TD04/06 (2146)/Past
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
Contents
Advisory 1
TCAD4 WHLC 171025 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 1 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 10 AM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 8 AM PAX TIME ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FINDS A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED... RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF ODIPOUS FOUND A CLOSED CIRCULATION AND 38 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS... ABOUT 32 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 0645 PAX...0845 HPT... WERE T1.5/25 KTS FROM AFLE...AND T2.5/35 KTS FROM UHWF AND HDCW. THIS DATA WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE SHOULD SKIP TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DISTURBANCE HAS DETERIORATED SLIGHTLY SINCE THE SAT FIXES...WILL GO FOR A CONSERVATIVE 30 KTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. INITIAL MOTION...330/14. AT 10 AM HPT...8 AM PAX TIME...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE CROWN COLONY OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 10 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 43.2 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 420 KM... 260 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 26 KM/H... 16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. IN THE FORECAST...THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST MODELS THAT...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STEERING CURRENTS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THIS GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THAT TIME. AFTER THAT...MODELS START TO DIVERGE. AT BAT HERE IS TO WHAT EXTENT A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL HAVE ON THE RIDGE. ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS...AND SLOWS IT DOWN QUITE A BIT FROM ITS CURRENT SPEED. OF COURSE...THIS IS BY NO MEANS A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST. INTENSITY-WISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IF IT MOVES OVER THE CYCLONE...SOME STRENGTHENING CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS RETARDS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. BEYOND THAT... WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF TD-FOUR IS STILL A FAIRLY SMALL SYSTEM PAST THE ISLANDS...THIS COULD LEAD TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1000H INITIAL... 17.4 N 43.2 E... 30 KT 17/2100H... 18.3 N 42.5 E... 35 KT 18/0900H... 19.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 18/2100H... 20.3 N 41.2 E... 45 KT 19/0900H... 21.2 N 40.3 E... 50 KT 20/0900H... 22.0 N 39.1 E... 60 KT 21/0900H... 22.9 N 37.9 E... 65 KT REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... NEAR 17.4 NORTH 43.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 14 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 1545 HPT MAY 7. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171030 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1030 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1000H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 17.4N 43.2E ACCURACY: 40NM MOVEMENT: NW 14KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 11HR PSTN: 18.3N 42.5E FCST 11HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 17 2146=
Advisory 2
TCAD4 WHLC 171545 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR [4604] ADVISORY 2 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 3 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NOT QUITE A TROPICAL STORM YET... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ODIPOUS... BASED ON EARLIER DATA...I COULD POSSIBLY HAVE JUSTIFIED UPGRADING TD-FOUR TO A TROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES HAVE EVENED OUT AT T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE AND HDCW...AND REMAIN AT 35 KT FROM UHWF. SINCE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HASN'T BECOME ANY BETTER...AND WITH A LACK OF OTHER JUSTIFICATION FOR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...AT 30 KT. ANOTHER HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM LATER TONIGHT. INITIAL MOTION...325/13. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... INCLUDING THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. EVEN IF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FAILS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE LANDFALL...THE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE DEPRESSION CLEARS THE ISLANDS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.9 EAST...OR ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN 18 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. THE FORECAST PROGNOSTIC HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 36 OR SO HOURS IS VERY STRONG...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AS IT IS DRIVEN BY STEERING CURRENTS INFLUENCED BY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. STILL...THE MODELS START TO DIVERGE BEYOND THAT TIME. HOW MUCH A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WILL AFFECT ON THE RIDGE IS THE UNKNOWN. NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUSLY...ASSUMING THAT IT WEAKENS THE RIDGE ENOUGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS THE CYCLONE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS ...AND IS A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED THAN THE FIRST 48H. IT IS NOT A HIGH- CONFIDENCE FORECAST PAST 48 HOURS...AND THE STORM COULD BE MOVING FASTER THAN FORECAST...OR EVEN IN A DIFFERENT DIRECTION. INTENSITY-WISE...THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE SYSTEM HASN'T MOVED OVER THE CYCLONE...WHICH MIGHT GO SOME WAY TO EXPLAINING WHY THIS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED. THERE IS STILL A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES TENDIUM...BUT WE EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WILL AGAIN SLOW ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING. BEYOND THAT...WATER TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY WARM...NEAR 28 C...AND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW. IF THE CYCLONE RETAINS ITS FAIRLY SMALL SIZE PAST ODIPOUS...