TD03 (2146)/Past
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
Contents
Advisory 1
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 052145 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME RECON AIRCRAFT INTO HYBRID LOW EAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FOUND A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS UNDERGOING TROPICAL TRANSITION. CONVECTIVE BURSTS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTRE OF THIS DISTURBANCE... LEADING TO SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5/25KTS TO ST3.0. THE MAXIMUM WINDS FOUND BY RECONNAISSANCE WAS 51 KTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... TRANSLATING TO 40 KTS AT THE SURFACE... SO THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE TRACK FORECAST IS COMPLICATED... SUCH THAT WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE FORECAST POINTS EVERY SIX HOURS... RATHER THAN THE USUAL 12-24-36-48-72-96. INITIAL SIX HOUR MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 045/17. AT 9 PM HPT... THE LOX LAND ISLAND REGIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL... AND THE TOWNS OF NORTHERN ROCK... CORNER BASE... AND TYSON. AS OF 9 PM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 24-36 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A LAND GALE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. THE GALES IN THIS AREA ARE NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH EHECATL... AND RATHER ARE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IS NOW WEAKENING... AND THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS WARNING IS FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM VICTORY UNION NORTHWARD TO LOYALTY BAY... EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH THE LOYALTY AND VICTORY MOUNTAINS. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.1 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES EAST OF SCHIMPOL... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. A LARGER AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA DUE TO VARIOUS FACTORS. UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT 18-24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO 190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RATHER COMPLICATED. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHICH IS CAUSING THE SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT AND HIGH WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION. THIS HIGH WILL FORCE EHECATL AWAY TO THE LEFT OR WEST OF THIS HIGH AND TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND... RATHER THAN OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND. INITIALLY EHECATL SHOULD TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER STEERING CURRENTS BROUGHT ON BY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE HIGH IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THE NORTHWESTERLY TURN BEFORE TAKING A MORE NORTHWARDS TRACK. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS FORECAST... MORDREL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST AT AROUND 32 KM/H... 20 MPH. INTENSITY-WISE... THE FORECAST DOES NOT EXPECT ANY STRENGTHENING. AS EHECATL UNDERGOES SOME TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ITS PRESSURE WILL DROP... BUT IT IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES TO COAST. IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY AS OPPOSED TO THE USUAL 12-24-36-48- 72 AND 96 HOUR FORECAST POINTS. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 05/2100H INITIAL... 44.7 N 26.1 E... 40 KT 06/0300H... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT 06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT 06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT 06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT 07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND 07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... 44.7 NORTH 26.1 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 17 KT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK EAST AND SOUTHWARDS TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO DESINCO. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0345 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER CALTS
TCTW03 FOLN 052145 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 2145 HPT MAY 5 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100 21460505 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 44.7N 26.1E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 17KT CENT PRES: 1002HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 45.8N 26.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0300 21460506=
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 052200 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 1 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED AT 10:30 PM LST MAY 5 2145 ADVISORY NR 1 SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LLIWO'S JURISDICTION... 320 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 05/2130 LOX STANDARD TIME OR 9 PM HPT... POSITION WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +44.7 LON +26.0. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE ARE 40 KT AND CURRENT MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST NEAR 30 KM/H. WIND RADII ARE RATHER LARGE AND ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING BOUNDED BY A LINE DRAWN BETWEEN NORTHERN ROCK AND CORNER BASE... AND THE COAST. FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON... AT 06/0330H 45.3 NORTH 26.6 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 1001 HPA. AT 06/0930H 45.7 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 1000 HPA. REPEAT REMARKS... SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON FORMS WITHIN LOX LAND WATERS. THIS IS THE FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY WINDS OF UP TO 75 KM/H ARE POSSIBLE. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 AM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. ISSUED BY GORDON
