TD04/06 (2146)
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WXDD1 XHWS 180245 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 1 HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 2:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION CENTRE ON RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A HWS RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANT SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING...IF NECESSARY. RECENTLY...TENDIUM REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 28 KT...GUSTING TO 36 KT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 150 MM...6 INCHES...COULD CAUSE SUDDEN FLASH FLOODING AT LOW GROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY... THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHWARDS. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONEX /HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION/... AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEEPEN AGAIN NORTH OF ODIPOUS AND REFORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHICH WAY IT WILL GO AT THAT POINT...IS FAIRLY SPLIT. HDCW...AFLE...AND THE IN-HOUSE HWS MODEL RUNS ALL BRING IT ALONG THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA TOWARDS EASTERN PRUDENTIA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE SMALLER MODELS BRING IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KOMPA RU. THIS FORCED CONEX TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY REGENERATED CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN WEST KOMPA RU. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE... A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE. FORECASTER MICHAELS/RYAN