Atlantian Oceania tropical cyclones/Past advisories
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Tropical Storm Petros (Bazalonia)
Advisory 1
SPECIAL ADVISORY UN-NAMED SYSTEM ADVISORY 001...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR FORECAST PARAGRAPH OVERLAND SYSTEM NOTED OVER GEISENFRIED. CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWEST... AND EXPECTED TO EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER BY 12 HRS. CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS. EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST. SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE REPORTED BY A BAZALONIAN NAVY VESSEL TO BE NEAR 33 DEG C... PERFECT FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING... DESPITE THE RELATIVE SOUTH- NESS OF THE CENTRE OF THE STORM, IN A SUBTROPICAL RATHER THAN A TROPICAL REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WILL BE ISSUED WHEN NECESSARY. IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... AS THERE IS NO SET NAMING SCHEME FOR ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... THIS STORM WILL EITHER GO UNNAMED... BE NAMED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT... OR BE NAMED AMY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE NAMING LIST IF REQUESTED BY THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER GEISENFRIED... 25 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS... TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 55 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS... CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 2
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 6 PM HPT MARCH 6, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED CURRENT SYSTEM INTENSITY. SYSTEM PREVIOUSLY OVER GEISENFRIED HAS NOW EMERGED INTO WATER AND STRENGTHENED. IT IS STILL NOT FULLY WARM-CORE... BUT HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CALLED A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE BAZALONIAN GOVERNMENT HAS NAMED THIS STORM SYSTEM "PETROS". CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. PETROS IS EXPECTED TO START TO TURN TO THE WEST WHILE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 26 KM/H... THIS STORM WILL START TO SPEED UP TO NEAR 70 KM/H IN FORWARD SPEED... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY SOON BE NEEDED. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THEN THREATEN BEREFORD AND FAUXHAN, BAZALONIA. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 9 HRS... OVER WATER... 35 KNOTS IN 21 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 33 HRS... ABOUT 660 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 50 KNOTS IN 45 HRS... ABOUT 1600 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 69 HRS... ABOUT 750 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 3
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION "PETROS" ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS REMAINS OVER WATER AND REMAINS AT DEPRESSION STRENGTH... SYSTEM MOVING WESTWARDS VERY SLOWLY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... OVER WATER... 30 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 4
SUBTROPICAL STORM "PETROS" ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 7, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY... STILL SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KNOTS... GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING NOR THREATENING LAND. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... 34 KNOTS... CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 20 KM FROM THE CENTRE. CENTRE OF SYSTEM IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE ABOUT 250 KM NORTHEAST OF BEREFORD. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1004 HECTOPASCALS. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NE OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 500 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 45 KNOTS FURTHER... FORECAST PEAK AT...50 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 5
SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 005... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED PROGNOSTIC REASONING COMMENTS PETROS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 15 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 25 KM SOUTHWEST 20 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1003 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY ESTIMATED TO BE AT THE STRENGTH OF A TYPICAL SUBTROPICAL STORM... 40 KNOTS 1003 HPA. B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... FULLY TROPICAL... 45 KNOTS 1000 HPA. C - PETROS WILL HAVE GAINED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE STARTED TO BECOME COLDER. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 250 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 800 KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 23 KM/H. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 20/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF MORE CONDUCIVE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AND SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TAU 72... FOLLOWING WHICH SSTS WILL START TO DROP OFF. PETROS MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL BEYOND THEN... WITH FAUXHAN SEVERELY THREATENED BY ABOUT TAU 96 AS AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE STARTS TO DRAG PETROS ALONG WITH IT. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 250 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 520 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM DELTA//