Advisory 2
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 060345 CCA SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 AM PAX TIME... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY TO INLUDE INTERMEDIATE WARNING... EHECATL IS MOVING AS EXPECTED ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS NOW ENCOUNTERING THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTH OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS DUE TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM AGAIN IN TWO HOURS' TIME. FOR NOW... EHECATL IS HELD AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM AS CONVECTIVE PULSES NEAR THE CENTRE REMAIN INTERMITTENT... AND THERE ARE NO PERSISTENT AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE APPARENT LLCC. 0245 HPT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM T1.5... TO ST3.0. SINCE THERE HAS BEEN NO APPARENT CHANGE IN STRUCTURE OF THE STORM... THERE IS NO CHANGE MADE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY... WHICH IS HELD AT 40 KNOTS. INITIAL SIX HOUR MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 345/16. AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... THIS WARNING COULD BE CANCELLED BY TODAY AFTERNOON. AT 3 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. THE LAND GALE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WINDS FROM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS NOW BEEN CANCELLED. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.6 EAST... ABOUT 1000 KM OR 625 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS POPULARFREEDOM... OR ABOUT 675 KM OR 425 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LOYALTY BAY POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. THE RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST MOTION OF SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS DESCRIBED BELOW. UP TO 135 MM... 5.3 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER LOX LAND ISLAND IN THE NEXT 18 HOURS WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 155 MM... 6.1 INCHES. A FURTHER 130 TO 190 MM... 5.1 TO 7.5 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. NO CHANGE MADE TO WIND RADII FOR NOW... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 420 KM... 260 MILES... FROM STORM CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE HIGH SOUTH OF THE GULPS. WHAT THIS DOES TO THE FORECAST TRACK IS UNCERTAIN. WHETHER THE HIGH WILL NOW WEAKEN FURTHER AND RETREAT... AND IF IT DOES WILL EHECATL FOLLOW THE HIGH OUT. FOR THE PAST SIX HOURS EHECATL HAS TRACKED ALONG STEERING CURRENTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NOW THAT BOTH THE GRADIENT AND HIGH HAVE WEAKENED... THE FORECAST IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AND IN LOW CONFIDENCE. BASED ON CONTINUITY... AM FOLLOWING PREVIOUS FORECAST AS IS. AS DESCRIBED ABOVE... THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO HUGE ERRORS... DEPENDING ON THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OF THE GULPS. BASED ON THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLIGHTLY EAST OF WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE WESTERLY TURN BEFORE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT BUILDS IN AND FORCES EHECATL NORTHWARDS AND INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. FOR THE FIRST SIX HOURS OF THIS VERY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST... EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 30 KM/H... 18 MPH. HOWEVER... IF THE FIRST SCENARIO VERIFIES... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST IS LOW CONFIDENCE... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR. BASED ON PREVIOUS FORECAST... NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED SAVE FOR SLIGHT FALLS IN PRESSURE AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... BEFORE WEAKENING CLOSE TO THE COAST. IF IT FOLLOWS THE HIGH OUT... THIS WILL BE WELL OFF AND IT WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER SOME FAVOURABLE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS IN THE NOLAN SOUND... BEFORE RAPID WEAKENING AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. FOR WHAT IT IS WORTH... THE MODELS ARE RIGHT DOWN THE MIDDLE ON THIS ONE. UHWF INITIALISES THE WEAKENING HIGH MOVING OUT AND EHECATL MOVING OUT WITH IT... AND MAKES IT A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. HDCW MEANWHILE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT RSC/HPC FORECAST... MOVING WNW-WARDS BACK TOWARDS MAINLAND LIVERPOOL ENGLAND. DUE TO THE CURRENT SITUATION... NEITHER SCENARIO CAN BE RULED OUT RIGHT NOW. IN THE BELOW FORECAST... ALL POINTS ARE SIX-HOURLY... AND ARE EXTREMELY LOW-CONFIDENCE. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/0300H INITIAL... 45.3 N 26.6 E... 40 KT 06/0900H... 45.8 N 26.2 E... 40 KT 06/1500H... 46.4 N 25.7 E... 40 KT 06/2100H... 46.9 N 25.4 E... 35 KT 07/0300H... 47.6 N 25.2 E... 35 KT... NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.4 N 25.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING INLAND 07/1500H...DISSIPATED INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 45.3 NORTH 26.6 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0700 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER JARVIS/HUNTER
