Difference between revisions of "TD21 (2145)/Past"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 03 HEURES 50 HPT. | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 03 HEURES 50 HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | ==Advisory 9== | ||
+ | TCAD1 HPCWT 050341 CCA | ||
+ | HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 009... CORRECTED | ||
+ | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE | ||
+ | CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU | ||
+ | 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 5 2145 | ||
+ | CORRECTED VALID TIME OF HURRICANE WARNING | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW BUFFETING THE NORTH BAREN COAST... HURRICANE- | ||
+ | FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY ABOUT AN HOUR AND A HALF AWAY. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF | ||
+ | THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND | ||
+ | HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY WEAKENED... WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LESS ORGANISED | ||
+ | CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS COULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... BUT THE | ||
+ | STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THE CYCLE HAS THE TIME TO COMPLETE. DVORAK T-NO.S | ||
+ | ARE LOWER... T3.5/4.5/W1.0/06HRS FROM HDCW AND AFLE... AND CI4.0 FROM UHWF. BASED | ||
+ | ON THIS... AND THE OBVIOUS WEAKENING SEEN ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED | ||
+ | TO 80 KT... WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED. | ||
+ | |||
+ | INITIAL MOTION IS 135DEG/32KT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE | ||
+ | CENTRED AT LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 355 KM/220 MI NW OF | ||
+ | BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR | ||
+ | 150 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. MINIMUM | ||
+ | CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 978 HPA. HURRICANE 4521 IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST | ||
+ | AT ABOUT 59 KM/H... 37 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | REPEAT... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 360 KM... 225 MILES... FROM THE | ||
+ | CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 KM... | ||
+ | 80 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | AT 3 AM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN | ||
+ | BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE. | ||
+ | |||
+ | A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING | ||
+ | AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THERE IS NOW AN OBVIOUS TRACK OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN SIX | ||
+ | HOURS NORTHWEST OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE... AND WILL CROSS DIRECTLY OVER THE BASE SHORTLY | ||
+ | AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE SHOULD DISSIPATE INLAND WITHIN 18 HOURS. | ||
+ | |||
+ | OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT | ||
+ | INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H | ||
+ | INITIAL... 38.5 N 04.0 E... 80 KT | ||
+ | 05/0900H... 37.5 N 05.0 E... 65 KT...DIRECTLY OVER BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE | ||
+ | 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND | ||
+ | 05/2100H...DISSIPATED | ||
+ | |||
+ | REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 38.5 NORTH 04.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR | ||
+ | 150 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HPA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 59 KM/H. | ||
+ | |||
+ | THE MSHPC WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THE STORM SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL... WITH | ||
+ | A FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0935 HPT. | ||
+ | |||
+ | FORECASTER JOHNSON | ||
+ | |||
+ | ---- | ||
+ | BPCT1 HPCOR 050353 | ||
+ | OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 9 | ||
+ | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE | ||
+ | BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 DÉCEMBRE 2145 | ||
+ | |||
+ | OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [978 HPA]. | ||
+ | |||
+ | POSITION LE 5 DÉCEMBRE À 3 HEURES HPT: 38.5 NORD / 04.0 EST | ||
+ | (TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES EST) | ||
+ | |||
+ | DISTANCE DU BADÍA DE LA PAU: 355 KM AU NORD-OUEST. | ||
+ | DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST À 59 KM/H. | ||
+ | |||
+ | UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05. | ||
+ | |||
+ | CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. | ||
+ | PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 09 HEURES 50 HPT. |
Revision as of 00:17, 1 March 2007
Contents
Advisory 1
TCAD1 HPCWT 030340 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES COAST... A RARE DECEMBER CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND... IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT THIS STORM WILL NOT BE NAMED DUE TO THE CHANGE IN NAMING SYSTEMS FOR NEXT SEASON. IF IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... IT WILL BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM 4521. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.0 FROM HDCW/AFLE/UHWF... MEANING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL... AND COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. IT COULD EASILY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION IS 195/10. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 05.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1000 KM... 625 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH. SSTS ARE NEAR 26 DEG C... BARELY ENOUGH FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE... WITH HIGH BUT DECREASING SHEAR VALUES. IN THE PATH OF TWENTY-ONE LIES A POCKET OF EXTREMELY LOW SHEAR AND 27C WATERS... WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MINIATURE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT. THE COMPUTER MODELS COULD BE BETTER... BUT FOR A DECEMBER CYCLONE THEY HAVE A RELATIVELY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. ALL AGREE ON A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS... AND ALL AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT... THE MODELS DIVERGE... ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON A RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE BOLD AND CALL FOR A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM HITTING PRU05. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/0300H INITIAL... 45.0 N 05.5 E... 30 KT 03/1500H... 44.0 N 04.6 E... 35 KT 04/0300H... 42.7 N 03.3 E... 45 KT 04/1500H... 41.0 N 02.8 E... 50 KT 05/0300H... 38.8 N 02.8 E... 55 KT 06/0300H... 37.1 N 05.3 E... 45 KT... INLAND NEAR DE LA PAD/PRU05 07/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 45.0 NORTH 05.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA... MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0840 WST. FORECASTER RINDLI
BPCT1 HPCOR 030400 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 0300 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1004 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 02 HEURES LOCALES: 45.0 NORD / 05.5 EST (QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES NORD ET CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1000 KM À L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 19 KM/H. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 42.7N 03.3E FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 38.8N 02.8E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE/SUR TERRE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 37.1N 05.3E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1000 HPT.