Advisory 6
TROPICAL STORM PETROS ADVISORY 006 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS FULLY TROPICAL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT... GUSTING TO 55 KT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 7 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 20 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 30 KM SOUTHWEST 25 KM NOT CURRENTLY AFFECTING OR THREATENING LAND. CURRENTLY ABOUT 520 KM NW OF BEREFORD. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1002 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1002 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 50 KNOTS 997 HPA. C - COLDEST CLOUD TOPS NEAR -73 CELSIUS. PETROS IS STRENGTHENING SLIGHTLY. POSITIONING: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 520 KM NORTHWEST OF CITY OF BEREFORD. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 2150 KM EAST OF CITY OF FAUXHAN. MOVEMENT: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST AT 23 KM/H OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 25 KM/H. C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 25/20/35/30 KM NE/NW/SE/SW... 50 KT... 05/05/10/05 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: TROPICAL STORM PETROS HAS GAINED SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STARTING TO BUILD UP... AND AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PETROS WILL BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO PETROS SPEEDING UP SOON. BY TAU 72... PETROS IS EXPECTED TO THREATEN FAUXHAN... PERHAPS AS A HURRICANE. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT THREAT IN CHACOR... THE MSHPC BRANCH IN PORT HARVEY CANNOT FLY HURRICANE HUNTERS OUT AT THIS TIME... THEREFORE... THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS CYCLONE WILL BE GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 525 KM NW OF BEREFORD... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 800 KM NNW OF BEREFORD... 45 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 2150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 1790 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 50 KNOTS IN 48 HRS... ABOUT 1295 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 55 KNOTS IN 60 HRS... ABOUT 720 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 60 KNOTS IN 72 HRS... ABOUT 145 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 65 KNOTS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Special Advisory 7
TROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT MARCH 8, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY... PETROS SEEMS TO BE SHEARED APART BY THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF IT... FOR SOME REASON... IS LOSING TROPICALITY. THE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD START TO ABSORB PETROS... DRAGGING IT TO THE WEST ALONG WITH IT... IF IT HASN'T ALREADY. PETROS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE. PETROS/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH... 90 KM/H... AND THE SYSTEM MAY SPEED UP FURTHER AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE FAR SOUTH CLOSES IN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 4 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 40 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL COULD BE MADE WITHIN TWO DAYS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE WHOLE NORTHERN COAST OF VICTORLAND. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1005 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// TROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 40 KT 1005 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 40 KNOTS 1007 HPA. C - CLOUD TOPS WARMING. PETROS BEING SUCKED INTO LARGER FRONT... BUT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED SEPERATE SYSTEM. D - RMKS: RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. POSITIONING: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 3500 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 1220 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 90 - 95 KM/H. C - STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE STARTING TO BUILD UP. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO STORM'S MOVEMENT. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 10/15/15/20 KM NE/NW/SE/SW. COMMENTS: TROPICAL STORM PETROS SEEMS TO BE RAPIDLY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. REASON IS UNCLEAR... ALTHOUGH IT SEEMS THAT THE EXTRA- TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF PETROS HAS PARTIALLY ABSORBED THE TROPICAL STORM... ALTHOUGH PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED TO BE CONSIDERED A SEPERATE CYCLONE. AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS ALL AGREE THAT PETROS WILL START TO MOVE EVEN FASTER... WHILE THE ATLANTIAN OCEANIA WEATHER PICTURE DOES NOT PROVIDE GOOD REASONING. AS SUCH... GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED TRACK HAS PETROS MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 36 TO TAU 48. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 3500 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 2420 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... ABOUT 1220 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 40 KNOTS IN 36 HRS... ABOUT 150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS... LANDFALL MADE IN 48 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Special Advisory 8