TCTW03 FOLN 060345 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0345 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0300 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 45.3N 26.6E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: WNW 16KT CENT PRES: 1000HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR: 46.4N 25.7E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NXT WRN: 0900 21460506=
Intermediate advisory 2
TCIA3 HPCOR 050650 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 6 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 4 AM PAX TIME... 6:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL NOW FULLY TROPICAL... STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY... AT 6 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND FROM NORTHERN ROCK SOUTH TO CORNER BASE... INCLUDING SCHIMPOL AND TYSON. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EASTWARDS TO THE TOWN OF DESINCO. AS OF 6 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM... FROM THE COAST NEAR 45N 29E TO PEARSON CLIFFS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM... AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY... SUGGEST THAT EHECATL IS NOW FULLY TROPICAL. BASED ON A RECENT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIX FROM AROUND 0551 HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... HAVING MOVED ALMOST DUE NORTH IN THE LAST THREE HOURS. THIS COULD BE A RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING HIGH... BUT WILL NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE NEXT ADVISORY TO SEE IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES. AT 6 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.5 EAST... ABOUT 485 KM... 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE... SHORTLY BEFORE 0605 HPT... WERE 43 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS THE CURRENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH. THE DROPSONDE READING OBSERVED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 995 HPA. THE MOVEMENT OF EHECATL IS ERRATIC... AND AT BEST OBSERVED TO BE GENERALLY NORTH TO NORTH- NORTHWESTWARDS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM... 280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. REPEATING THE 6 AM HPT POSITION... 45.5 NORTH 26.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 85 KM/H. MOVEMENT... ERRATIC. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 HPA. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER JARVIS
Tropical Cyclone Update
0815 HPT
TCUP3 HPCOR 050815 CCA TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 8:15 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 6:15 AM PAX TIME... 8:45 AM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... ...CORRECTED TO INCLUDE FURTHER WATCHES... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH AT 8 AM HPT. THE TRACK OF EHECATL HAS WOBBLED TO THE EAST... POSSIBLY IN RESPONSE TO THE WEAKENING HIGH. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH RIDGE OVER THE GREAT FOLENISAN DESERT IS FURTHER INFLUENCING SUCH STEERING CURRENTS. IF THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT THREE TO SIX HOURS... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA MAY BE DISCONTINUED. AT THIS POINT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING PEARSON CLIFFS... BUT THIS COULD BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING LATER TODAY IF NECESSARY. REPEAT... AT 8 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE WHOLE SOUTH COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... EXTENDING EASTWARDS TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULPS... FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE STORM HAS STRENGTHENED SINCE THE LAST FULL ADVISORY... AND PERHAPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE LAST INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. IF NECESSARY... ANOTHER TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... OR A SPECIAL ADVISORY... WILL BE ISSUED BEFORE THE NEXT SCHEDULED FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM... WHICH WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER JARVIS/CALTS
0840 HPT
TCUP3 HPCOR 050840 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 8:40 AM HPT MAY 5 2146... 6:40 AM PAX TIME... 9:10 AM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM EHECATL HAS REPORTED A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION OF A 993 HPA MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION... AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM... EHECATL IS BEING UPGRADED TO A 50-KNOT... 95 KM/H... 60 MPH SEVERE TROPICAL STORM. THE NEXT SCHEDULED FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 0945 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER JARVIS
