Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"
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− | + | TCAD1 WHCO 200315 | |
− | TROPICAL | + | TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 6 |
− | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | + | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN |
− | + | 3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 | |
− | + | ...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF WEST KOMPA RU... | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE DESIGNATING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION | |
− | + | SIX FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE BULLETIN WAS | |
+ | WRITTEN AT 240AM...A NEW SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS COME IN THAT SHOWS CLEAR | ||
+ | 35 TO RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT WIND VECTORS. SO...SINCE IT IS A LAND THREAT... | ||
+ | TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIKLA...A NAME | ||
+ | CONTRIBUTED TO THE REGIONAL LIST BY ELDENKEI. | ||
− | + | STORM INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT NOW...010/15. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL | |
− | + | UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. THIS INCLUDES ATOLLVILLE...AS WELL AS THE COAST | |
− | + | OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. | |
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− | ... | + | AT 3 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM |
+ | WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER...ALL | ||
+ | THE WAY TO THE KOMPRARU-POPULOUS STATE LINE. | ||
− | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED | |
− | + | IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL | |
− | + | STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH | |
− | + | AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. | |
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REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | ||
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
− | AT | + | AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED |
− | + | NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...260 MILES...SOUTH | |
− | + | OF ATOLLVILLE. | |
− | + | TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A | |
− | PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. | + | STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED |
− | + | OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF | |
− | + | ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. | |
− | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER |
− | + | GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | |
+ | |||
+ | TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 KM...65 MILES FROM THE | ||
+ | CENTRE OF THE STORM. | ||
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. | ||
− | + | A SCATT PASS FROM 255 AM WAS CRUCIAL IN THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION | |
− | SOME | + | TO A TROPICAL STORM. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN |
− | + | LUNAR CITY IS CURRENTLY ON STAND BY TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN SIX HOURS. | |
+ | |||
+ | THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING | ||
+ | IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM... | ||
+ | WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG. | ||
− | THERE | + | THERE IS NO CHANGE BEING MADE...EITHER...TO THE INTENSITY. MIKLA WILL REMAIN A |
− | + | WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE AS ONE...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS | |
− | + | IT NEARS LAND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVOURABLE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE | |
− | + | ACTIVITY...MOST NOTABLY A COLD EDDY OF WATER JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND WEST | |
− | + | KOMPA RU COAST. | |
− | + | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
− | INITIAL TIME... | + | INITIAL TIME...20/0300H |
− | INITIAL... 22. | + | INITIAL... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT...TROPICAL --> |
− | + | 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE --> | |
− | + | 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT --> | |
− | + | 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND --> | |
− | + | 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND <!-- 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND --> | |
− | + | 22/1500H...DISSIPATED | |
− | 22/ | + | |
− | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 22.9 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED |
− | WINDS NEAR | + | WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST |
− | + | EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H. | |
− | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE IN LUNAR CITY WILL ISSUE AN |
− | + | INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCIA1 WHLC/...AND THE NEXT | |
+ | COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/. | ||
− | FORECASTER NOLAN | + | FORECASTER NOLAN/KRUGER |
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− | TCTW01 FOLN | + | TCTW01 FOLN 200315 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
− | ISSUED | + | ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY |
− | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ISSUED 3:15 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 |
− | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | + | ACTIVE TIME: 0300H JUNE 20 2146 |
− | TROPICAL CYCLONE: | + | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA/WHLC |
− | WARNING NR: | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE: MIKLA |
− | POSITION: 22. | + | WARNING NR: 6 |
− | ACCURACY: | + | POSITION: 22.9N 41.2E |
+ | ACCURACY: 30NM | ||
MOVEMENT: N 15KT | MOVEMENT: N 15KT | ||
CENT PRES: 1006HPA | CENT PRES: 1006HPA | ||
− | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 35KT |
− | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 45KT |
− | FCST 12HR PSTN: | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 24.0N 41.4E |
− | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT |
− | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 0900H JUNE 20 2146= |
Revision as of 04:54, 7 October 2007
TCAD1 WHCO 200315 TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 6 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF WEST KOMPA RU... ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE DESIGNATING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE BULLETIN WAS WRITTEN AT 240AM...A NEW SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS COME IN THAT SHOWS CLEAR 35 TO RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT WIND VECTORS. SO...SINCE IT IS A LAND THREAT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIKLA...A NAME CONTRIBUTED TO THE REGIONAL LIST BY ELDENKEI. STORM INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT NOW...010/15. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. THIS INCLUDES ATOLLVILLE...AS WELL AS THE COAST OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. AT 3 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER...ALL THE WAY TO THE KOMPRARU-POPULOUS STATE LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...260 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 KM...65 MILES FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. A SCATT PASS FROM 255 AM WAS CRUCIAL IN THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN LUNAR CITY IS CURRENTLY ON STAND BY TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN SIX HOURS. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM... WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG. THERE IS NO CHANGE BEING MADE...EITHER...TO THE INTENSITY. MIKLA WILL REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE AS ONE...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT NEARS LAND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVOURABLE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...MOST NOTABLY A COLD EDDY OF WATER JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU COAST. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...20/0300H INITIAL... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 35 KT 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 22/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 22.9 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE IN LUNAR CITY WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCIA1 WHLC/...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/. FORECASTER NOLAN/KRUGER
TCTW01 FOLN 200315 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY ISSUED 3:15 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0300H JUNE 20 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA/WHLC TROPICAL CYCLONE: MIKLA WARNING NR: 6 POSITION: 22.9N 41.2E ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 24.0N 41.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0900H JUNE 20 2146=