Pacitalian general election, October 2006

112th federal general election

Country	Pacitalia
Type	Federal election
Incumbent party	Federation of Progressive Democrats
Winner	Pacitalian Social Coalition
Prime minister-elect	Fernando Chiovitti
Balloting date	16th October, 2006
Latest poll	PSC 35.5, FPD 35.1, ABM/Capax (13-Oct-2006)

The 112th federal general election occurred in the Democratic Capitalist Republic of Pacitalia on 16th October, 2006. The incumbent (governing) party, the Federation of Progressive Democrats, sought re-election to government with Albinanda Serodini leading their campaign. Their main opponent in the vote was the Pacitalian Social Coalition, a social-liberal party under Fernando Chiovitti that served as the official opposition in Pacitalia prior to the vote. The PSC unseated the Federation for the first time in 18 years and formed their first government since 1981, albeit a grand coalition with that very same FPD. The incumbent, right-of-centre FPD managed to win the popular vote, but lost by just one seat when all results were released.

The election followed one of the shortest prime ministerial terms in Pacitalian history. Constantino Sorantanali led the Federation to a majority government in the election on 25th January, 2006, but resigned less than six months later on charges of corruption, his mishandling of Pacitalian diplomacy, and his admission to ordering the assassination of a perceived political opponent. The vote marked the first time since 1937 that a federal election was held twice in one calendar year.

At dissolution, the FPD held 351 of 647 seats in the Constazione Ampoliticato Federali, Pacitalia's lower parliamentary body. The PSC, as the opposition, held 163 seats. The Greens had the third-largest number of sitting representatives at 70, followed by the Non-Partisan Association with 41. Meanwhile, in the Senatoro Federali, Pacitalia's upper house, the FPD held 150 of the 293 seats there. The PSC had again the second-largest number of seats at 74, followed by the Greens with 34 and the NPA with 26.

Opinion polls during the campaign made it apparent that the opposition PSC was headed for its first government since Athena Papistikas led the country between 1977 and 1985. As the campaign reached its final stretches, analysts strongly asserted that the new government would be a coalition of the PSC and one other ideologically similar party, meaning that it will most likely be the Greens, and if necessary, also the NPA. They were correct in their assertions, as the FPD and PSC were forced to team up in a grand coalition to run the country.

Campaign

Campaigning for this election was extremely light compared to past campaigns, based on the consensus that Pacitalia's political system, widely perceived as aged, out-of-touch, insufficiently democratic, and a catalyst for economic and electoral disparity, needs reform. All the major parties have said they are committed to participating in the reform framework, which will use principles of electoral process and government structure that were proposed by former prime minister Timothy Ell in 2001 but never implemented. Should the new framework be successful, it appears highly likely another federal election, under the new system, will take place sometime early in 2007.

In fact, the leadup to the vote was focused more prominently on the race for the leadership of the governing Federation of Progressive Democrats, who were under the wisdom of Serodini, the interim leader. Archetenia Nera, Andreos Samothrakidis and Ramón Ambardoza launched their leadership attempts during the election campaign, which seemed to distract voters away from the widespread distaste with the FPD and soften the blow on election night for the party. In fact, the apparent return of stability and guidance to the FPD through the nature of democratic process seemed to woo voters back that were intrigued by three strong candidates that were each potential leaders in their own right. The ten-point polls lead enjoyed by Chiovitti and the PSC dropped to a measly 0.4 percent on the last poll held three days before the election.

Results

Among major parties

As expected, the FPD was dealt a slice of humble pie on election night, losing not only their majorities in the lower and upper houses but their grasp on power. Small consolations were present in the fact that the FPD won the popular vote by nearly 20 million ballots and retained control of the senate, albeit in coalition with the Greens. A bigger consolation might be the fact that the FPD can still effectively moderate PSC domestic and foreign policy, directly through its position as grand coalition partner and indirectly through, as mentioned, holding control of the senate. Serodini appeared to be more surprised by the close result than anyone else in her party, as she was the only major figure in the party campaigning to rebuild the party rather than win the election. She told supporters in her concession speech that "the odds were simply not in our favour because we still have some rebuilding to do within the party. It's no surprise to me, and it should not be to you. We are still going to be an effective opposition to this government and we will take an active role in the reconstitution of our political and electoral system. The Federation is committed to moving this country forward no matter who is in charge" (1).