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 060400 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 2 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SUBTROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 04:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145 ADVISORY NR 2 SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0330 LST OR 3 AM HPT... POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.3 LON +26.6. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE REMAIN 75 KM/H OR 40 KNOTS AND CURRENT ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC... REFER TO RSC/HPC DISCUSSION TCAD3 HPCOR FOR MORE INFORMATION. WIND RADII ARE UNCHANGED SO DESPITE EPSILON MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE STILL ADVISED TO AVOID HIGH GROUND AND THE SEA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG SQUALLY GUSTS CAN REACH 110 KM/H AT HIGH GROUND. TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AS FOLLOWS... COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM NORTHERN ROCK (+45.1/+24.5) EAST AND SOUTH TO CORNER BASE (+44.2/+24.9) INCLUDING SCHIMPOL. INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING CANCELLED. FORECAST FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON... EXTREMELY LOW CONFIDENCE AND SUBJECT TO HUGE ERROR... AT 06/0930H 45.8 NORTH 26.2 EAST WITHIN 45 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA. AT 06/1530H 46.3 NORTH 25.8 EAST WITHIN 70 NM. 40 KT 997 HPA. REPEAT REMARKS... SUBTROPICAL STORM EPSILON HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT GUSTS OF UP TO 110 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGH GROUND AND AT SEA. RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA AND HIGH GROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
Advisory 3
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 060940 CCA SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 AM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL NOW A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM... HAS DEVIATED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK... THE WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE AREA NOW MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND HAS LEFT A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING CURRENTS TO THE EAST OF EHECATL. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER FROM THE MAINLAND... EHECATL SEEMS TO BE RESPONDING WITH A SHIFT EAST. THE OLD FORECAST TRACK IS NOW CONSIDERED OUTDATED AND UNLIKELY. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE STORM. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM AFLE AND HDCW AS WELL AS A DROPSONDE OBSERVATION FROM AROUND 0830 HPT WHICH SUGGESTED A 993 HPA PRESSURE WITH 47 KT WINDS. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF STRONGER FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SINCE THEN... ABOUT 58-62 KT... HAVE SET INITIAL INTENSITY A BIT HIGHER THAN SATELLITE ESTIMATES. INITIAL MOTION IS BEST ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 025/19. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST RIVER EAST TO MOUNTAIN BAY. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY HAS ALSO INFORMED THE MSHPC THAT AT 9 AM HPT... ALL WARNINGS FOR LOX LAND ISLAND AND ITS WATERS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EASTWARD TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. AT 9 AM HPT... THE TERRITORIAL GOVERNMENT OF GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DECLARED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA... NORTHWARD TO THE STATE BORDER WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM INCLUDING THE CITY OF PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY ON THIS FORECAST TRACK. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICES FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.7 EAST... ABOUT 385 KM OR 240 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. THE EXTRAPOLATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 990 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ALL MODELS ARE DISREGARDED AS THEY STILL SHOW THE STORM MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST. FORECAST REASONING... EHECATL IS MOVING INTO THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE NOW-DISSIPATING HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING OUT INTO THE NOLAN SOUND... AS WELL AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH. NO SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH EHECATL'S WIND GUSTS COULD REACH WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/0900H INITIAL... 45.8 N 26.7 E... 50 KT 06/2100H... 46.7 N 27.4 E... 45 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 07/0900H... 48.0 N 28.5 E... 25 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 07/2100H...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... 45.8 NORTH 26.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1300 HPT MAY 6. THE LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE IS ISSUING PUBLIC BULLETINS AND FORECASTS UNDER HEADER TCLX1 LLWO. FORECASTER HUNTER/RINDLI
TCTW03 FOLN 060945 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 0945 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 0900 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 45.8N 26.7E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: ENE 19KT CENT PRES: 990HPA MAX WIND: 50KT MAX GUST: 60KT FCST 12HR: 46.7N 27.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 45KT G55KT NXT WRN: 1500 21460506=
Intermediate advisory 3A