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF RAPID STRENGTHENING. AGAIN...FORECAST BEYOND 48 HOURS IS NOT HIGH-CONFIDENCE. A FASTER-THAN-EXPECTED FORWARD SPEED WOULD COMPLICATE THE FORECAST INTENSITY...AS WOULD A DIFFERENT TRACK. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/1500H INITIAL... 17.9 N 42.9 E... 30 KT 18/0300H... 18.8 N 42.2 E... 35 KT 18/1500H... 19.8 N 41.5 E... 35 KT 19/0300H... 20.7 N 40.8 E... 40 KT 19/1500H... 21.4 N 40.0 E... 50 KT 20/1500H... 22.4 N 38.6 E... 60 KT 21/1500H... 24.0 N 36.6 E... 70 KT REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 17.9 NORTH 42.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST 13 KT. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT MAY 7...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1830 HPT. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 171540 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 1540 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 17.9N 42.9E ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: NW 13KT CENT PRES: 1004HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 18.8N 42.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 17 2146=
Intermediate Advisory 2A
TCIA4 WHLC 171820 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 2A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY 6 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME ...DEPRESSION STILL NOT YET A TROPICAL STORM... ...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING SYSTEM... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. AT 6 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 42.6 EAST...OR ABOUT 210 KM... 130 MILES...SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM...ODIPOUS. THIS POSITION IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE FORECAST TRACK...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-TERM WOBBLE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT...AS MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRE... RAINBANDS SHOULD ALREADY BE AFFECTING SOUTHERN ODIPOUS...AND WILL REACH LAND WELL BEFORE THE CENTRE DOES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 25 KM/H... 15 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF TENDIUM ISLAND IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS ...AND BE NEAR OR OVER THE ULE MILITARY BASE IN JUST OVER 12 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DESPITE AN APPARENT LACK OF STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REMAINS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTRE OF THE CYCLONE REACHES SOUTHERN ODIPOUS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003 HPA...29.62 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...50 TO 125 MM...2 TO 5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 180 MM...7 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 10 M...3 FT ABOVE NORMAL IS POSSIBLE ALL ALONG THE COASTS OF ALL FOUR ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN COAST OF TENDIUM AND SOUTHERN COAST OF GIA ISLANDS. HIGH TIDES WILL LAST WELL AFTER THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED THROUGH. REPEATING THE LATEST...6 PM...POSITION...18.0 N 42.6 E...ABOUT 230 KM SOUTHEAST OF TENDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 HPA. MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST AT 25 KM/H. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY 2145 HPT. FORECASTER RYAN
Advisory 3
TCAD4 WHLC 172135 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ADVISORY 3 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY 9 PM HPT JUNE 17 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISSIPATING... ...ALL WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... BASED ON EARLIER DATA...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS SHORTLY A TROPICAL STORM FOR A FEW HOURS. SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY...AND THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT THAT WAS INVESTIGATING TD FOUR ABOUT AN HOUR OR SO AGO DID NOT FIND A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CENTRE. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY PASSES CONFIRM NO OBVIOUS LLC. THEREFORE...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING TERMINATED AT THIS TIME. THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE DISTURBANCE/REMNANT CONVECTION FOUND BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WERE 37 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL...ABOUT 30 KT AT SURFACE...SO I HAVE RATHER GENEROUSLY KEPT THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KNOTS. THERE IS NO LOW-LEVEL CENTRE TO TRACK...BUT MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION OF THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE AREA IS ABOUT 320/12. AT 9 PM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF HERCONIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. IT IS IMPERATIVE TO NOTE THAT THIS DOES NOT MEAN 34-KT WINDS WILL NOT SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT...THERE WAS NOT A DISCERNIBLE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. AT BEST...THE REMNANT CONVECTION WAS LOCATED OVER THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... WITH WHAT WOULD HAVE BEEN THE CENTRE NOW JUST OFFSHORE TENDIUM. GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF THE DEPRESSION ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT NEAR 22 KM/H... 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE REMNANT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAIN NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE REMNANT WAVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1009 HPA...29.80 INCHES OF MERCURY. ON THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...25 TO 100 MM...1 TO 4 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 125 MM...5 INCHES. EVERYONE IN THE OFFICE HAS BEEN CAUGHT RATHER OFF-GUARD BY THE SUDDEN DETERIORATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. IN DISCUSSIONS WITH THE HURRICANE CENTRE HEADQUARTERS IN OREAN...IT WAS AGREED THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...WOULD BE DROPPED FROM ACTIVE WARNINGS. IT APPEARS THAT THE CONTINUED RETARDATION OF ANY INTENSIFICATION...FOR WHATEVER REASON...COUPLED WITH LAND EFFECTS FROM THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...HAVE CAUSED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTRE OF THE DEPRESSION TO LOSE IT. OBVIOUSLY...THE MODELS DID NOT SEE THIS COMING. ALL THE MODELS WHICH RAN AT 18 HPT STILL HAVE THE SYSTEM MOVING WNW INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA. HOWEVER...