Advisory 2
TCAD1 HPCWT 030940 TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... 18TH OF SEASON... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSENSUS T2.0... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 30 KT OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS... BUT BASED ON A BUOY REPORT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WAS OF 32 KT WINDS IN THE WEAKEST QUAD... AS WELL AS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL MOTION IS 210/23. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1225 KM... 765 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THERE ARE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM... WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND WE COULD EASILY HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN MINIMAL HURRICANE. SHEAR TENDENCY IS FALLING IN THE AREA... AND A PATCH OF 5-10 KT SHEAR/26-27 DEG C WATER LIE AHEAD OF TS21. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FURTHER ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO IT SPEEDING UP. THE AFLE GOT CAUGHT AND GOT LEFT BEHIND.... INITIALISING THE STORM TOO FAR NORTHEAST FROM ITS ACTUAL POSITION. HDCW AND UHWF ARE MOST RELIABLE HERE... WITH UHWF INITIALISING THE SYSTEM AT 35 KT AS WELL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL SPEEDING UP EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE AN ABRUPT CURVATURE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HDCW ALSO SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THESE TWO MODELS... AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR BADIA DE LA PAU WITHIN 48 HOURS AS A 60-KT SEVERE/INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/0900H INITIAL... 44.4 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 03/2100H... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 45 KT 04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 55 KT 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 60 KT... COAST OF NORTH BAREN W OF BADIA DE LA PAU 06/0900H... DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.4 NORTH 04.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 43 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 1540 HPT/1440 WST. FORECASTER RINDLI
BPCT1 HPCOR 031000 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 0900 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1002 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 08 HEURES LOCALES: 44.4 NORD / 04.9 EST (QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1225 KM À LA SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST À 43 KM/H. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 40.4N 02.2E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.7N 04.6E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1600 HPT.
Advisory 3
TCAD1 HPCWT 031538 TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL STORM 4521 CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW MIXED. HDCW AND UHWF BOTH ISSUED DVORAK SATFIXES WITH RATINGS OF T3.0/45 KT... WHILE AFLE ISSUED A SATFIX AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE STORM AND ASSUMING THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE 40 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. INITIAL MOTION IS 190/20. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 1580 KM... 985 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 70 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 23 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 KM... 40 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 3 PM HPT... THE MSHPC RECOMMENDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND. NO CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NEGATIVE SHEAR TENDENCY AND WATERS BARELY WARM ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW OFF... EXCEPT THE TWO THAT SEEM RELIABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE UNITED HEARTLAND WEATHER FORECASTING AND HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION FOR WEATHER (UHWF/HDCW) MODELS. BOTH INITIALISE THE STORM AT 40 OR 45 KT... AND DEAL WELL WITH THE EXPECTED RECURVATURE OF THE STORM DUE TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW OF NASTIC ISLAND. BOTH MODELS NOW PEAK THE SYSTEM AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL... WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO DRASTIC. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOW GO WITH LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/1500H INITIAL... 42.7 N 04.2 E... 40 KT 04/0300H... 41.3 N 02.6 E... 55 KT 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 75 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL 05/1500H... 37.9 N 06.0 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 06/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 42.7 NORTH 04.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 38 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 2140 HPT/1940 PAX. FORECASTER HUNTER
BPCT1 HPCOR 031600 CCA TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 CORRECTIF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 1500 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [999 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 14 HEURES LOCALES: 42.7 NORD / 04.2 EST (QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES SEPT NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1580 KM À LA SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST À 38 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (70 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 39.7N 02.5E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE/SUR TERRE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.9N 06.0E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 2200 HPT.