TCIA3 HPCOR 061225 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 3A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10 AM PAX TIME... 12:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...EHECATL STILL ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL NEAR/OVER BORLEAI DEFENCE POST... AT 12 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR NORTHWEST POPULARFREEDOM IS BEING DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER CONSIDERED LIKELY FOR THE AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM MOUNTAIN BAY EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BORLEAI POST... AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS CONCURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... FROM THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE SOUTH TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. IN THIS CASE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENTLY OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE. IN THIS CASE... A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN 12 TO 24 HOURS... OR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITHIN 24 HOURS. AT 12 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.9 EAST... ABOUT 320 KM OR 200 MILES SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... POSSIBLY TO HURRICANE FORCE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE GULP MOUNTAINS. EHECATL REMAINS ON A GENERALLY NORTHEAST-BY-NORTH TRACK NEAR 35 KM/H OR 22 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... EHECATL WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR OR OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WITHIN 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECENTLY RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. AN AFLE/AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA... 29.24 INCHES OF MERCURY... 74.26 CM HG. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO ONE INCH HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE LAST THREE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 8 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... OR AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... 46.1 NORTH 26.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST- BY-NORTH AT 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER TIMMS/JARVIS
Tropical Cyclone Update
1235 HPT
TCUP3 HPCOR 061235 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12:35 PM HPT MAY 5 2146... 10:35 AM PAX TIME... 1:05 PM LOCAL TIME AS OF 12:30 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF DESINCO TO MOUNTAIN BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FURTHER NORTH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST TO THE STATE LINE WITH THE NORTHEAST REGION. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. FORECASTER JARVIS
1405 HPT
TCUP3 HPCOR 061405 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 2 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 12 PM PAX TIME... 2:30 PM LOCAL TIME TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... AN AVALANCHE HAS BEEN REPORTED IN THE GULP MOUNTAINS RELATED TO ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FROM PRECIPITATION FROM EHECATL. REFER TO GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA SERVICE WEATHER CENTRE FOR LATEST INFORMATION. AS OF 2 PM HPT... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHEAST REGION STATE LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. FORECASTER JARVIS
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 061000 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 3 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED AT 10:30 AM LST MAY 6 2145 ADVISORY NR 3 TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND. INITIAL ANALYSIS OF THE SYSTEM AS OF 06/0930 LST OR 9 AM HPT... POSITION ACCURATE TO 25 NAUTICAL MILES AT LAT +45.8 LON +26.7. MAX WINDS NEAR CENTRE NEAR 95 KM/H OR 50 KNOTS AND CURRENT ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. MOVEMENT FORECAST IS GENERALLY EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... AROUND 35 KM/H. EPSILON IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST FROM THE LLIWO. ALL LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES ARE NOW CANCELLED. FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM EPSILON... AT 06/1530H 46.7 NORTH 27.4 EAST WITHIN 40 NM. 45 KT 992 HPA. AT 06/2130H INLAND GULP MTN PN/OUTSIDE WARNING AREA. REPEAT REMARKS... TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT PUBLIC BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED AT 4:30 PM LST. THE MSHPC IS ISSUING ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. FORECASTER NOBLE
Advisory 4
MSHPC
TCAD3 HPCOR 061540 CCA SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 3 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...CORRECTED INITIAL 24 HOUR MOTION VECTOR TO 19 KT FROM 35 KT... ...SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL REMAINS ON COURSE FOR LANDFALL SOON... THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT LEFT THE STORM ABOUT TWO HOURS AGO... WITH ANOTHER FLIGHT DUE IN IN ABOUT AN HOUR. THE HIGHEST WINDSPEEDS FOUND DURING THAT FLIGHT WERE UP TO 65 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL... WHILE A MANUAL DROPSONDE READING RECORDED 49 KT WINDS AT AROUND 1245 HPT WHEN THE PLANE WAS ABOUT TO LEAVE THE STORM. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OR MICROWAVE IMAGERY SINCE ... AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES SHOW CLEAR 50-KNOT WIND VECTORS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS RETAINED AT 50 KT. INITIAL 24-HOUR MOTION NOW APPEARS TO BE NORTHEASTWARDS... SO 045/19. SHORT-TERM MOVEMENT COULD BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OR EAST. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THIS STRETCH OF COAST. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN PENINSULA COAST FROM MOUNTAIN VALLEY EAST SOUTHWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.2 EAST... ABOUT 225 KM OR 140 MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 95 KM/H... 60 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS... POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 185 KM/H... 115 MPH. GENERAL 24-HOUR TRENDS SUGGEST EHECATL IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 35 KM/H... 22 MPH. ALONG THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 9 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 390 KM... 245 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM... MOSTLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF CENTRE. IN EACH QUADRANT... WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY. AT AROUND 1140 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 68 KM/H... 42 MPH... AND A GUST TO 105 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 45 MM FELL IN THE LAST SIX HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 180 MM... 7 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE WAS CONFIRMED TO HAVE OCCURRED AROUND 1348 LOCAL TIME... 1318 HPT... EARLIER TODAY. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME... 06/1500H INITIAL... 46.4 N 27.2 E... 50 KT 07/0300H... 47.5 N 27.7 E... 30 KT...INLAND 07/1500H... 48.6 N 29.4 E... 30 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 08/0300H...EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... 46.4 NORTH 27.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HPA... SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 6. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1900 HPT MAY 6. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW03 FOLN 061545 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING ISSUED 1545 HPT MAY 6 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500 21460506 TROP CYC CENTRE: FOLENISA/OREAN TROP CYC: EHECATL WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 46.4N 27.2E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: NE 19KT CENT PRES: 990HPA MAX WIND: 50KT MAX GUST: 60KT FCST 12HR: 47.5N 27.7E...INLAND FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT GUSTS VARIABLE NXT WRN: 2100 21460506=
Intermediate advisory 4A
TCIA3 WHCO 061835 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 6 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME... 6:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM FINDS WEAKER STORM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. AT 6 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA COAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE FOR POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 27.4 EAST... ABOUT 130 KM OR 80 MILES SOUTH OF BORLEAI POINT WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE NEAR 85 KM/H... 50 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULP MOUNTAINS. EHECATL IS CURRENTLY MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST... WITH AN EAST-NORTHEAST MOTION EXPECTED IN AROUND 6 TO 12 HOURS. ON THIS CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT... LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 6 HOURS... OR AS SOON AS BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. AT AROUND 1805 HPT... AN ANEMOMETER ALONG THE COAST AT BORLEAI POINT WEST RECORDED A ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND SPEED OF 79 KM/H... 49 MPH... AND A GUST TO 109 KM/H... 68 MPH. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 HPA. BETWEEN 150 AND 250 MM... 6 AND 10 INCHES... OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... THIS MIGHT FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW OR ICE. ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 400 MM... 16 INCHES... IS POSSIBLE. BORLEAI DEFENCE POST RAINFALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT UP TO 75 MM HAS FALLEN IN THE LAST NINE HOURS... A 24-HOUR AVERAGE OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 INCHES. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES... AND AVALANCHES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ONE MINOR AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED IN THE GULPS EARLIER TODAY... TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM. REPEAT 6 PM HPT POSITION... 46.6 N 27.4 E... MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE STORM IS 992 HPA... AND EHECATL IS MOVING GENERALLY NORTHEAST. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... LANDFALL WITHIN SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 9:40 PM HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE... UNDER HEADER TCUP3 WHCO... WILL BE ISSUED UPON LANDFALL. FORECASTER HUNTER
Tropical Cyclone Update
2105 HPT
TCUP3 WHCO 062105 TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 9 PM HPT MAY 6 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME ...TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MAKES LANDFALL EAST OF BORLEAI POINT WEST... REPORTS FROM THE GROUND AT THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL STORM EHECATL MADE LANDFALL ABOUT 10 TO 15 MINUTES AGO NEAR BORLEAI POINT WEST... AS A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM. AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ESTIMATED TO BE INLAND OVER THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST NEAR 46.9 N 27.6 E. THIS POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM FORECAST STORM MOVEMENT AND GROUND REPORTS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. THERE IS ALSO A HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TONIGHT... OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY OVER LAND AS IT STARTS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY BEING PREPARED WITH THE LATEST INFORMATION... AND WILL BE AVAILABLE BY 10 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