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE ARE NOW BEING STEERED MORE EASILY BY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...THE FORECAST IS VERY VERY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN CONTINUITY...HAVE CHOSEN TO FOLLOW PREVIOUS FORECAST... ESPECIALLY IN LIEU OF MORE RECENT DATA. HOWEVER THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CONTINUITY IN THE CYCLONE...OR WHAT IS LEFT OF IT...AND ITS STRUCTURE...SO THIS IS A SHOT IN THE DARK. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IMPROVE IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS... AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE REMNANTS OF THE CYCLONE WILL REGENERATE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THE DISSIPATION OF THE ORIGINAL LOW-LEVEL CENTRE...ANY NEW CYCLONE WOULD BE GIVEN A NEW NUMBER. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...17/2100H INITIAL...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE MSHPC/HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE. ANY NEW WARNINGS ON A SYSTEM WITH A NEW CIRCULATION WOULD BE UNDER A NEW DESIGNATION. FORECASTER RYAN
TCTW04 FOLN 172130 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE FOLENISA ISSUED 2130 HPT JUNE 17 2146 BY MET SERVICE HQ ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 17 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FOUR WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: CENTRE DISSIPATED ACCURACY: NIL MOVEMENT: NIL CENT PRES: NIL MAX WIND: REMNANT 30KT MAX GUST: REMNANT 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: NIL FCST 12HR WINDS: NIL NEXT WARNING AT: NO FURTHER WARNINGS=
Remnants discussion 1
WXDD1 XHWS 180245 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 1 HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 2:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. THERE IS NO OBVIOUS CIRCULATION CENTRE ON RECENT MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER PASSES. A HWS RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL INVESTIGATE THE REMNANT SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING...IF NECESSARY. RECENTLY...TENDIUM REPORTED A PEAK WIND OF 28 KT...GUSTING TO 36 KT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS. WHILE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH ACROSS THE ISLANDS...ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 150 MM...6 INCHES...COULD CAUSE SUDDEN FLASH FLOODING AT LOW GROUND. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. OVER THE PAST FIVE HOURS SINCE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY... THE REMNANT DISTURBANCE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHWARDS. MOST MODELS...INCLUDING THE CONEX /HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION/... AGREE THAT THE REMNANTS WILL DEEPEN AGAIN NORTH OF ODIPOUS AND REFORM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHICH WAY IT WILL GO AT THAT POINT...IS FAIRLY SPLIT. HDCW...AFLE...AND THE IN-HOUSE HWS MODEL RUNS ALL BRING IT ALONG THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK...NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA TOWARDS EASTERN PRUDENTIA. HOWEVER...SOME OF THE SMALLER MODELS BRING IT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS KOMPA RU. THIS FORCED CONEX TO BE SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE OLD HURRICANE CENTRE TRACK...WHICH WOULD MEAN ANY REGENERATED CYCLONE IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN WEST KOMPA RU. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE... A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE. FORECASTER MICHAELS/RYAN
Remnants discussion 2
WXDD1 XHWS 181145 CCA REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 2...COR HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 11:45 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ...CORRECTED TIME SINCE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE ADVISORY... A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL CYCLONE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS PRESENTLY INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS REPORTED SO FAR ARE 34 KNOTS...ABOUT 29 AT THE SURFACE. NO CLOSED LOW REPORTED YET. THE DISTURBANCE IS NOT VERY WELL-ORGANISED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS...ESPECIALLY HEAVY ON THE ULE MILITARY BASE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF ODIPOUS... EXCEPT ULE ISLAND...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO ACCUMULATE...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF NECESSARY. SINCE OUR LAST DISCUSSION...THE CONVECTIVE MASS HAS BECOME MORE DISORGANISED. THE PATCHES OF CONVECTION SHOW NO SIGNS OF CONSOLIDATION AT THIS POINT...SO EVEN IF THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS A CLOSED LOW IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THE HURRICANE CENTRE WILL RESTART ADVISORIES...NOT IMMEDIATELY ANYWAY. MODELS RUN AT 06 HPT...INITIALISED THE GEOGRAPHICAL CENTRE OF THE CONVECTIVE MASS/MESS NORTH OF ODIPOUS...WHICH IS AROUND WHERE THE LAST HURRICANE CENTRE FORECAST TRACK ABOUT 14 HOURS AGO FORECAST IT TO BE. IF THIS IS RIGHT...FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WOULD SUGGEST A QUICK REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. ONLY TIME WILL TELL. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. FURTHER DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY...AT 0245...0845...1445...AND 2045 HPT DAILY. IF THERE IS NO NEW INFORMATION...A BULLETIN MAY BE SKIPPED OVER...BUT IF NEW INFORMATION IS MADE KNOWN BETWEEN A SKIPPED BULLETIN AND THE NEXT SCHEDULED ONE... A SPECIAL BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED...EITHER BY THE HWS OR THE HURRICANE CENTRE...AS APPROPRIATE. FORECASTER MICHAELS
