Liverpool England MSHPC Tropical Weather Updates
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Tropical Weather Updates are 12-hourly outlook bulletins issued during cyclone season by the Liverpool England Meteorological Service Hurricane Prediction Centre that summarises tropical weather activity in The Heartland, and gives a short-term forecast of possible development of tropical cyclones. They are sometimes issued outside-of-season, at a rate of one every 24 hours, when there is (rare) tropical activity.
TWUTH HPCOR 040300 CCA TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT BULLETIN MAY 4 2146 A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1005 HPA LOCATED IN THE GREAT METS SEA 04N 26W MOVING NNE SLOWLY. 9 PM RECON FLIGHT FOUND 30-KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS. 2 AM RECON FLIGHT SUGGESTS THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. WILL BE CONSERVATIVE AND WAIT FOR SOME LIGHT TO CONFIRM... OR THE NEXT RECON FLIGHT. THUS THE EARLIEST POSSIBLE TIME FOR AN ADVISORY WOULD BE AROUND 8 AM HPT. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION HAS NOW WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 KT. DVORAK DATA-T'S ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5. POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. HEARTLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WARNING FROM 3 PM HPT MAY 3... FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE GENERAL AREA OF 4 DEG N LATITUDE 26 DEG W LONGITUDE. SSTS ARE NEAR 29 DEG C. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE... IN THE REGION OF 10-15 KT. WEAK CONVECTION AROUND -50C STARTING TO BUILD ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO WEST OF CONVECTION. POTENTIAL OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. THIS FORMATION ALERT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING... RENEWED... OR CANCELLED BY 1500 HPT MAY 4. A RECON FLIGHT IS DUE INTO THE SYSTEM AT 7 AM HPT. IF IT FINDS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED UNDER HEADER TCAD2 HPCOR. REFER TO LOCAL WEATHER WARNING OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. A SPECIAL ISSUANCE OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT MAY 4. THE NEXT REGULAR TWU ISSUANCE IS AT 3 PM HPT MAY 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION (1): CORRECTED WORD LINE 28 'PLANE' TO 'SYSTEM'. FORECASTER CALTS