0045 HPT
TCUP3 WHCO 070045 CCA TROPICAL STORM EHECATL (4603) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC HEADQUARTERS 12:45 AM HPT MAY 7 2146... 1:15 AM LOCAL TIME ...CORRECTED TO REMOVE EXTRANEOUS LINE IN HEADER... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL REMAINING COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT AS OF 12:45 AM HPT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TERRITORY. FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WARNINGS AND WATCHES... REFER TO INFORMATION FROM YOUR LOCAL SERVICE WEATHER OFFICE. AT 12 MIDNIGHT HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 47.2 N 27.8 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED RAPIDLY TO 35 KT ...NEAR 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH. EHECATL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER INTO A DEPRESSION AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER THIS MORNING. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 HPA. FORECASTER HUNTER
LLIWO
TCLX1 LLWO 061300 LOX LAND ISLAND TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC BULLETIN NR 4 FOR SYSTEM 4603 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY SCHIMPOL ISSUED AT 1:30 PM LST MAY 6 2145 ADVISORY NR 4 THIS ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM ADVISORY. THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM EPSILON/EHECATL NO LONGER POSES ANY THREAT TO THE ISLAND OR ITS TERRITORIAL WATERS. IT IS SET TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA WITHIN 12 HOURS. THERE ARE NO ACTIVE LOX LAND ISLAND WATCHES OR WARNINGS. REPEAT REMARKS... TROPICAL STORM EPSILON EXITING FORECAST WARNING AREA... LANDFALL ON GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS FINAL ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE 4:30 PM PUBLIC BULLETIN. THIS IS THE FINAL LLIWO PUBLIC BULLETIN ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO MSHPC ADVISORY-DISCUSSIONS ON THIS SYSTEM UNDER HEADER TCAD3 HPCOR. FORECASTER NOBLE
Gulp Mountain Peninsula SWC
1420 HPT
WXTC01 KBDP 061420 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING BULLETIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...SUPERSEDES AVALANCHE WATCH FLASH FLOOD WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE...UPDATE SLEET WARNING BULLETIN NUMBER ONE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL ISSUED BY LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 2:50 PM LOCAL TIME... 1420 HPT MAY 6 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UPDATE... THIS BULLETIN SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT. A SLEET WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EASTERN GULPS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL GULP MOUNTAINS. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED AROUND 1355 LOCAL TIME... AND CONFIRMED BY MET SERVICE PERSONNEL... NEAR THE MIDDLE GULP RANGE. NO CONFIRMED DEATHS OR INJURIES... WITH LIGHT DAMAGE TO SMALL SUMMER HOUSES... MOSTLY CONFINED TO ROOFS AND CHIMNEYS. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY SUPERSEDES THE AVALANCHE WATCH UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY INDICATES THAT AN AVALANCHE HAS OCCURRED... AND FURTHER AVALANCHES MAY OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW SHORT... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE STATE LINE EASTWARDS TO VALLEY EAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. A SLEET WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. PREVIOUS WARNINGS... EXCEPT FOR THE AVALANCHE WATCH... AND COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH... REMAIN IN EFFECT... PREVIOUS BULLETIN... THE PASSAGE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM EHECATL ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULPS. AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS WILL FALL AS SNOW... AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AS RAIN OR SLEET. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM DESINCO EAST TO BORLEAI POINT EAST... A COASTAL HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA. A COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM VALLEY EAST EASTWARDS TO BORLEAI POINT EAST. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE EASTERN GULP MOUNTAINS. WINDS... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS... WILL CONSISTENTLY GUST TO WELL ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH... AT TIMES REACHING UP TO 180 KM/H. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS... SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 95 KM/H IS POSSIBLE. THE STORM HAS A LARGE WIND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... AND IS ALREADY AFFECTING PARTS OF THE PENINSULA. THIS WARNING IS EFFECTIVE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS... BELOW 400 M... ACROSS THE PENINSULA. UP TO 255 MM... TEN INCHES... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... ARE EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE. THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL STORM CAN CARRY DEADLY DEBRIS. IF IN AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR AN AVALANCHE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY SO A NEW AVALANCHE ADVISORY CAN BE ISSUED. IF IN LOW-LYING AREAS... PREPARE TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE SHOULD FLOODING BE A PROBLEM. REPEAT... TROPICAL STORM EHECATL WILL BRING SEVERE WEATHER EFFECTS TO THE PENINSULA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FOR GUSTS AS STRONG AS 100 KT AT HIGH ELEVATIONS... IS IN EFFECT. AVALANCHES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION... AND ONE HAS BEEN CONFIRMED. IF YOU SEE OR HEAR ONE... REPORT IT IMMEDIATELY. LOW-LYING AREAS MAY BE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS THE STORM PASSES THROUGH AND BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 PM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. SWC MTN