Advisory 4
TCAD1 HPCWT 032142 INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 PM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL STORM 4521 REACHES INTENSE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND GROWS IN SIZE... HURRICANE WATCH NOW ISSUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU. A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND NAVY OF 46 KT WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTRE CONFIRMS MIXED DVORAK READINGS OF T3.0 AND T3.5 FROM AFLE AND HDCW AND UHWF RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY... BASED ON THE REPORT... THE DATA T-NUMBERS... AND SUITABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING... IS SET TO 50 KT... MAKING THIS SYSTEM AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. GUSTS TO 60 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 190DEG/29KT. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 03.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1905 KM... 1190 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 991 HPA. INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 54 KM/H... 33 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 95 KM... 60 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. 50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 KM... 10 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND. AT 9 PM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU... WHICH INCLUDES THE MILITARY BASE IN THE BAY. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POSSIBILITY... ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD FOR THE SUSTAINANCE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHEAR BUILDS UP AROUND THE COAST OF PRU05 WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE LOST IT AND HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PRIOR ONE... AND CALLS FOR A LANDFALL AS A 65-KT MINIMAL HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/2100H INITIAL... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 50 KT 04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 80 KT... CAT 1 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 65 KT...INLAND W OF BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 42.1 NORTH 03.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HPA... MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 54 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0340 HPT/0140 PAX. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 032155 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 2100 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [991 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 42.1 NORD / 03.4 EST (QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES UN NORD ET TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1905 KM À SUD-SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST À 54 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE RESTE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN À DE LA PAU]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (80 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 39.2N 03.0E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 0400 HPT.
Advisory 5
TCAD1 HPCWT 040344 INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 3 AM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 TWENTY-ONE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS JUST SHORT OF HURRICANE STRENGTH... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. BASED ON A RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT PERFORMED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE METS... WHICH REPORTED 67-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT... JUST SHY OF HURRICANE STRENGTH. AN EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE HAS BEGUN TO FORM AND IS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO 75 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 185DEG/20KT. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 41.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 02.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 710 KM/445 MI NORTH OF THE COAST OF NASTIC AND ABOUT 1195 KM/745 MI NNW OF DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 KM/H... 70 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 986 HPA. INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 24 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 70 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. AT 3 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WATCH. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ANYONE ON THE ISLAND OF NASTIC SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS... INCLUDING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS AT ONCE. A MARINE HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GREAT SARCASTIC BIGHT BOUNDED BY THE LATITUDES 41.8 NORTH AND 36.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 1 DEGREE EAST... AND THE WESTERN COAST OF PRUDENTIA. WINDS WILL BE HIGH AND SEAS WILL BE VERY ROUGH. THE SHEAR NEAR THE COAST OF PRU05 HAS BEEN BUILDING UP... WHICH COULD POSE A PROBLEM AS THE STORM NEARS SHORE. ALTHOUGH RAPID WEAKENING OF WINDS MAY TAKE PLACE... HEAVY RAIN... THE MINIMUM PRESSURE... AND THE HIGH STORM SURGE... MIGHT NOT RELENT. NO COMPUTER MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSULTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST... EXCEPT A SLIGHT INTENSITY DOWNGRADE NEAR LANDFALL. HOWEVER... IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/0300H INITIAL... 41.3 N 02.5 E... 60 KT 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 65 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 06/0300H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.3 NORTH 02.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 HPA... MOVING SOUTH AT 38 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0740 PAX. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY MAY BE ISSUED AT 0640 HPT IF THE THREAT TO NASTIC ISLAND GROWS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED AS SOON AS THE STORM BECOMES A HURRICANE. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 040404 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [986 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 01 HEURES LOCALES: 41.3 NORD / 02.5 EST (QUARANTE-ET-UN DEGRES TROIS NORD ET DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 710 KM AU NORD. DEPLACEMENT: SUD À 38 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN À DE LA PAU]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (65 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 38.3N 03.7E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 10 HEURES HPT/8 HEURES LOCALES.
