Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
 
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----
  TCUP1 WHCO 200100
+
  TCAD1 WHCO 200315
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
+
  TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 6
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
+
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
  1 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
+
  3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 
   
 
   
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS GAINED FULLY TROPICAL STATUS AND IS NOW A
+
  ...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF WEST KOMPA RU...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS
+
EXPECTED.
+
 
   
 
   
  AT 1 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
+
  ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE DESIGNATING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
  WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION...INCLUDING ATOLLVILLE.
+
SIX FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE BULLETIN WAS
 +
WRITTEN AT 240AM...A NEW SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS COME IN THAT SHOWS CLEAR
 +
35 TO RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT WIND VECTORS. SO...SINCE IT IS A LAND THREAT...
 +
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIKLA...A NAME
 +
CONTRIBUTED TO THE REGIONAL LIST BY ELDENKEI.
 
   
 
   
  THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS FOR NOTIFICATION OF THE NEW TROPICAL STORM
+
  STORM INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT NOW...010/15.
WARNING.
+
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTER NOLAN
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL
 
+
  UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. THIS INCLUDES ATOLLVILLE...AS WELL AS THE COAST
----
+
  OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA.
TCAD1 WHCO 192130
+
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 5
+
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
+
  9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
 
   
 
   
  ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION...
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
 +
WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER...ALL
 +
THE WAY TO THE KOMPRARU-POPULOUS STATE LINE.
 
   
 
   
  SUB TD SIX IS GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS I WRITE. SATELLITE
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
  INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ST2.5/2.5 FROM AFLE...AND T2.0/2.0 FROM HDCW...MIGHT
+
  IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL
MAKE A CASE FOR FULL TROPICAL STATUS...BUT BASED ON THE APPEARANCE ON
+
  STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
  MICROWAVE IMAGERY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A BIT MORE CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN
+
  AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ITSELF NEAR THE CENTRE. ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KNOTS...WHILE THE
+
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/15.
+
+
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE NEEDED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS
+
OF WEST KOMPA RU...PARTICULARLY THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION
+
  AND ATOLLVILLE.
+
+
INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
+
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
+
 
   
 
   
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
  AT 9 PM HPT...THE CONSOLIDATING CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST
+
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...260 MILES...SOUTH
...ABOUT 580 KM...365 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.  
+
OF ATOLLVILLE.  
 
   
 
   
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
+
  TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A
  PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
+
  STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
  THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY
+
  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF
  TURN POSSIBLE.
+
  ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
  HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
  GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 +
 +
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 KM...65 MILES FROM THE
 +
CENTRE OF THE STORM.
 
   
 
   
 
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES.
 
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES.
 
   
 
   
  DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE...AND WITH
+
  A SCATT PASS FROM 255 AM WAS CRUCIAL IN THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION
  SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS COULD SOON REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS.
+
TO A TROPICAL STORM. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN
  SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH...NOW ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT.
+
LUNAR CITY IS CURRENTLY ON STAND BY TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN SIX HOURS.
 +
 +
THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
 +
  IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM...
 +
  WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG.
 
   
 
   
  THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE WILL
+
  THERE IS NO CHANGE BEING MADE...EITHER...TO THE INTENSITY. MIKLA WILL REMAIN A
TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND SOON WILL START AN
+
  WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE AS ONE...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS
  EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...THERE
+
  IT NEARS LAND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVOURABLE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE
  ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT REMAINS PRUDENT
+
  ACTIVITY...MOST NOTABLY A COLD EDDY OF WATER JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND WEST
  TO NOTE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY
+
  KOMPA RU COAST.
  MEAN A WEAKER STORM WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
  INITIAL TIME...19/2100H
+
  INITIAL TIME...20/0300H
   INITIAL... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL <!-- 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL -->
+
   INITIAL... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 35 KT...TROPICAL -->
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE -->
+
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE -->
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT -->
+
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT -->
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL -->
+
21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND  
+
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND <!-- 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND -->
22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND -->
+
  22/1500H...DISSIPATED
  22/2100H...DISSIPATED
+
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 22.3 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 22.9 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
  WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
  WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST
  NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
+
  EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE IN LUNAR CITY WILL ISSUE AN
  3 AM HPT.
+
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCIA1 WHLC/...AND THE NEXT
 +
  COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/.
 
   
 
   
  FORECASTER NOLAN
+
  FORECASTER NOLAN/KRUGER
 
----
 
----
  TCTW01 FOLN 192130
+
  TCTW01 FOLN 200315
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
  ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY
  ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 19 2146
+
ISSUED 3:15 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 20 2146
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  SUB-TD SIX
+
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA/WHLC
  WARNING NR:        5
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  MIKLA
  POSITION:          22.3N 41.2E
+
  WARNING NR:        6
  ACCURACY:          35NM
+
  POSITION:          22.9N 41.2E
 +
  ACCURACY:          30NM
 
  MOVEMENT:          N 15KT
 
  MOVEMENT:          N 15KT
 
  CENT PRES:          1006HPA
 
  CENT PRES:          1006HPA
  MAX WIND:          30KT
+
  MAX WIND:          35KT
  MAX GUST:          40KT
+
  MAX GUST:          45KT
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    23.4N 41.3E
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    24.0N 41.4E
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT...TROPICAL
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 20 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 20 2146=

Revision as of 04:54, 7 October 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCAD1 WHCO 200315
TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 6
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF WEST KOMPA RU...

ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE DESIGNATING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE BULLETIN WAS
WRITTEN AT 240AM...A NEW SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS COME IN THAT SHOWS CLEAR
35 TO RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT WIND VECTORS. SO...SINCE IT IS A LAND THREAT...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIKLA...A NAME
CONTRIBUTED TO THE REGIONAL LIST BY ELDENKEI.

STORM INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT NOW...010/15.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL
UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. THIS INCLUDES ATOLLVILLE...AS WELL AS THE COAST
OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER...ALL
THE WAY TO THE KOMPRARU-POPULOUS STATE LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...260 MILES...SOUTH
OF ATOLLVILLE. 

TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A
STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF
ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 KM...65 MILES FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES.

A SCATT PASS FROM 255 AM WAS CRUCIAL IN THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION
TO A TROPICAL STORM. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN
LUNAR CITY IS CURRENTLY ON STAND BY TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN SIX HOURS.

THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM...
WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG.

THERE IS NO CHANGE BEING MADE...EITHER...TO THE INTENSITY. MIKLA WILL REMAIN A
WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE AS ONE...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS
IT NEARS LAND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVOURABLE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY...MOST NOTABLY A COLD EDDY OF WATER JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND WEST
KOMPA RU COAST.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...20/0300H
 INITIAL... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 35 KT 
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE 
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 
21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
22/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 22.9 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST
EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE IN LUNAR CITY WILL ISSUE AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCIA1 WHLC/...AND THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/.

FORECASTER NOLAN/KRUGER

TCTW01 FOLN 200315
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY
ISSUED 3:15 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 20 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA/WHLC
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   MIKLA
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           22.9N 41.2E
ACCURACY:           30NM
MOVEMENT:           N 15KT
CENT PRES:          1006HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     24.0N 41.4E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 20 2146=