TD21 (2145)/Past
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Contents
Advisory 1
TCAD1 HPCWT 030340 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE WESTERN TERRITORIES COAST... A RARE DECEMBER CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND... IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IT HAS BEEN DECIDED THAT THIS STORM WILL NOT BE NAMED DUE TO THE CHANGE IN NAMING SYSTEMS FOR NEXT SEASON. IF IT REACHES TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... IT WILL BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL STORM 4521. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.0 FROM HDCW/AFLE/UHWF... MEANING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THIS SYSTEM IS RATHER SMALL... AND COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY. IT COULD EASILY REACH TROPICAL STORM STATUS AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION IS 195/10. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 05.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1000 KM... 625 MILES... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH. SSTS ARE NEAR 26 DEG C... BARELY ENOUGH FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE... WITH HIGH BUT DECREASING SHEAR VALUES. IN THE PATH OF TWENTY-ONE LIES A POCKET OF EXTREMELY LOW SHEAR AND 27C WATERS... WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE MINIATURE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION IF CONDITIONS ARE RIGHT. THE COMPUTER MODELS COULD BE BETTER... BUT FOR A DECEMBER CYCLONE THEY HAVE A RELATIVELY GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SYSTEM. ALL AGREE ON A TROPICAL STORM WITHIN 24 HOURS OR LESS... AND ALL AGREE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND THAT... THE MODELS DIVERGE... ALTHOUGH MOST AGREE ON A RECURVING TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE BOLD AND CALL FOR A 55-KT TROPICAL STORM HITTING PRU05. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/0300H INITIAL... 45.0 N 05.5 E... 30 KT 03/1500H... 44.0 N 04.6 E... 35 KT 04/0300H... 42.7 N 03.3 E... 45 KT 04/1500H... 41.0 N 02.8 E... 50 KT 05/0300H... 38.8 N 02.8 E... 55 KT 06/0300H... 37.1 N 05.3 E... 45 KT... INLAND NEAR DE LA PAD/PRU05 07/0300H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 45.0 NORTH 05.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA... MOVING SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0940 HPT/0840 WST. FORECASTER RINDLI
BPCT1 HPCOR 030400 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 0300 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 DÉPRESSION TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1004 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 02 HEURES LOCALES: 45.0 NORD / 05.5 EST (QUARANTE-CINQ DEGRES NORD ET CINQ DEGRES CINQ EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1000 KM À L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST À 19 KM/H. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 42.7N 03.3E FORTE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 38.8N 02.8E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE/SUR TERRE (45 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 72H PAR 37.1N 05.3E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1000 HPT.
Advisory 2
TCAD1 HPCWT 030940 TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... 18TH OF SEASON... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN CONSENSUS T2.0... WHICH CORRESPONDS TO 30 KT OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS... BUT BASED ON A BUOY REPORT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WAS OF 32 KT WINDS IN THE WEAKEST QUAD... AS WELL AS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT/TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. INITIAL MOTION IS 210/23. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1225 KM... 765 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... AND COULD EASILY FLUCTUATE HIGHER. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA. TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 43 KM/H... 27 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THERE ARE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM... WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM COULD INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND WE COULD EASILY HAVE A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN MINIMAL HURRICANE. SHEAR TENDENCY IS FALLING IN THE AREA... AND A PATCH OF 5-10 KT SHEAR/26-27 DEG C WATER LIE AHEAD OF TS21. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE DIVERGED FURTHER ON THIS SYSTEM DUE TO IT SPEEDING UP. THE AFLE GOT CAUGHT AND GOT LEFT BEHIND.... INITIALISING THE STORM TOO FAR NORTHEAST FROM ITS ACTUAL POSITION. HDCW AND UHWF ARE MOST RELIABLE HERE... WITH UHWF INITIALISING THE SYSTEM AT 35 KT AS WELL. BOTH MODELS INDICATE A GRADUAL SPEEDING UP EVEN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE AN ABRUPT CURVATURE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE HDCW ALSO SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A 65-KT HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THESE TWO MODELS... AND CALLS FOR LANDFALL NEAR BADIA DE LA PAU WITHIN 48 HOURS AS A 60-KT SEVERE/INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/0900H INITIAL... 44.4 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 03/2100H... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 45 KT 04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 55 KT 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 60 KT... COAST OF NORTH BAREN W OF BADIA DE LA PAU 06/0900H... DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 44.4 NORTH 04.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 43 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 1540 HPT/1440 WST. FORECASTER RINDLI
BPCT1 HPCOR 031000 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 0900 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [1002 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 08 HEURES LOCALES: 44.4 NORD / 04.9 EST (QUARANTE-QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES NEUF EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1225 KM À LA SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST À 43 KM/H. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (55 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 40.4N 02.2E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE (60 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.7N 04.6E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 1600 HPT.