Advisory 6
TCAD1 HPCWT 040939 HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE "PHISHIN" (4521) ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 AM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 9 AM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 INTENSE TROPICAL STORM 21 STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE AND IS GIVEN THE UNOFFICIAL NAME "PHISHIN" [FIE-SHEEN]... TAKEN FROM THE 21ST LETTERS OF THE GREEK [PHI] AND PHOENICIAN [SHIN] ALPHABETS... FOR EASIER ASSOCIATION. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF NASTIC. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FURTHER SOUTH TO OVIEDO. AN EYE IS NOW OBVIOUS ON VISIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. RADAR IMAGES FROM NASTIC ISLAND SHOW THE OUTER BANDS OF THE GROWING STORM ALREADY PELTING RAIN ONTO THE ISLAND. A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT RECORDED A FLW OF 77 KT AND AN SLP OF 982 HPA. BASED ON THIS... INITIAL STRENGTH IS SET AT 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 175DEG/16KT. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE/"PHISHIN" WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 40.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 02.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 485 KM/300 MI NORTH OF THE COAST OF NASTIC AND ABOUT 1065 KM/665 MI NNW OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 130 KM/H... 80 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 HPA AS MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT. HURRICANE "PHISIN" IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 30 KM/H... 16 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM... 90 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 9 AM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. ANYONE ON THE ISLAND OF NASTIC SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. AT 9 AM HPT A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT... INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS INCLUDING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. COMPLETE ALL PREPARATIONS AT ONCE. AT 9 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT SOUTHWARDS TO AND INCLUDING THE SETTLEMENT OF OVIEDO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS ABOVE 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MARINE WIND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE SHEAR NEAR THE COAST OF PRU05 HAS DRASTICALLY FALLEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS DANGEROUS AS "PHISIN" COULD MAKE ONE FINAL RAPID STRENGTHENING RIGHT BEFORE LANDFALL. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LANDFALL AT 90 KT... OR A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... THANKS TO THE SUDDENLY VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS NEAR THE COASTLINE. HOWEVER... FOLLOWING THAT... THE TERRAIN OF THE AREA WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING... WHICH COULD POSE THE THREAT OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. A MAJOR HUMANITARIAN DISASTER IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/0900H INITIAL... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 90 KT...JUST INLAND W OF BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 40.4 NORTH 02.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 130 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HPA... MOVING SOUTH AT 30 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY-DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED AT 1545 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 040953 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 6 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 09 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [982 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 07 HEURES LOCALES: 40.4 NORD / 02.2 EST (QUARANTE DEGRES QUATRE NORD ET DEUX DEGRES DEUX EST) DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 385 KM AU NORD. DEPLACEMENT: SUD À 30 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST RESTER EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST RESTER EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN SUD À DE LA PAU]. UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [DE LA PAU SUD À OVIEDO]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 2 (90 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 37.7N 04.6E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 13 HEURES 50 LOCALES.
Advisory 7
TCAD1 HPCWT 041544 HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 PM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 3 PM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 AFTER SOME DISCUSSION... THE MSHPC HAS DECIDED TO DROP THE UNOFFICIAL NAME FOR THIS SYSTEM. HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE IS NOW AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NASTIC ISLAND... AND IS BUFFETING THE ISLAND WITH STRONG GUSTS WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AS WELL AS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KT. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF NASTIC. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO OVIEDO. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE WELL DEFINED. UHWF REPORTED T5.0/4.0/D1.0/12HR IN THEIR 1433 FIX... WHILE HDCW REPORTED A SATFIX OF T4.5. CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO ALMOST -80 C... AND STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE SYSTEM. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 80KT... ON THE LOWER END OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. GUSTS ARE ESTIMATED TO 95 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 130DEG/18KT. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE CENTRED AT LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 02.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 355 KM/220 MI NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF NASTIC ISLAND... AND ABOUT 970 KM/545 MI NW OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H... 95 MPH... MAKING HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE A HIGH-END CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 977 HPA. HURRICANE 4521 IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 33 KM/H... 21 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 95 KM... 60 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 3 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND. AT 3 PM HPT THE HURRICANE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND AND THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTH TO DE LA PAU. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. AT 3 PM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT SOUTHWARDS TO AND INCLUDING THE SETTLEMENT OF OVIEDO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS INCLUDING WINDS ABOVE 34 KT ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. MAKE PREPARATORY PLANS SHOULD THE NEED FOR EVACUATION ARISE. MARINE WIND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SURROUNDING THE STORM ARE VERY CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION... ALTHOUGH THE UNPREDICTABLE SEA CONDITIONS NEAR THE PRU05 COAST CONTINUE TO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE FORECAST. SHEAR HAS ONCE AGAIN INCREASED... WHICH WOULD SUGGEST WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ONCE THE STORM IS INLAND. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/1500H INITIAL... 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 80 KT... CAT 1 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.9 E... 80 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 06/0300H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 39.7 NORTH 02.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 HPA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 33 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 2145 HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
BPCT1 HPCOR 041553 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 7 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 15 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [977 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 13 HEURES LOCALES: 39.7 NORD / 02.5 EST (TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES SEPT NORD ET DEUX DEGRES CINQ EST) DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 355 KM AU NORD-EST. DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST À 33 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST RESTER EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN SUD À DE LA PAU]. UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST RESTER EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [DE LA PAU SUD À OVIEDO]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS DÉPRESSION SUR TERRE SE DISSIPANT, CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 37.9N 05.5E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 19 HEURES 50 LOCALES.