Remnants discussion 3
WXDD1 XHWS 182045 REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION 3 HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE LUNAR CITY KOMPA RU 8:45 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 THE LATEST SATELLITE DATA RECEIVED HERE IN LUNAR CITY SUGGESTS THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR ARE CLOSE TO REGENERATING. WHILE AN EARLIER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...AROUND NOON HPT...FOUND A RATHER DISORGANISED SYSTEM...A PEAK WIND OF 29 KT WAS RECENTLY REPORTED IN A SOUTHERN BAND OF THE SYSTEM ON ULE MILITARY BASE IN ODIPOUS...WHICH COULD SUGGEST SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF WINDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO THE DISTURBANCE TO SEE IF IT CAN CLOSE OFF A CENTRE. IF IT DOES...WE EXPECT THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE TO INITIATE ADVISORIES ON SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX SOME TIME LATER TONIGHT. A REMNANT SOUTHERN BAND OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL AFFECTING NORTHERN TENDIUM ISLAND...BUT OTHERWISE ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR ODIPOUS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IF THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWEST INTO THE MAUVIDIAN SEA. AS THE DISTURBANCE IS NO LONGER FORECAST TO AFFECT LAND...THIS IS THE FINAL HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE DISTURBANCE DISCUSSION ON THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THEIR TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATES /TWUTH WHCO/. SHOULD THIS DISTURBANCE BE FORECAST TO AFFECT LAND AGAIN...WHILE NOT A SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE...DISTURBANCE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE REINITIATED. FORECASTER MICHAELS
SubTD Six Advisory 1
TCAD1 WHCO 182210 CCB SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY 1 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 8 PM PAX TIME ...CORRECTED FORECAST... ...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME... ...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REGENERATE INTO SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING LAND... AFTER CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO REINITIATE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS UNDER WHAT NAME TO DO SO... THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO DECLARE THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GIVE IT A NEW NUMBER. THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION IS BECAUSE A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND THE CENTRE TO BE NEAR 20.4N 41.3E...BUT ITS MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTRE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOVEMENT IS AROUND 360/09. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 10 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST ...ABOUT 1095 KM...683 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. AFTER WHAT TD FOUR DID...I AM RATHER HESITANT TO EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES FULLY TROPICAL STATUS. TRACK FORECAST WISE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS RATHER STEADILY...AND IS ACTUALLY RATHER CLOSE TO OUR OLD FORECAST TRACK FOR TD FOUR. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BREAKING WE EXPECTED WITH TD FOUR HAS NOT HAPPENED. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL THEREFORE TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AFTER WHICH IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. THE MODELS...WHICH WERE RATHER SPREAD OUT ON TD FOUR...APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST...SO INTERESTS IN WEST AND EAST KOMPA RU SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. LATE IN THE FORECAST...A RATHER RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/2200H INITIAL... 20.4 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 22/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 20.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
TCTW01 FOLN 182210 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 10:10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2200H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 20.4N 41.3E ACCURACY: 50NM MOVEMENT: N 17KM/H CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 25KT MAX GUST: 35KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 21.2N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 19 2146=
SubTD Six Advisory 2
TCAD1 WHCO 190340 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 2 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND... THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE TO HOLD ON TO THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION. MOST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EITHER TOO WEAK...AN ST1.5...AND THERE IS ALSO ONE TROPICAL T1.0. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION FOR NOW...355/09. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.3 EAST ...ABOUT 1015 KM...635 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THE OLD FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED. STILL...SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST IS FORECAST BASED ON AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED... ALTHOUGH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS MAY VERY EASILY NOT VERIFY. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/0300H INITIAL... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 23/0300H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 20.8 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0935 HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
TCTW01 FOLN 190340 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 3:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0300H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 20.8N 41.3E ACCURACY: 50NM MOVEMENT: N 17KM/H CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 25KT MAX GUST: 35KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 21.7N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0900H JUNE 19 2146=