Advisory 3
TCAD1 HPCWT 031538 TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM WST/LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL STORM 4521 CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW MIXED. HDCW AND UHWF BOTH ISSUED DVORAK SATFIXES WITH RATINGS OF T3.0/45 KT... WHILE AFLE ISSUED A SATFIX AT T2.5/35 KT. BASED ON THE GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE STORM AND ASSUMING THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE 40 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. INITIAL MOTION IS 190/20. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 1580 KM... 985 MILES... SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 70 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA. TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 38 KM/H... 23 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 KM... 40 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 3 PM HPT... THE MSHPC RECOMMENDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND. NO CHANGE TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS... NEGATIVE SHEAR TENDENCY AND WATERS BARELY WARM ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW SEEMS UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE NOW OFF... EXCEPT THE TWO THAT SEEM RELIABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, THE UNITED HEARTLAND WEATHER FORECASTING AND HEARTLAND DATA COLLECTION FOR WEATHER (UHWF/HDCW) MODELS. BOTH INITIALISE THE STORM AT 40 OR 45 KT... AND DEAL WELL WITH THE EXPECTED RECURVATURE OF THE STORM DUE TO A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW OF NASTIC ISLAND. BOTH MODELS NOW PEAK THE SYSTEM AS AN 85-KT HURRICANE JUST BEFORE LANDFALL... WHICH SEEMS A BIT TOO DRASTIC. HOWEVER... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL NOW GO WITH LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/1500H INITIAL... 42.7 N 04.2 E... 40 KT 04/0300H... 41.3 N 02.6 E... 55 KT 04/1500H... 39.7 N 02.5 E... 70 KT... CAT 1 05/0300H... 38.3 N 03.7 E... 75 KT... APPROACHING LANDFALL 05/1500H... 37.9 N 06.0 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 06/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 42.7 NORTH 04.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA... MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 38 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NASTIC ISLAND. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 2140 HPT/1940 PAX. FORECASTER HUNTER
BPCT1 HPCOR 031600 CCA TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 3 CORRECTIF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 1500 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [999 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 14 HEURES LOCALES: 42.7 NORD / 04.2 EST (QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES SEPT NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES DEUX EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1580 KM À LA SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST À 38 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (70 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 39.7N 02.5E TEMPÊTE TROPICALE/SUR TERRE (40 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 48H PAR 37.9N 06.0E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 2200 HPT.
Advisory 4
TCAD1 HPCWT 032142 INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 7 PM PAX/LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT DECEMBER 3 2145 TROPICAL STORM 4521 REACHES INTENSE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AND GROWS IN SIZE... HURRICANE WATCH NOW ISSUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW ALSO IN EFFECT FOR LA ISLA DE NÀSTIC. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARDS TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU. A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND NAVY OF 46 KT WHILE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM CENTRE CONFIRMS MIXED DVORAK READINGS OF T3.0 AND T3.5 FROM AFLE AND HDCW AND UHWF RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY... BASED ON THE REPORT... THE DATA T-NUMBERS... AND SUITABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING... IS SET TO 50 KT... MAKING THIS SYSTEM AN INTENSE TROPICAL STORM. GUSTS TO 60 KT. INITIAL MOTION IS 190DEG/29KT. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 42.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 03.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1905 KM... 1190 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COMMEMORATION LANDMARK, WT, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE INCREASED TO AT LEAST 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 991 HPA. INTENSE TROPICAL STORM TWENTY-ONE IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 54 KM/H... 33 MPH. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 95 KM... 60 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. 50-KT WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 KM... 10 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND. AT 9 PM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN TERRITORY LINE SOUTHWARD TO THE ESTABLISHMENT OF DE LA PAU... WHICH INCLUDES THE MILITARY BASE IN THE BAY. RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED A POSSIBILITY... ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN GOOD FOR THE SUSTAINANCE OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. SHEAR BUILDS UP AROUND THE COAST OF PRU05 WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE LOST IT AND HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE PRIOR ONE... AND CALLS FOR A LANDFALL AS A 65-KT MINIMAL HURRICANE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 03/2100H INITIAL... 42.1 N 03.4 E... 50 KT 04/0900H... 40.4 N 02.2 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 04/2100H... 39.2 N 03.0 E... 80 KT... CAT 1 05/0900H... 37.7 N 04.6 E... 65 KT...INLAND W OF BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 42.1 NORTH 03.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 HPA... MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 54 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 0340 HPT/0140 PAX. FORECASTER CALTS
BPCT1 HPCOR 032155 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 4 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 2100 HPT, 3 DÉCEMBRE 2145 TEMPÊTE TROPICALE INTENSE VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [999 HPA]. POSITION LE 3 DÉCEMBRE A 19 HEURES LOCALES: 42.1 NORD / 03.4 EST (QUARANTE-DEUX DEGRES UN NORD ET TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST) DISTANCE DE COMMEMORATION LANDMARK: 1905 KM À SUD-SUD-OUEST DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-OUEST À 54 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE RESTE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR L'ÎLE DE NÀSTIC. UNE VEILLE DE TEMPÊTE TROPICALE EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05 [NORTH BAREN À DE LA PAU]. VOICI LES INTENSITES ET POSITIONS PREVUES DE CE SYSTEME DEPRESSIONNAIRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS L'OURAGAN CATÉGORIE 1 (80 KT), CENTRE POSITIONNE DANS 24H PAR 39.2N 03.0E CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 0400 HPT.