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... SPECIAL ADVISORY... ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED FOR SUBTROPICAL MENTION IN PROG-REASON. PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... STATUS CHANGED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST ARE BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATING C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -40 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 2250 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND NEAR FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 24... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 105 - 110 KM/H. C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 2250 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... ABOUT 1200 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 24 HRS... INLAND 100 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING IN 36 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 9
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT MARCH 9, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS CONTINUES TO LOSE TROPICALITY... MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 3 METRES. 34-KNOT WIND RADIUS NORTHEAST 10 KM NORTHWEST 15 KM SOUTHEAST 15 KM SOUTHWEST 15 KM CURRENT INTENSITY... 35 KNOTS. CURRENTLY ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF FAUXHAN... ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WILL BE MADE WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST. FROM DVORAK TECHNIQUE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED AT 1007 HECTOPASCALS. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS INTENSITY: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT INTENSITY 35 KT 1007 HPA B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... DISSIPATED C - CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED TO AS WARM AS -35 DEG C. EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TAKING A TOLL ON PETROS. POSITIONING: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 1150 KM EAST OF THE CITY OF FAUXHAN. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... INLAND WEST OF FAUXHAN. C - LANDFALL FORECAST... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED BY TAU 12... IF NOT EARLIER. D - WARNINGS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE NORTHERN VICTORLAND COAST... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. MOVEMENT: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS MOVING WEST VERY QUICKLY OVER LAST TWELVE HOURS. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 100 KM/H. C - PETROS ALMOST EATEN UP BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM... BUT A SMALL TROPICAL PORTION OF PETROS IS STILL SUFFICIENTLY DETACHED. WIND RADII: A - SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KNOTS. COMMENTS: SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS IS VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... WITHIN 12 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. THIS IS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISORY AS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA. WITH THE CURRENT AIRSPACE LOCKDOWN IN CHACOR... NO HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHTS CAN BE ORIGINATED... THUS INTENSITY OF SYSTEM IS GREATLY EXTRAPOLATED. NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... CURRENTLY... ABOUT 1150 KM E OF FAUXHAN... 35 KNOTS IN 12 HRS... NEAR OR OVER CITY OF FAUXHAN... 30 KNOTS...DISSIPATING IN 24 HRS... DISSIPATED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 10
AOTC LEMS HPCPH SUBTROPICAL STORM PETROS... FINAL ADVISORY 010 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT MARCH 10, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. PETROS MAKES LANDFALL. CURRENTLY CENTRED OVER FUAXHAN. SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 65 KM/H. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR ENTIRE VICTORLAND COAST DISCONTINUED. REMARKS: SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEROGOLOGICAL SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OFFICE IN PORT HARVEY, CHACOR. CONTINUED GUSTS OF UP TO 90 KM/H WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT SIX HOURS. LISTEN FOR INFORMATION FROM LOCAL AUTHORITIES ON WHEN IT IS SAFE TO COME OUT TO INSPECT DAMAGE. REMAIN IN SHELTER. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Tropical Storm Allani (Casari)-Dagon (Starblaydia)
Advisory 1
AOTC LEMS HPCPH TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 10 PM HPT JUNE 10, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CASARAN AUTHORITIES ALONG WITH STARBLAYDI AUTHORITIES HAVE REQUESTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HPC TO WARN ON TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF QUTAR... 800 KM EAST OF CARLTON, CASARI, WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS AND POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN. CHACORAN GOVERNMENT WILL FLY OUT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT LATER TODAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 2 METRES. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO INTENSITY: A - TD-AO2 CURRENT INTENSITY +25 KT 30 MPH 50 KM/H+ 1007 HPA MBAR B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +35 KT 40 MPH 65 KM/H+ 1004 HPA MBAR C - REMARKS... THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF HURRICANE HUNTER RECON AIRCRAFT DETERMINES CENTRE AND DIFFERENT WIND SPEEDS THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED. POSITIONING: A - TD-AO2 CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 800 KM 500 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 630 KM 395 MI EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. C - REMARKS... THE POSITION FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF HURRICANE HUNTER RECON AIRCRAFT DETERMINES A DIFFERENT STORM CENTRE THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED. MOVEMENT: A - TD-AO2 MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS ALMOST STATIONARY B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 8 KM/H 5 MPH. WIND RADII: A - TD-AO2 CURRENTLY HAS NO WINDS ABOVE 34 KT. B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 10/5/10/10 KM IN NE/NW/SE/SW QUADRANTS C - REMARKS... WIND RADII FORECAST WILL BE SUBJECT TO MAJOR ERRORS IF HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DETERMINES DIFFERENT STORM CENTRE AND WINDSPEED THAN CURRENTLY REPORTED. COMMENTS: AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST LANDFALL IN THE LONG-TERM ON BOTH ISLANDS OF CASARI AS A HURRICANE. THE HURRICANE HUNTER RECON FLIGHT WILL DETERMINE A LOT ABOUT THIS STORM. FOR NOW... THE FORECAST PROVIDED BELOW IS SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS IF THE AIRCRAFT REPORTS NEW INFORMATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT LONG-RANGE FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF UP TO 320 KM IN TRACK AND 35 KT IN INTENSITY. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A WARNING/FORECAST. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED KT/MPH/KM/H CURRENTLY... 800 KM 500 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 25/30/50 IN 12 HRS... 705 KM 440 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 30/35/55 IN 24 HRS... 630 KM 395 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 35/40/65 IN 36 HRS... 550 KM 345 MI NE ELKARA CAS... 40/45/75 IN 48 HRS... 405 KM 255 MI ENE ELKARA CAS... 45/50/85 IN 60 HRS... 260 KM 165 MI ENE ELKARA CAS... 55/65/100 IN 72 HRS... 120 KM 75 MI ENE ELKARA CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1 IN 96 HRS... 100 KM 60 MI EAST SWORDIA CAS... 60/70/110 INLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 2
AOTC LEMS HPCPH TROPICAL STORM ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 11, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. RECON FLIGHT FINDS 50-KT WINDS CENTRED 600 KM EAST OF CARLTON, CASARI... TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-TWO UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. NAMED ALLANI BY CASARI... AND DAGON BY STARBLAYDIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES NOW IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 HOURS... AND A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 6 METRES. WIND RADII... 34-KT 60 KM NE QUADRANT 75 KM NW QUADRANT 50 KM SE QUADRANT 55 KM SW QUADRANT PROGNOSTIC REASONING// TROPICAL STORM ALLANI-DAGON INTENSITY: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +50 KT 60 MPH 95 KM/H+ 990 HPA MBAR B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +85 KT 100 MPH 155 KM/H+ 979 HPA MBAR C - REMARKS... LOW SHEAR... WELL ORGANISED SYSTEM... HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. POSITIONING: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 600 KM 375 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 25 KM 15 MI EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI BY TAU 36. D - WARNINGS: TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI. HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI. MOVEMENT: A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 20 KM/H 13 MPH. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH. WIND RADII: A - TROPICAL STORM ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT WIND RADII: SEE ABOVE B - WIND RADII FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 34 KT... 100/120/80/85 KM NE/NW/SE/SW 50 KT... 55/75/60/60 KM NE/NW/SE/SW 64 KT... 25/40/15/20 KM NE/NW/SE/SW COMMENTS: RECON AIRCRAFT FINDS STRONG SYSTEM WELL WEST OF LAST REPORTED CENTRE... UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR STARBLAYDIA IS RETREATING WESTWARD... AND THERE ARE NO FACTORS WHICH SUGGEST INHIBITING RAPID DEEPENING... EXCEPT LAND MASS. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A WARNING/FORECAST. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED KT/MPH/KM/H CURRENTLY... 600 KM 375 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 50/60/95 IN 12 HRS... 315 KM 195 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 70/80/130 CAT 1 IN 24 HRS... 25 KM 15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2 IN 36 HRS... 150 KM 95 MI WEST DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1 IN 48 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1 IN 60 HRS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2 IN 72 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95 IN 96 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 3
AOTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 11, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ALLANI/DAGON UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF BIG ISLAND OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 14 METRES. WIND RADII... 34-KT 160 KM NE QUADRANT 175 KM NW QUADRANT 150 KM SE QUADRANT 155 KM SW QUADRANT 50-KT 105 KM NE QUADRANT 120 KM NW QUADRANT 90 KM SE QUADRANT 90 KM SW QUADRANT 64-KT 60 KM NE QUADRANT 70 KM NW QUADRANT 45 KM SE QUADRANT 40 KM SW QUADRANT PROGNOSTIC REASONING// HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON INTENSITY: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +70 KT 80 MPH 130 KM/H+ 979 HPA MBAR B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +65 KT 75 MPH 120 KM/H+ 986 HPA MBAR POSITIONING: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 315 KM 195 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 150 KM 95 MI WEST OF DALKAR CASARI. C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI WITHIN 24 HOURS. D - WARNINGS: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA. MOVEMENT: A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH. COMMENTS: BASED ON SATELLITE APPEARANCE... ALLANI-DAGON IS NOW A HURRICANE AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CARLTON CASARI WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVESTOCK, LIVES AND LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD HAVE COMPLETED OR BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A WARNING/FORECAST. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED KT/MPH/KM/H CURRENTLY... 315 KM 195 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 70/80/130 CAT 1 IN 12 HRS... 25 KM 15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2 IN 24 HRS... 150 KM 95 MI WEST DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1 IN 36 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1 IN 48 HRS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2 IN 60 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95 IN 84 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 4
AOTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 12, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ALLANI/DAGON UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS... HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF BIG ISLAND OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT 26 METRES. WIND RADII... 34-KT 160 KM NE QUADRANT 175 KM NW QUADRANT 150 KM SE QUADRANT 155 KM SW QUADRANT 50-KT 105 KM NE QUADRANT 120 KM NW QUADRANT 90 KM SE QUADRANT 90 KM SW QUADRANT 64-KT 60 KM NE QUADRANT 70 KM NW QUADRANT 45 KM SE QUADRANT 40 KM SW QUADRANT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCED IN CARLTON, CASARI. PROGNOSTIC REASONING// HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON INTENSITY: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +85 KT 100 MPH 155 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +80 KT 95 MPH 150 KM/H+ 976 HPA MBAR POSITIONING: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED ABOUT 25 KM 15 MILES EAST OF CARLTON CASARI. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI. C - LANDFALL FORECAST: LANDFALL ON CARLTON CASARI WITHIN NEXT HOUR. D - WARNINGS: HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR COAST OF CASARI FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA. MOVEMENT: A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH. COMMENTS: ALLANI-DAGON ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIVES AND LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND DOES NOT HAVE OFFICIAL WARNING JURISDICTION IN ATLANTIAN OCEANIA... SO THIS ADVISORY IS WHOLLY UNOFFICIAL AND PROVIDED ONLY AS A WARNING/FORECAST. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED KT/MPH/KM/H CURRENTLY... 25 KM 15 MI EAST CARLTON CAS... 85/100/155 CAT 2 IN 12 HRS... 150 KM 95 MI WEST DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1 IN 24 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1 IN 36 HRS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2 IN 48 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95 IN 72 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 5
AOTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ALLANI/DAGON MAKES LANDFALL ON SMALL ISLAND OF CASARI... STILL A POTENT CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF THE SMALL ISLAND. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT ON THE MAIN ISLAND FROM ASTRA NORTHWARD TO KELSIA. WIND RADII... NO READINGS AVAILABLE. HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON INTENSITY: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENT INTENSITY +65 KT 75 MPH 120 KM/H+ 986 HPA MBAR B - INTENSITY FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... +90 KT 105 MPH 165 KM/H+ 972 HPA MBAR POSITIONING: A - ALLANI-DAGON CURRENTLY CENTRED INLAND WEST OF DALKAR, CASARI. B - POSITION FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST OF ADDISON CASARI. D - WARNINGS: SEE ABOVE. MOVEMENT: A - ALLANI-DAGON MOVEMENT OVER LAST 12 HOURS WEST AT NEAR 24 KM/H 15 MPH. B - FORECAST MOVEMENT OVER NEXT TWELVE HOURS... WEST AT 24 KM/H 15 MPH. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. FORECAST... KM/MILES/DIR. FROM CLOSEST CITY... WINDSPEED KT/MPH/KM/H CURRENTLY... 150 KM 95 MI WEST DALKAR CAS... 65/75/120 CAT 1 IN 12 HRS... 480 KM 300 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 80/95/150 CAT 1 IN 24 HRS... 55 KM 35 MI EAST ADDISON CAS... 90/105/165 CAT 2 IN 36 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR INSLOW CAS... 50/60/95 IN 60 HRS... INLAND VERY NEAR WILLINGBY CAS... 35/40/60 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Advisory 10
AOTC LEMS HPCPH TROPICAL STORM ALLANI-DAGON ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 13, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED HEADER TO READ TROPICAL STORM NOT HURRICANE ALLANI-DAGON HAS LOST MUCH CONVECTION OVER CASARI... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 45 KT... 50 MPH... BUT THESE WINDS ARE DETACHED FROM THE CENTRE. IT IS LIKELY THAT ALLANI-DAGON HAS UNDERGONE SOME UNEXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. FURTHER WINDS SUSTAINED TO UP TO 55 KT ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COMING DAYS OVER MAINLAND CASARI AND STARBLAYDIA... WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 80 KT IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM CHARLIE//