Advisory 8
TCAD1 HPCWT 042144 HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 008 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 PM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT DECEMBER 4 2145 NASTIC ISLAND RECORDED A MAXIMUM GUST OF 77 KT AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 64 KT AS THE HURRICANE PASSED NEAR IT. THE HURRICANE SHOULD NOW START TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS IT SPEEDS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF NASTIC. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO OVIEDO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE SYSTEM HAS NOW LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK... 90 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS REACHED BY A CONSENSUS T5.0 FROM HDCW, UHWF AND AFLE. SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD NOW COMMENCE. GUSTS TO 105 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 135DEG/33KT. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE CENTRED AT LATITUDE 39.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 03.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 355 KM/220 MI EAST- NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF NASTIC ISLAND... AND ABOUT 680 KM/425 MI NW OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 165 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 972 HPA. HURRICANE 4521 IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 62 KM/H... 38 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 210 KM... 130 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 95 KM... 60 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS PROJECTED PATH... THE DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT AND BAY SHOULD BE RECEIVING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS IN ABOUT SIX HOURS. AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND. AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. RESIDENTS WITHIN THIS AREA SHOULD TAKE COVER IMMEDIATELY AND WAIT FOR THE STORM TO PASS. AT 9 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT SOUTHWARDS TO AND INCLUDING THE SETTLEMENT OF OVIEDO HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. MARINE WIND WARNINGS FOR HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND STORM-FORCE WINDS REMAIN IN EFFECT. IT IS NOW CERTAIN THAT THE STORM HAS PEAKED AND IS NOW WEAKENING SLOWLY. HOWEVER... THIS DOES NOT REMOVE THE THREAT OF FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES ONCE THE STORM IS INLAND... WHICH IT SHOULD BE WITHIN 18 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 04/2100H INITIAL... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 90 KT... CAT 2 05/0900H... 37.6 N 04.6 E... 75 KT...JUST INLAND W OF BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 39.2 NORTH 03.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 165 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HPA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 62 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 0345 HPT. FORECASTER JOHNSON/GUNTHER
BPCT1 HPCOR 042153 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 8 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 21 HEURES HPT, 4 DÉCEMBRE 2145 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [972 HPA]. POSITION LE 4 DÉCEMBRE A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 39.2 NORD / 03.0 EST (TRENTE-NEUF DEGRES DEUX NORD ET TROIS DEGRES EST) DISTANCE DE L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC: 355 KM A L'EST-NORD-EST. DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST À 62 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST RESTER EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN SUD À DE LA PAU]. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 03 HEURES 50 HPT.
Advisory 9
TCAD1 HPCWT 050341 CCA HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 009... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 5 2145 CORRECTED VALID TIME OF HURRICANE WARNING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW BUFFETING THE NORTH BAREN COAST... HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY ABOUT AN HOUR AND A HALF AWAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY WEAKENED... WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LESS ORGANISED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS COULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... BUT THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THE CYCLE HAS THE TIME TO COMPLETE. DVORAK T-NO.S ARE LOWER... T3.5/4.5/W1.0/06HRS FROM HDCW AND AFLE... AND CI4.0 FROM UHWF. BASED ON THIS... AND THE OBVIOUS WEAKENING SEEN ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT... WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED. INITIAL MOTION IS 135DEG/32KT. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE CENTRED AT LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 355 KM/220 MI NW OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 978 HPA. HURRICANE 4521 IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 59 KM/H... 37 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. REPEAT... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 360 KM... 225 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 KM... 80 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 3 AM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THERE IS NOW AN OBVIOUS TRACK OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS NORTHWEST OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE... AND WILL CROSS DIRECTLY OVER THE BASE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE SHOULD DISSIPATE INLAND WITHIN 18 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H INITIAL... 38.5 N 04.0 E... 80 KT 05/0900H... 37.5 N 05.0 E... 65 KT...DIRECTLY OVER BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 38.5 NORTH 04.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HPA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 59 KM/H. THE MSHPC WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THE STORM SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL... WITH A FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0935 HPT. FORECASTER JOHNSON
BPCT1 HPCOR 050353 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 9 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 DÉCEMBRE 2145 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [978 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 DÉCEMBRE À 3 HEURES HPT: 38.5 NORD / 04.0 EST (TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES EST) DISTANCE DU BADÍA DE LA PAU: 355 KM AU NORD-OUEST. DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST À 59 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 09 HEURES 50 HPT.