SubTD Six advisory 3
TCAD1 WHCO 190940 CCA SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 3 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...CORRECTED TO ADD 'INLAND' NOTE TO FORECAST POINT... ...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANISATION OF DEPRESSION... NOT MUCH TO SAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS NO DATA TO JUSTIFY ANY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE WILL SOON BE IN TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER... 360/10. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST ...ABOUT 905 KM...565 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 19 KM/H...12 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WILL GAIN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE AND IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST MODEL SHEAR DIAGNOSTIC DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING TOO BAD...ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...SO IT IS QUITE THE QUESTION WHY THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET STRENGTHENED. SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIRE AROUND THE CENTRE OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT HELPING. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE ITS CHANCES OF BECOMING TROPICAL...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING SOME. BASED ON CONTINUITY...I AM NOT CHANGING THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REFUSE TO STRENGTHEN IT IS LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWN. AN ADDITIONAL POINT TO NOTE...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...IF THE INTENSITY FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED LATER TODAY FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/0900H INITIAL... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND 23/0900H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 21.2 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 19 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN
TCTW01 FOLN 191500 CCA TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 CORRECTED AT 3 PM HPT FOR WRN NUM AND MVMT ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 20.8N 41.2E ACCURACY: 50NM MOVEMENT: N 10KT CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 25KT MAX GUST: 35KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 22.3N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 19 2146=
SubTD Six advisory 4
TCAD1 WHCO 191530 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 4 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...REMAINS SUBTROPICAL... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO ST2.5 IN SOME CASES...WITH ONE LINGERING TROPICAL T1.5. SO...AS A COMPROMISE...WENT WITH 30 KNOTS. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE CURRENTLY IN THE SYSTEM HAS REPORTED A BORDERLINE WARM CORE...AND WITH THE CONVECTION STILL RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE...I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT SUBTROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AGAIN...360/15. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO INITIATE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO WAIT ANOTHER ADVISORY OR TWO TO JUDGE IF THE FORECAST WOULD BE HELD FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL OR IF IT WOULD BE TRENDED DOWN IN FUTURE FORECASTS...WHICH WOULD MAKE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FAIRLY USELESS. IF THE FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS LIKELY LATER TODAY FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION...AS WELL AS ATOLLVILLE. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST ...ABOUT 740 KM...465 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY TURN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...BUT MOST OF THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE FELT AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. THERE ARE ALSO HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT...AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTRE. A MODEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING THE SYSTEM...BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. SUB-TD SIX WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND IN THE MID TERM WILL START AN EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ON TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS...AND THROUGH 48 HOURS. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION WOULD MEAN A WEAKER STORM. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/1500H INITIAL... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 22/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 21.7 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN
TCTW01 FOLN 191530 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 21.7N 41.2E ACCURACY: 45NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 22.9N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 REMARKS: WARNING NR 3 PSTN ERRONEOUS=
SubTD Six advisory 5
TCAD1 WHCO 192130 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 5 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH OF DEPRESSION AS IT UNDERGOES TROPICAL TRANSITION... SUB TD SIX IS GAINING MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS I WRITE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...ST2.5/2.5 FROM AFLE...AND T2.0/2.0 FROM HDCW...MIGHT MAKE A CASE FOR FULL TROPICAL STATUS...BUT BASED ON THE APPEARANCE ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL A BIT MORE CONVECTION CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF NEAR THE CENTRE. ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE 30 KNOTS...WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 360/15. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE NEEDED EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU...PARTICULARLY THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION AND ATOLLVILLE. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT...THE CONSOLIDATING CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST ...ABOUT 580 KM...365 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY TURN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTRE IS BEGINNING TO CONSOLIDATE...AND WITH SOME PERSISTENT CONVECTION THIS COULD SOON REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS. SHEAR HAS WEAKENED AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED NORTH...NOW ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND SOON WILL START AN EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST. IT REMAINS PRUDENT TO NOTE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WILL LIKELY MEAN A WEAKER STORM WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/2100H INITIAL... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 22/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 22.3 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN
TCTW01 FOLN 192130 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 5 POSITION: 22.3N 41.2E ACCURACY: 35NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 23.4N 41.3E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 20 2146=
Tropical cyclone update
TCUP1 WHCO 200100 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 1 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAS GAINED FULLY TROPICAL STATUS AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED. AT 1 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION...INCLUDING ATOLLVILLE. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS FOR NOTIFICATION OF THE NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING. FORECASTER NOLAN
Advisory 6
TCAD1 WHCO 200315 TROPICAL STORM MIKLA ADVISORY 6 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ...FOURTH NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS SOUTH OF WEST KOMPA RU... ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE WE WOULD BE DESIGNATING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT SINCE THE TROPICAL WEATHER UPDATE BULLETIN WAS WRITTEN AT 240AM...A NEW SCATTEROMETER PASS HAS COME IN THAT SHOWS CLEAR 35 TO RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT WIND VECTORS. SO...SINCE IT IS A LAND THREAT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM MIKLA...A NAME CONTRIBUTED TO THE REGIONAL LIST BY ELDENKEI. STORM INITIAL MOTION IS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT NOW...010/15. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. THIS INCLUDES ATOLLVILLE...AS WELL AS THE COAST OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA. AT 3 AM HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF WEST KOMPA RU HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE MAINLAND COAST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER...ALL THE WAY TO THE KOMPRARU-POPULOUS STATE LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...260 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 KM...65 MILES FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1006 HPA...29.71 INCHES. A SCATT PASS FROM 255 AM WAS CRUCIAL IN THE DECISION TO UPGRADE THE DEPRESSION TO A TROPICAL STORM. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IN LUNAR CITY IS CURRENTLY ON STAND BY TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM IN SIX HOURS. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK REASONING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AS FORECAST SOME TIME AGO BY MODELS...WILL CAUSE THE STORM... WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...TO MAKE AN EASTWARD JOG. THERE IS NO CHANGE BEING MADE...EITHER...TO THE INTENSITY. MIKLA WILL REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGHOUT ITS LIFE AS ONE...AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AS IT NEARS LAND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVOURABLE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY...MOST NOTABLY A COLD EDDY OF WATER JUST SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU COAST. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...20/0300H INITIAL... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 35 KT 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 22/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION...NEAR 22.9 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING JUST EAST OF DUE NORTH AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE IN LUNAR CITY WILL ISSUE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCIA1 WHLC/...AND THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/. FORECASTER NOLAN/KRUGER
TCTW01 FOLN 200315 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED BY HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY ISSUED 3:15 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0300H JUNE 20 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA/WHLC TROPICAL CYCLONE: MIKLA WARNING NR: 6 POSITION: 22.9N 41.2E ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1006HPA MAX WIND: 35KT MAX GUST: 45KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 24.0N 41.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0900H JUNE 20 2146=
Intermediate advisory 6A
TCIA1 WHLC 200610 TROPICAL STORM MIKLA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6A HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE LUNAR CITY 6 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...INCLUDING THE EAST COAST OF THE MAIN ISLAND EAST OF NU REPUBLICA...AND ATOLLVILLE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND WEST KOMPA RU...FROM THE MOUTH OF THE CENTRE RIVER EAST TO THE KOMPRARU STATE LINE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE CURRENTLY OCCURRING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 6 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM MIKLA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST...ABOUT 325 KM...200 MILES SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. TROPICAL STORM MIKLA IS MOVING SLIGHTLY EAST OF DUE NORTH AT ABOUT 27 KM/H... 17 MPH. A FURTHER EASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE STORM WILL PASS EAST OF ATOLLVILLE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 KM...70 MILES FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 HPA...29.65 INCHES. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT /UNDER HEADER TCAD1 WHLC/. FORECASTER KRUGER