Tropical Storm Charles (Chacor)-Lydia (Bedistan)
Advisory 1
LCLW CHCM AOTC TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE WEATHER ADVISORY NR 001...CORRECTED CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 12, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED TO ADD NEXT ISSUANCE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR THE CHACOR COAST IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION... TAGGED AO-THREE... CURRENTLY POSES A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTH- WESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR... AS WELL AS THE FORMER DEMILITARISED ZONE/ DJACOR-RYSONIA. AS OF 9 AM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE WAS LOCATED FAR EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 11 KM/H... 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA/MBAR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 80 MM... THREE INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 100 MM... FIVE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR... AND WILL LIKELY STOP IMPACTING THE COUNTRY WITHIN 48 HOURS. AS WATERS ARE WARM... STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE FOR THE ENTIRE CHACOR COAST. FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT JUNE 12 POSITION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CHACOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 6 KT. RESIDENTS OF PEDRIANA... MAINLAND BEDISTAN... AS WELL AS OFFSHORE SARZONIA SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER FORECAST INFORMATION UNTIL THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM CHACOR AS THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WILL START TO ISSUE FORECASTS THEN. THE NEXT FULL LOCAL WARNING ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE FROM THE CHACOR WEATHER AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL WARNING AT 3 PM HPT. ISSUED BY FORECASTER INDILBA
Advisory 1A
LCLW CHCM AOTC TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 001A... INTERMEDIATE BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. INTERMEDIATE BULLETIN A BOUT OF SUDDEN RAPID STRENGTHENING MEANS TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO3 IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM. TROPICAL STORM CHARLES POSES A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR... INCLUDING THE FORMER DMZ/DJACOR-RYSONIA. AT 3 PM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED FAR EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 KM/H... 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA/MBAR. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 80 MM... THREE INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 100 MM... FIVE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. TROPICAL DEPRESSION AO-THREE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR... AND WILL LIKELY STOP IMPACTING THE COUNTRY WITHIN 60 HOURS. AS WATERS ARE WARM... STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY, CHACOR HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHACOR SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF CHACOR NORTH OF PORT HARVEY. FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT JUNE 12 POSITION... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES/LYDIA JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CHACOR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 KT. RESIDENTS OF PEDRIANA... MAINLAND BEDISTAN... AS WELL AS OFFSHORE SARZONIA SHOULD CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR FURTHER FORECAST INFORMATION UNTIL THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM CHACOR AS THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE WILL START TO ISSUE FORECASTS THEN. THE NEXT FULL LOCAL WARNING ON TROPICAL STORM CHARLES FROM THE CHACOR WEATHER AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME... FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE LOCAL WARNING AT 3 AM HPT. ISSUED BY FORECASTER INDILBA
Advisory 2
LCLW CHCM AOTC TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 002 BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 12, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED FOR CHACOR NORTH OF PORT HARVEY... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF CHACOR SOUTH OF PORT HARVEY REMAIN IN EFFECT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT. HIGH SURF WARNING IN EFFECT. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES IN EFFECT. LOCAL INLAND STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CHARLES CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT TO CHACOR. LOCAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS OF CHACOR... INCLUDING THE FORMER DMZ/DJACOR-RYSONIA. AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 12... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED FAR EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA... VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CHACOR. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA/MBAR. FURTHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 50 MM... TWO INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR... WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 80 MM... THREE INCHES. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. CHARLES IS STARTING TO MOVE AWAY FROM CHACOR. FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. HIGH WINDS ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST PEDRIANA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF ÚSTIN. AT THIS POINT IN TIME... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PEDRIANA AND BEDISTAN. NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 3 AM. ISSUED BY FORECASTER JOYCE
