Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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{{Fakehurricane}} | {{Fakehurricane}} | ||
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| − | TCAD1 WHCO | + | TCAD1 WHCO 192130 |
| − | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY | + | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 5 |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
| − | + | 9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 | |
| − | ...DEPRESSION | + | ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... |
| − | SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES | + | SUB TD SIX IS GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS I WRITE. SATELLITE |
| − | + | INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ST2.5/2.5 FROM AFLE...AND T2.0/2.0 FROM HDCW...MIGHT | |
| − | + | MAKE A CASE FOR FULL TROPICAL STATUS...BUT BASED ON THE APPEARANCE ON | |
| − | + | MICROWAVE IMAGERY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A BIT MORE CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN | |
| − | + | ITSELF NEAR THE CENTRE. ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KNOTS...WHILE THE | |
| − | + | INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/15. | |
| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE NEEDED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS | |
| − | + | OF WEST KOMPA RU...PARTICULARLY THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION | |
| − | + | AND ATOLLVILLE. | |
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| − | ATOLLVILLE. | + | |
INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR | INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR | ||
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INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 9 PM HPT...THE CONSOLIDATING CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX |
| − | WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE | + | WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST |
| − | ...ABOUT | + | ...ABOUT 580 KM...365 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. |
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY | ||
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TURN POSSIBLE. | TURN POSSIBLE. | ||
| − | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH... | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH |
| − | + | HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | |
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| − | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE | + | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. |
| − | + | DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE...AND WITH | |
| − | + | SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS COULD SOON REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. | |
| − | + | SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH...NOW ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | THERE | + | THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE WILL |
| − | NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND | + | TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND SOON WILL START AN |
| − | + | EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...THERE | |
| − | TO THE | + | ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT REMAINS PRUDENT |
| − | + | TO NOTE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY | |
| − | + | MEAN A WEAKER STORM WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION. | |
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME...19/ | + | INITIAL TIME...19/2100H |
| − | INITIAL... | + | INITIAL... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL <!-- 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL --> |
| − | 20/ | + | 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE --> |
| − | + | 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT --> | |
| − | + | 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL --> | |
| − | + | 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND | |
| − | 22/ | + | 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND --> |
| + | 22/2100H...DISSIPATED | ||
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 22.3 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED |
| − | WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE | + | WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING |
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. | NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. | ||
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT | ||
| − | + | 3 AM HPT. | |
FORECASTER NOLAN | FORECASTER NOLAN | ||
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| − | TCTW01 FOLN | + | TCTW01 FOLN 192130 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX | TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX | ||
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 5 |
| − | POSITION: | + | POSITION: 22.3N 41.2E |
| − | ACCURACY: | + | ACCURACY: 35NM |
MOVEMENT: N 15KT | MOVEMENT: N 15KT | ||
| − | CENT PRES: | + | CENT PRES: 1006HPA |
MAX WIND: 30KT | MAX WIND: 30KT | ||
MAX GUST: 40KT | MAX GUST: 40KT | ||
| − | FCST 12HR PSTN: | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 23.4N 41.3E |
FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL | FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL | ||
| − | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 20 2146= |
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Revision as of 09:35, 4 October 2007
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
TCAD1 WHCO 192130 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 5 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... SUB TD SIX IS GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS I WRITE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ST2.5/2.5 FROM AFLE...AND T2.0/2.0 FROM HDCW...MIGHT MAKE A CASE FOR FULL TROPICAL STATUS...BUT BASED ON THE APPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A BIT MORE CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF NEAR THE CENTRE. ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KNOTS...WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/15. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE NEEDED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU...PARTICULARLY THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION AND ATOLLVILLE. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT...THE CONSOLIDATING CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST ...ABOUT 580 KM...365 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY TURN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE...AND WITH SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS COULD SOON REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH...NOW ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND SOON WILL START AN EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT REMAINS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY MEAN A WEAKER STORM WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/2100H INITIAL... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 22/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 22.3 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN
TCTW01 FOLN 192130 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 5 POSITION: 22.3N 41.2E ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 23.4N 41.3E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 20 2146=
