TD05 (2146)

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCAD5 WHCO 200905
HURRICANE KANTA ADVISORY 10
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

...HURRICANE KANTA NEAR CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE FROM SCHTOOPSTADT...

FIRST VISIBLES ARE DUE OUT IN ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT RELATIVELY COLD...
-75 CELSIUS...CLOUD TOPS AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN CORE STRUCTURE AS
SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS ONE T4.5 AND ONE T5.0
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...MEAN THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE 80 KNOTS...WHICH COULD BE A BIT LOW.
THE CIVILIAN HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO FIX THE STORM AT AROUND 8:30 PAX TIME...90 MINUTES FROM
NOW. BASED ON POSITIONAL FIXES...INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 320/16.

NO LAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...REFER TO TCMW5 WHCO FOR
MARINE WARNINGS IF APPLICABLE. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN EASTERN CARITAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL
MONSTER.

AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE KANTA WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 1.9 EAST...
ABOUT 550 KM...345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLITZ INEPTIA.

HURRICANE KANTA IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TURN AND
MOVE NORTHWEST AT 31 KM/H...19 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H...95 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KANTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 KM...150 MILES...AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM...30 MILES...FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA...28.94 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY ZILCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AT
THIS TIME. MODEL RUNS ARE STILL FAIRLY SPLIT ABOUT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THIS IMPACTS THE FORECAST QUITE A BIT.

WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ADJUSTING THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOR NOW UNTIL THE
RECON PLANE CAN GET IN AND SAMPLE THE STORM SO WE KNOW WHAT THE ACTUAL STORM
INTENSITY IS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THERE ARE VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE STORM. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...AND 10 KNOTS AT MOST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY HELPFUL 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...WITH AN EDDY OF 30 TO
31 DEGREES C SST LYING AHEAD OF THE STORM SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING. 

THEREFORE...FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A MID-CATEGORY FOUR
STORM TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MODELS ALSO FAIRLY SPLIT OVER FUTURE POSITION OF A TUTT CELL RELATIVE TO
STORM CENTRE. RECENT RUNS SHOW NO CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY...SO WILL
KEEP A HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POINT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...20/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 80 KT 
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 95 KT 
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...115 KT 
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...125 KT 
22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W...105 KT 
23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 W... 85 KT 
24/0900H... 15.4 N 00.2 E... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 150 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 31 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 200910
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:10 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 20 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         10
POSITION:           6.8N 1.9E
ACCURACY:           10NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 16KT
CENT PRES:          980HPA
MAX WIND:           80KT
MAX GUST:           100KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     7.5N 0.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    95KT G115KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 20 2146=

TCMW5 WHCO 200900 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE WARNING 10 CORRECTED
HURRICANE KANTA
ISSUED BY HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MINIMUM PRESSURE 

MARINE WARNING.
INITIAL POSITION VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 20.
..24 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 21.
..48 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 22.

HURRICANE WARNING.
HURRICANE KANTA 980 HPA STORM CENTRE AT 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. POSITION ACCURATE
TO 10 NAUTICAL MILES. PRESENT MOVEMENT 320/16. WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 25
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.
HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF A LINE 12N 1W TO 6N 4E.
HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF 3W SOUTH OF 12N NORTH OF 6N.
HURRICANE WARNING VALID 24 HOURS.

24 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 8.5 NORTH 0.5 WEST. WINDS UP TO 115
KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
48 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 11.1 NORTH 1.9 WEST. WINDS UP TO
105 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN
200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

ALL MARINERS AVOID HURRICANE WARNING AREA NEXT 48 HOURS.
REQUEST FOR SHIP REPORTS EVERY SIX HOURS WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
EVERY THREE HOURS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST.

NEXT MARINE WARNING ISSUED IN 24 HOURS...OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FORECASTER HUNTER