Advisory 2A
LCLW CHCM AOTC TROPICAL STORM CHARLES WEATHER ADVISORY NR 002A... INTERMEDIATE BEDISTANI/PEDRIAN DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM LYDIA CHACOR MET SERVICE IN CO-ORDINATION WITH THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 AM HPT JUNE 13, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS FOR CHACOR DISCONTINUED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... HIGH SURF WARNING... AND FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT. ALL INLAND STORM WARNINGS FOR CHACOR DISCONTINUED. AT 3 AM HPT JUNE 13... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES (LYDIA) WAS LOCATED ABOUT 800 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA/MBAR. ALTHOUGH CHARLES IS NO LONGER A DIRECT THREAT TO CHACOR... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN PEDRIANA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF ÚSTIN. PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF PEDRIANA AND BEDISTAN. AS TROPICAL STORM CHARLES IS NO LONGER A DIRECT THREAT TO CHACOR... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WEATHER ADVISORY RELEASED BY THE CHACOR WEATHER AND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OFFICE IN PORT HARVEY WILL ISSUE THE NEXT TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT... UNLESS CHARLES POSES A NEW THREAT TO CHACOR. ISSUED BY FORECASTER JOYCE
Advisory 3
CHTC LEMS HPCPH TROPICAL STORM CHARLES-LYDIA ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 13, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF PEDRIANA... FROM THE LOWLAND BORDER SOUTHWARD TO DRESFORD, BEDISTAN. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... HIGH SURF WARNING... HIGH WIND WARNING... AND FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE HIGH WINDS FROM THIS SYSTEM. AT 9 AM HPT JUNE 13... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES-LYDIA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 650 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ÚSTIN, PEDRIANA. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 27 KM/H... 19 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 85 KM/H... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA/MBAR. ALTHOUGH CHARLES IS NO LONGER A DIRECT THREAT TO CHACOR... FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWEST. FOR THE CRYSTILAKERE CHANNEL... SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT. A HIGH WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN PEDRIANA... INCLUDING THE CITY OF ÚSTIN. PEDRIANA, MAINLAND BEDISTAN AND THE OFF-SHORE ISLANDS OF SARZONIA SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR DAYS. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT... AND THE WATCHES FOR THE SARZONIAN ISLANDS MAY SOON BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF PEDRIANA AND BEDISTAN. WIND RADII... 34 KT - 180 160 105 90 50 KT - 40 35 0 0 FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION... INITIAL... 50 KT... 650 KM ENE ÚSTIN ADVISORY 4... 55 KT... 380 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 5... 65 KT... 115 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 6... 30 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND ADVISORY 4 DUE AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
Advisory 4
CHTC LEMS HPCPH TROPICAL STORM CHARLES-LYDIA ADVISORY 004 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 PM HPT JUNE 13, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. AT ADVISORY 4... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT ADVISORY 4... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWLAND CLANS/PEDRIANA BORDER... SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BEDISTAN... HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. AT ADVISORY 4... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THE PEDRIANA/BEDISTAN BORDER SOUTHWARD TO DRESFORD HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... HIGH SURF WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE FLASH-FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHACOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 9 PM HPT JUNE 13... TROPICAL STORM CHARLES-LYDIA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 KM NORTHEAST OF DRESFORD, BEDISTAN. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 23 KM/H... 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 100 KM/H... 65 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 HPA/MBAR. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT... ALL PRECAUTIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION... IF NOT COMPLETE. WIND RADII... 34 KT - 180 160 105 90 50 KT - 40 35 0 0 FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION... INITIAL... 55 KT... 400 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 5... 65 KT... 130 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 6... 35 KT... INLAND NEAR DRESFORD ADVISORY 5 DUE AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM DELTA//
Special Advisory 4A
CHTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA SPECIAL ADVISORY 004A...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 5 AM HPT JUNE 14, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. CORRECTED TIME TO TS FORCE WINDS IN DRESFORD AT 5 AM HPT... THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PEDRIANA COAST FROM THE LOWLAND BORDER IN THE NORTH TO THE BEDISTANI BORDER IN THE SOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE PEDRIANA/BEDISTAN BORDER SOUTHWARD TO DRESFORD. AT 5 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN FRESHLY ISSUED FOR THE BEDISTANI COAST FROM DRESFORD SOUTH TO EAGLE'S REST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... HIGH SURF WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM-FORCE CONDITIONS... OR WILL BE SOON. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS IN EFFECT... AS WELL AS TO UPGRADE CHARLES-LYDIA TO A HURRICANE... BASED ON SHIP REPORTS... AS WELL AS REPORTS FROM SATELLITE. AT 5 AM HPT JUNE 14... HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 215 KM... 135 MILES NORTHEAST OF DRESFORD, BEDISTAN. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 23 KM/H... 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... MAKING CHARLES-LYDIA A HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA/MBAR. BASED ON THIS FORECAST TRACK DRESFORD SHOULD START TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS BY ADVISORY 5. WIND RADII... IN KM... NE/NW/SE/SW 34 KT - 200 140 95 90 50 KT - 70 45 0 0 64 KT - 25 25 0 0 WIND RADII... IN MILES... NE/NW/SE/SW 34 KT - 125 90 60 55 50 KT - 45 30 0 0 64 KT - 15 15 0 0 FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION... INITIAL... 65 KT... 215 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 5... 65 KT... 130 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 6... 35 KT... INLAND NEAR DRESFORD ADVISORY 5 DUE AT 9 AM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Advisory 5
CHTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA ADVISORY 5 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 9 AM HPT JUNE 14, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. AT 9 AM HPT... THE FOLLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PEDRIANA COAST FROM THE LOWLAND BORDER IN THE NORTH TO THE BEDISTANI BORDER IN THE SOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE PEDRIANA/BEDISTAN BORDER SOUTHWARD TO DRESFORD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEDISTANI COAST FROM DRESFORD SOUTH TO EAGLE'S REST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY... HIGH SURF WARNING AND HIGH WIND WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. AT 9 AM HPT JUNE 14... HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 130 KM... 80 MILES NORTHEAST OF DRESFORD, BEDISTAN. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 21 KM/H... 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... MAKING CHARLES-LYDIA A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA/MBAR. DRESFORD, ÚSTIN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN LOWLAND CLANS NOW REPORTING SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. WIND RADII... IN KM... NE/NW/SE/SW 34 KT - 210 160 135 110 50 KT - 80 65 25 15 64 KT - 25 25 0 0 WIND RADII... IN MILES... NE/NW/SE/SW 34 KT - 130 100 85 70 50 KT - 50 40 15 10 64 KT - 15 15 0 0 FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION... INITIAL... 65 KT... 130 KM NE DRESFORD ADVISORY 6... 30 KT... INLAND NEAR NORTHWIND/LINCOLNSHIRE/PEDRIANA BORDER ADVISORY 6 DUE AT 9 PM HPT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE/PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM BRAVO//
Special Advisory 5A
CHTC LEMS HPCPH HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA SPECIAL ADVISORY 5A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC BRANCH... PORT HARVEY, CHACOR TIME IN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FOR ADVISORY... 3 PM HPT JUNE 14, 2145 LOCAL TIME MAY DIFFER. HURRICANE LYDIA (CHARLES) MAKES LANDFALL NEAR DRESFORD... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING, HURRICANE WATCH AND HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE SARZONIAN ISLANDS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE PEDRIANA COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 3 PM HPT... THE HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THE PEDRIANA/BEDISTAN BORDER SOUTHWARD TO DRESFORD HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT ADVISORY 6. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM DRESFORD SOUTH TO EAGLE'S REST HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO ONLY A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED AT ADVISORY 6. SMALL CRAFT AND HIGH SURF WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR PEDRIANA DISCONTINUED. AT 3 PM HPT JUNE 14... HURRICANE CHARLES-LYDIA WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR DRESFORD, BEDISTAN. IT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH- SOUTHWEST AT 19 KM/H... 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... AND CHARLES-LYDIA MADE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER LAND. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 HPA/MBAR. FORECAST WINDS AND POSITION... INITIAL... 65 KT... INLAND NEAR DRESFORD ADVISORY 6... 30 KT... NORTHWIND/LINCOLNSHIRE/PEDRIANA BORDER THE FINAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM LIVERPOOL ENGLAND TIME. LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE PORT HARVEY, CHACOR //FORECAST TEAM ALPHA//
