TD21 (2145)
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| Hurricane Twenty-one | |
|---|---|
| Category 1 hurricane | |
| As of: | 0200 local time December 5, 2145 |
| Location: | 38.5°N 04.0°E About 355 km (220 miles) northwest of the Badía de la Pau military base |
| Maximum winds: |
150 km/h (90 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 978 hPa |
| Movement: | Southeast at 59 km/h (37 mph) |
| See latest advisory below. Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD1 HPCWT 050341 CCA HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE (4521) ADVISORY 009... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE CYCLONESVILLE, WESTERN TERRITORIES BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME DECEMBER 5 2145 CORRECTED VALID TIME OF HURRICANE WARNING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE NOW BUFFETING THE NORTH BAREN COAST... HURRICANE- FORCE WINDS ARE ONLY ABOUT AN HOUR AND A HALF AWAY. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH BAREN FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE TERRITORY SOUTH TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT. THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR NASTIC ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE SYSTEM HAS DEFINITELY WEAKENED... WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND LESS ORGANISED CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE. THIS COULD BE AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE... BUT THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL BEFORE THE CYCLE HAS THE TIME TO COMPLETE. DVORAK T-NO.S ARE LOWER... T3.5/4.5/W1.0/06HRS FROM HDCW AND AFLE... AND CI4.0 FROM UHWF. BASED ON THIS... AND THE OBVIOUS WEAKENING SEEN ON SATELLITE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT... WITH FURTHER WEAKENING EXPECTED. INITIAL MOTION IS 135DEG/32KT. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE TO BE CENTRED AT LATITUDE 38.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 04.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 355 KM/220 MI NW OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H... 105 MPH... MAKING HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 978 HPA. HURRICANE 4521 IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 59 KM/H... 37 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. REPEAT... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 360 KM... 225 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE EAST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 KM... 80 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. AT 3 AM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS FOR THE COAST OF PRU05 FROM THE NORTH BAREN BORDER SOUTHWARDS TO DE LA PAU SETTLEMENT INCLUDING THE BADIA DE LA PAU MILITARY BASE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS OR LESS. THERE IS NOW AN OBVIOUS TRACK OF THE STORM. THE STORM WILL MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS NORTHWEST OF BADIA DE LA PAU BASE... AND WILL CROSS DIRECTLY OVER THE BASE SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE TWENTY-ONE SHOULD DISSIPATE INLAND WITHIN 18 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/0300H INITIAL... 38.5 N 04.0 E... 80 KT 05/0900H... 37.5 N 05.0 E... 65 KT...DIRECTLY OVER BADÍA DE LA PAU BASE 05/1500H... 37.9 N 05.5 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 05/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 38.5 NORTH 04.0 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 150 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 HPA... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 59 KM/H. THE MSHPC WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THE STORM SHORTLY AFTER LANDFALL... WITH A FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0935 HPT. FORECASTER JOHNSON
BPCT1 HPCOR 050353 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN (4521)... BULLETIN NUMERO 9 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/CENTRE DE PRÉVISION D'OURAGAN À CYCLONESVILLE BULLETIN À 03 HEURES HPT, 5 DÉCEMBRE 2145 OURAGAN VINGT-ET-UN/4521 [978 HPA]. POSITION LE 5 DÉCEMBRE À 3 HEURES HPT: 38.5 NORD / 04.0 EST (TRENTE-HUIT DEGRES CINQ NORD ET QUATRE DEGRES EST) DISTANCE DU BADÍA DE LA PAU: 355 KM AU NORD-OUEST. DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST À 59 KM/H. UN AVERTISSEMENT D'OURAGAN EST EN VIGUEUR POUR LE PRU05. CE BULLETIN EST A PRESENT TERMINE. PROCHAIN BULLETIN ENREGISTRE VERS 09 HEURES 50 HPT.