1850 HPT
WXTC01 KBDP 061850 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER TWO BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL CC MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 7:20 PM LOCAL TIME... 1850 HPT MAY 6 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... FLASH FLOOD WARNING... AND SLEET WARNING ALL EXTENDED TO 7:30 AM LOCAL TIME TOMORROW... AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1:30 PM TOMORROW... THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM BORLEAI POINT EAST NORTH TO VALLEY EAST HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EHECATL TO WELL ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. UP TO 255 MM... OF PRECIPITATION... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER TODAY... WITH NO CASUALTIES AND LIGHT DAMAGE... BUT FURTHER AVALANCHES COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. TROPICAL STORM EHECATL IS ABOUT THREE HOURS AWAY FROM LANDFALL OVER THE BDP. BASE TC ALERT IS RED. EHECATL HAS WEAKENED... BUT STILL PACKS QUITE THE PUNCH... WITH WIND GUSTS TO UP TO 200 KM/H POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AN AVALANCHE OCCURRED EARLIER... WITH NO DEATHS OR INJURIES... AND MINOR DAMAGE... IN THE MIDDLE GULPS WELL NORTHWEST OF STORM CENTRE. THIS INDICATES THE REACH OF THIS LARGE SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH RADIUS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY. THE STORM WILL TAKE ABOUT NINE HOURS TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 1:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. SWC MTN
0040 HPT
WXTC01 KBDP 070040 TROPICAL CYCLONE LOCAL BULLETIN NUMBER THREE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST WEATHER CENTRAL ISSUED BY MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA ISSUED AT 1:10 AM LOCAL TIME...0040 HPT MAY 7 2146 IN EFFECT FOR GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA CURRENT WARNINGS AND WATCHES... INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 AVALANCHE ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 FLASH FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM HPT MAY 7 SLEET WARNING UNTIL 7 AM HPT MAY 7 ...FLASH FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED... AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING... AND A SLEET WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 7 AM LATER TODAY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY... AND FLASH FLOOD WARNING... REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA UNTIL 1 PM LATER TODAY. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. GUSTS FROM TROPICAL STORM EHECATL TO ABOVE 65 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA... ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AS THE STORM WEAKENS... GUSTS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING... AT WHICH POINT THE HURRICANE WIND WARNING WILL BE DISCONTINUED AND REPLACED WITH A MORE APPROPRIATE WARNING. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT. ALMOST 100 MM OF PRECIPITAION... MOSTLY RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE BORLEAI DEFENCE POST AND AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT ALSO SOME SNOW... HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER THE PENINSULA IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. UP TO 255 MM OF PRECIPITATION... WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO DOUBLE THAT... WILL FALL IN TOTAL ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. MELTING SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS. IF IN A WARNING AREA... BE READY TO EVACUATE AT SHORT NOTICE IF NECESSARY. AN AVALANCHE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. AN AVALANCHE WAS REPORTED WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NONE SINCE. THIS ADVISORY MAY BE DOWNGRADED TO A WATCH LATER TODAY. IF WITHIN AVALANCHE ADVISORY AREA... AVOID ALL MOUNTAINS... NO MATTER HOW HIGH... AT ALL COSTS. DO NOT RISK GETTING CAUGHT IN AN AVALANCHE. A SLEET WARNING IS IN EFFECT... RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS MIXED WITH ICE FROM HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAS BEEN REPORTED. THIS WILL MAKE ROADS VERY SLIPPERY AND VISIBILITY VERY POOR. AVOID DRIVING. EHECATL MADE LANDFALL AROUND 2125 LOCAL TIME. IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE... WITH THE MSHPC CURRENTLY PREPARING A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE THAT THE STORM NOW HAS WEAKENED TO 35 KNOTS... 999 HECTOPASCALS. HIGH GUSTS... OCCASIONALLY TO OR OVER HURRICANE FORCE... ARE STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 12 HOURS. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY 7:30 AM... AND MAY BE SUPERSEDED IN THE CASE OF ANY ALTERATIONS TO WARNINGS. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN/SWC MTN
