Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

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  WXDD1 XHWS 180245
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  WXDD1 XHWS 181145
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  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 1
+
  REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 2
 
  HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
 
  HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
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  2:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146
+
  11:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS
+
  A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
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  THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION CENTRE ON
+
IS PRESENTLY INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.
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  RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A HWS RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
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  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 34 KNOTS...ABOUT 29
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  WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANT SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING...IF NECESSARY.
+
  AT THE SURFACE. NO CLOSED LOW REPORTED YET. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT
 +
  VERY WELL-ORGANISED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREAD ACROSS THE
 +
ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...ESPECIALLY HEAVY ON THE ULE MILITARY BASE.
 
   
 
   
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  RECENTLY...TENDIUM REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 28 KT...GUSTING TO 36 KT.
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  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...
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  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME FOR ALL ISLANDS
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  EXCEPT ULE ISLAND...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
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  OF ODIPOUS. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ACROSS THE
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  HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF
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ISLANDS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 150 MM...6 INCHES...COULD CAUSE SUDDEN
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NECESSARY.
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FLASH FLOODING AT LOW GROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY.
+
 
   
 
   
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  OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY...
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  SINCE OUR LAST DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME MORE
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THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHWARDS. MOST
+
  DISORGANISED. THE PATCHES OF CONVECTION SHOW NO SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION
−
  MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONEX /HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION/...
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  AT THIS POINT...SO EVEN IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A CLOSED LOW
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AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEEPEN AGAIN NORTH OF ODIPOUS AND REFORM
+
  IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CENTRE WILL RESTART ADVISORIES...NOT
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  INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHICH WAY IT WILL GO AT THAT POINT...IS FAIRLY
+
  IMMEDIATELY ANYWAY. MODELS RUN AT 06 HPT...INITIALISED THE GEOGRAPHICAL
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  SPLIT. HDCW...AFLE...AND THE IN-HOUSE HWS MODEL RUNS ALL BRING IT ALONG
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  CENTRE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS/MESS NORTH OF ODIPOUS...WHICH IS FURTHER
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THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN
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  NORTH THAN THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT NINE HOURS
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  SEA TOWARDS EASTERN PRUDENTIA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE SMALLER MODELS
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AGO FORECAST. IF THIS IS RIGHT...FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST
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  BRING IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KOMPA RU. THIS FORCED CONEX TO BE SLIGHTLY
+
  A QUICK REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.
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  EAST OF THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY REGENERATED
+
−
  CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN WEST KOMPA RU.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF  
 
  THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF  
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  CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE.
 
  CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE.
 
   
 
   
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  FORECASTER MICHAELS/RYAN
+
  FORECASTER MICHAELS

Revision as of 05:55, 16 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
WXDD1 XHWS 181145
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 2
HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU
11:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146

A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS PRESENTLY INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.
MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 34 KNOTS...ABOUT 29
AT THE SURFACE. NO CLOSED LOW REPORTED YET. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT
VERY WELL-ORGANISED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...ESPECIALLY HEAVY ON THE ULE MILITARY BASE.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...
EXCEPT ULE ISLAND...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF
NECESSARY.

SINCE OUR LAST DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME MORE
DISORGANISED. THE PATCHES OF CONVECTION SHOW NO SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION
AT THIS POINT...SO EVEN IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A CLOSED LOW
IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CENTRE WILL RESTART ADVISORIES...NOT
IMMEDIATELY ANYWAY. MODELS RUN AT 06 HPT...INITIALISED THE GEOGRAPHICAL
CENTRE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS/MESS NORTH OF ODIPOUS...WHICH IS FURTHER
NORTH THAN THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT NINE HOURS
AGO FORECAST. IF THIS IS RIGHT...FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST
A QUICK REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY TIME WILL TELL.

THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED
IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS
NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION
IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE...
A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE
CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE.

FORECASTER MICHAELS
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