 KM/H. |
| − | UN AVERTISSEMENT | + | UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. |
| − | UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN | + | UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN À DE LA PAU]. |
| − | + | ||
VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS | VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS | ||
| − | L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 ( | + | L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (65 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 38.3N 03.7E |
CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
| − | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS | + | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 10 HEURES HPT/8 HEURES LOCALES. |
Revision as of 08:17, 24 February 2007
| Intense Tropical Storm Twenty-one | |
|---|---|
| Intense tropical storm | |
| As of: | 0100 local time December 4, 2145 |
| Location: | 41.3°N 02.5°E About 1195 km (745 miles) north-northwest of Badía de la Pau Military Base About 710 km (445 miles) north of the coast of Isla de Nàstic |
| Maximum winds: |
110 km/h (70 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 986 hPa |
| Movement: | South at 38 km/h (24 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD1 HPCWT 040344 INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 3 AM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 TWENTY-ONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT PERFORMED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE METS... WHICH REPORTED 67-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT... JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO FORM AND IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO 75 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 185DEG/20KT. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 02.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 710 KM/445 MI NORTH OF THE COAST OF NASTIC AND ABOUT 1195 KM/745 MI NNW OF DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 KM/H... 70 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 HPA. INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 24 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 70 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. AT 3 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ANYONE ON THE ISLAND OF NASTIC SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... INCLUDING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS AT ONCE. A MARINE HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GREAT SARCASTIC BIGHT BOUNDED BY THE LATITUDES 41.8 NORTH AND 36.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 1 DEGREE EAST... AND THE WESTERN COAST OF PRUDENTIA. WINDS WILL BE HIGH AND SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. THE SHEAR NEAR THE COAST OF PRU05 HAS BEEN BUILDING UP... WHICH COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE STORM NEARS SHORE. ALTHOUGH RAPID WEAKENING OF WINDS MAY TAKE PLACE... HEAVY RAIN... THE MINIMUM PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH STORM SURGE... MIGHT NOT RELENT. NO COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSULTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST... EXCEPT A SLIGHT INTENSITY DOWNGRADE NEAR LANDFALL. HOWEVER... IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/0300H INITIAL... 41.3 N 02.5 E... 60 KT 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 65 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 06/0300H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.3 NORTH 02.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HPA... MOVING SOUTH AT 38 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0740 PAX. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED AT 0640 HPT IF THE THREAT TO NASTIC ISLAND GROWS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED AS SOON AS THE STORM BECOMES A HURRICANE. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 040404 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [986 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 01 HEURES LOCALES: 41.3 NORD / 02.5 EST (QUARANTE-ET-UN DEGRES TROIS NORD ET DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 710 KM AU NORD. DEPLACEMENT: SUD À 38 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN À DE LA PAU]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (65 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 38.3N 03.7E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 10 HEURES HPT/8 HEURES LOCALES.