The Pacitalian Social Coalition expected a relatively solid margin of victory and were equally surprised, and rather, disappointed, at the result. However, Chiovitti saw it as the return of social democracy to the "front row of Pacitalian politics" and roused supporters on election night in his victory speech simply by proclaiming that they had "[done] it" (2). The major reason for PSC discontent with the result was that the final tallies in the two houses created a severe disadvantage for the party even though it had emerged victorious, limiting its coalition options because of ideological differences, previous statements by the centrist Non-Partisan Association about joining in coalition governments, and, ultimately and most importantly, the mathematics of the seats themselves. With just one more seat than the defeated FPD, neither of the two parties could enter a coalition with just one other party as it did not add up to a majority of seats. Similarly, both parties were firm in saying they would block the other's attempts at forming three-party coalitions. And, when, NPA leader Aria Speranza reaffirmed her party's policies on coalitions by saying they would have none of it, that left the PSC and FPD without a major coalition partner. Interestingly, an all-left coalition of the Communists, Anarchists, Workers' Cooperative Alliance, Greens and PSC added up to just five seats deficient of a majority in the lower house. With the surprising deadlock in the Constazione, only one option was left for the PSC: grand coalition with the FPD.

The Non-Partisan Association improved its January tallies, earning a large share of the popular vote and placing third in the seat counts in both houses. Leader Aria Speranza, like her PSC counterpart, justified the final results as acceptance and identification among the Pacitalian populace, but instead of with social liberalism, with her party's particular ideological brand of nonpartisan centrism. Nonetheless, the NPA did very well, earning its place as a major group of thought and, increasingly, a magnet of support in the Pacitalian polity, putting the party in position to become a coalition partner if required. However, the party's nonpartisan politics dictated it not join coalitions, and, as mentioned, Speranza reaffirmed this position on election night, after all the results were tallied and it became apparent who had placed where.

The Greens fell from third to fourth on election night after trailing the NPA in most of the polls during the campaign. The Greens earned 19 million more votes over their January 2006 tally but lost 26 seats, ending up with 44. However, Constantakis' ability to keep the Greens a political force in Pacitalia despite a declining interest in environmentalism (and its relationship with Pacitalian capitalism) was hailed by the party's echelon and, thus, it is assumed, despite the Greens' fall from opposition to fourth-party over the course of two elections, and with the Greens' entry into coalition in the senate with the FPD, that Constantakis' job is not in doubt.

Among minor parties

The next biggest surprise of the evening was perhaps the excellent showing of the separatist Margherian Freedom and Solidarity. After forming shortly before the January vote as a peaceful method of advocating the independence of the province of Margheria, leader Ovito Alcázar led the MFS to the top of opinion polls drawn specifically for that province, reaching as high as 26 percent support in the province as the campaign reached its final stages. That high level of support earned the party fourteen seats out of Margheria's 26, and put separatism back on the map in Pacitalia. They followed that up with a single seat in the Senatoro.

The Partia di Traditionale did not fill any of its self-imposed "survival criteria" on election night. The party told reporters a week before the election that if it did not win eight seats in the CAF, or two seats in the Senatoro, or at least five percent of the popular vote, that it would disband as of New Year's Day, 2007. Its results were dismal and grim at their best - five seats in the CAF, a shutout in the Senatoro and less than two percent of the vote share. Marco Quirinamo, the party's leader, responded by saying the PdT members elected to the house (including Quirinamo himself) will either sit as independents for the remainder of the government's lifespan or join other parties once the clock ticks over into 2007 (3).

The three minor parties of the left performed rather well thanks to the resurgence of the PSC, as they enjoyed a bit of a secondary wave in support leading into the vote. The Communists doubled their CAF seats after winning only one in January, while the Anarchists held their single seat in the lower house (leader Vera Campagnolo's). The two parties' results paled in comparison, however, to the outstanding performance of the Workers' Cooperative Alliance, which finished a solid sixth of nine parties and earned a WCA-record seven seats under Jávier Grandinetti's leadership. The party even managed to pick up two seats in a traditional FPD stronghold, Antigonia.

Trivia

• Had the PSC's ten-point lead held on election night, that would have meant a swing of just over 20 percent from the FPD to the victorious social-liberals.
• Once again, all nine party leaders were re-elected.
• FPD leadership candidates Archetenia Nera and Ramón Ambardoza were elected in their respective constituencies, but fellow candidate Andreos Samothrakidis was unsuccessful in his seat bid. Coincidentally, had Samothrakidis won his seat, the FPD would have won the election by one seat instead of losing it by one.
• The FPD won the popular vote and half the provinces in the country but still lost the election (by a single seat).
• Voter turnout was its highest since 1996, with 79.7 percent of Pacitalia's 3.832 billion eligible voters casting a ballot.
• Two parties crested one billion votes each in this election, the first time any party has won at least that many in a federal election.
• International public opinion on the election showed wide support for the PSC, and governments and leading political figures in other countries were noticeably less willing to back the FPD so openly in this election.

Opinion polls

Full election results

By seats

By votes

	Pacitalian federal elections
	111th (2006) | 112th (2006) | Future: 113th