TD07 (2145)/Past
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Listed below are all advisories released by the Liverpool England Met Service Headquarters in Folenisa. See above for more past advisories released by other agencies.
Contents
Hurricane Yuri
Advisory 14
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 014 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE //EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING// MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 10 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 7 2145 HURRICANE YURI STRENGTHENS FURTHER... NOW ON THE BRINK OF BEING A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. YURI HAS NOW TAKEN DIRECT AIM AT PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING... LANDFALL WITHIN TWELVE HOURS. ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN PEARSON CLIFFS WITHIN THREE HOURS. WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT... TREES WILL BE DOWNED... FLOODING OF UP TO 180 CM... SIX FEET... POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY WILL BE DOWN FOR WEEKS... ANY PERSON EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE SEVERLY INJURED BY FLYING DEBRIS. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO PEARSON CLIFFS. INITIAL INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 110 KNOTS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. AT 9 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.6N 28.9E... ABOUT 400 KM... 250 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 205 KM/H OR 130 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949 HPA... YURI IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 KM/H. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... YURI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT TEN HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 465 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE EAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 265 KM. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! THE MODELS HAVE ALL GOT THIS STORM HORRIBLY WRONG... YET //AGAIN//... TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 07/2100 HPT INITIAL... 45.6 N 28.9 E...110 KT 08/0300H... 45.6 N 29.6 E...125 KT...CAT 4 08/1500H... 45.1 N 31.0 E... 95 KT...INLAND 09/0300H... 43.9 N 31.7 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING 09/1500H... 42.3 N 32.7 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 10/0300H... 41.8 N 33.9 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 45.6N 28.9E... 400 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 205 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL MSHPC ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT... AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER JAVI
Advisory 14A
HURRICANE YURI (4507) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 014A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE //EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING// MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 10 PM PAX MAR 7 2145... 12 AM HPT... 1 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 HURRICANE YURI STRENGTHENS... NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. YURI IS TAKING DIRECT AIM AT PEARSON CLIFFS. THIS IS AN EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING... LANDFALL WITHIN SEVEN HOURS. ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. PEARSON CLIFFS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT... TREES WILL BE DOWNED... FLOODING OF UP TO 180 CM... SIX FEET... IS POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY WILL BE DOWN FOR WEEKS... ANY PERSON EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE SEVERLY INJURED BY FLYING DEBRIS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO... TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! EFFECTS OF HURRICANE YURI ARE POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING... AND DEATHS... IF EVACUATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CARRIED OUT EFFECTIVELY... COULD NUMBER IN THE HUNDREDS... IF NOT MORE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO PEARSON CLIFFS. HURRICANE WARNINGS EXTENDED EAST TO WORKERS POINT. INITIAL INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 115 KT FROM RECENT DVORAK READINGS... AS WELL AS HDCW INFORMATION... AND A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT WHICH REPORTED A MINIMUM SLP OF 947 HECTOPASCALS. HURRICANE YURI IS NOW A DEADLY AND DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IN THE APPROXIMATELY SEVEN HOURS TO LANDFALL IS VERY POSSIBLE. AT 12 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.6N 29.2E... ABOUT 280 KM... 175 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 215 KM/H OR 135 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 947 HPA... YURI IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 40 KM/H. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... YURI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT SEVEN HOURS... OR LESS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 450 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE EAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 290 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/0000 HPT INITIAL... 45.6 N 29.2 E...115 KT...CAT 4 08/0300H... 45.6 N 29.6 E...125 KT 08/1500H... 45.1 N 31.0 E... 95 KT...INLAND 09/0300H... 43.9 N 31.7 E... 40 KT...DISSIPATING 09/1500H... 42.3 N 32.7 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 10/0300H... 41.8 N 33.9 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW OVER WATER REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION... NEAR 45.6N 29.2E... 280 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 215 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST AT 40 KM/H. THE NEXT ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER JAVI
Advisory 15
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 015... CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE //EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING// //SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT// MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY HURRICANE YURI STRENGTHENS FURTHER... SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT: TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 115 KNOTS OR MORE EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON A MAJOR RESIDENTIAL AREA WITHIN SIX HOURS. EMERGENCY WEATHER WARNING: ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. PEARSON CLIFFS IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS. WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT... TREES WILL BE DOWNED... FLOODING OF UP TO 180 CM... SIX FEET... IS POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY WILL BE DOWN FOR WEEKS... ANY PERSON EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE SEVERLY INJURED BY FLYING DEBRIS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO... TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY! EFFECTS OF HURRICANE YURI ARE POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING... AND DEATHS... IF EVACUATIONS HAVE NOT BEEN CARRIED OUT EFFECTIVELY... COULD NUMBER IN THE HUNDREDS... IF NOT MORE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO PEARSON CLIFFS AND EASTWARD TO WORKERS POINT. RECENT RECON INFO REPORTED 120 KNOT WINDS AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 HPA... MAKING YURI ONE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS EVER RECORDED IN THE HEARTLAND... EQUALLING CYCLONE DONNA OF 2135 IN WINDSPEED... AND ONLY BEHIND CYCLONE TINA OF 2133. THANKFULLY... NO FURTHER MAJOR STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST. AT 3 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.6N 29.6E... ABOUT 155 KM... 95 MILES WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 220 KM/H OR 140 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 944 HPA... YURI IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 42 KM/H. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... YURI WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN LESS THAN FOUR HOURS... LIKELY AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 425 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE EAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 220 KM. FURTHER IN THE FORECAST... YURI IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO CURVE INLAND FROM MOST MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS... TAKING YURI BACK OUT TO WATER EAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS AS A LOW-END CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... BEFORE MAKING A SECOND LANDFALL ON WORKERS POINT. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/0300 HPT INITIAL... 45.6 N 29.6 E...120 KT 08/0600H... 45.5 N 30.0 E...115 KT 08/0900H... 45.4 N 30.4 E... 95 KT...INLAND 08/1500H... 45.4 N 31.0 E... 85 KT...OVER WATER 09/0300H... 45.0 N 32.0 E... 55 KT...INLAND 09/1500H... 44.0 N 31.6 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING 10/0300H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 4 AM POSITION... NEAR 45.6N 29.6E... 155 KM WEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 220 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST AT 42 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 9 AM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 AM HPT... 7 AM LOCAL TIME... WITH A SPECIAL ADVISORY AT LANDFALL... IF LANDFALL HAS NOT YET OCCURRED. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER JAVI
Advisory 16
HURRICANE YURI (4507) SPECIAL ADVISORY 016...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE //TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL ALERT// MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 3:45 AM PAX... 5:45 AM HPT... 6:45 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY YURI SPEEDS UP... LANDFALL MADE AT 0635H LST. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE STILL BEING FELT IN PEARSON CLIFFS... DO NOT LEAVE SHELTER! WINDOWS WILL BE BLOWN OUT... TREES WILL BE DOWNED... FLOODING OF UP TO 180 CM... SIX FEET... IS POSSIBLE. ELECTRICITY WILL BE DOWN FOR WEEKS... ANY PERSON EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE SEVERLY INJURED BY FLYING DEBRIS. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE! HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FROM THE LOYALTY/PEARSON MOUNTAINS NORTHWARD TO PEARSON CLIFFS AND EASTWARD TO WORKERS POINT. GROUND REPORT OF 97-KT 8-MIN SUSTAINED WIND... RECENT HDCW ESTIMATES ALSO RETURN CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH... INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 105 KT. AT 6:45 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.5N 30.4E... ABOUT 55 KM... 35 MILES EAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 195 KM/H OR 120 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 949 HPA... YURI IS SPEEDING EASTWARD AT 61 KM/H. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS YURI WILL START TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO INTERATION WITH LAND... RE-EMERGING OVER WATER BY THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS AFLE FORECAST... WHICH MAKES A LOOP AND SECOND LANDFALL ON WORKERS POINT... LIKELY AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 375 KM FROM THE CENTRE... MOSTLY TO THE EAST... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 190 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/0545 HPT INITIAL... 45.5 N 30.4 E...105 KT 08/0900H... 45.4 N 31.2 E... 90 KT...OVER WATER 08/1500H... 46.2 N 31.9 E... 80 KT 08/2100H... 46.4 N 31.2 E... 75 KT 09/0300H... 44.8 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... 43.8 N 31.6 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING 09/1500H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 6:45 AM POSITION... NEAR 45.5N 30.4E... 55 KM EAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 195 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 HPA. YURI IS MOVING EAST AT 61 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 9 AM HPT. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER JAVI
Advisory 17
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 017 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 10 AM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 YURI HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER... STILL A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE WITH 95-KT WINDS. YURI SHOULD START TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS TO THE NORTH-NORTH- EAST... BEFORE MAKING A VERY QUICK LOOP. IT IS STILL UNSAFE TO INSPECT DAMAGE IN PEARSON CLIFFS... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM PEARSON CLIFFS EAST TO WORKERS POINT... HURRICANE WARNINGS DISCONTINUED FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT WEST TO PEARSON CLIFFS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN PEARSON CLIFFS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS... THIS WARNING SHOULD SOON BE DISCONTINUED. HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULAR- FREEDOM COAST. INITIAL INTENSITY IS 95 KNOTS... FROM A COMBINATION OF GROUND REPORTS... HDCW... AND RECON FLIGHT. COOLER SSTS OF NEAR 26 C WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN YURI... IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON WORKERS POINT AS A HURRICANE. AT 9 AM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 45.4N 31.2E ... ABOUT 290 KM... 180 MILES EAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM OR ABOUT 210 KM... 130 MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 175 KM/H OR 110 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 HPA... YURI IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 48 KM/H. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THIS STORM... WHICH IT WASN'T IN THE EARLY DAYS... ALL SEVEN MODELS... INCLUDING HDCW EXTP... HAVE YURI MAKING AN ANTICLOCKWISE LOOP... MAKING LANDFALL ON WORKERS POINT WITHIN EIGHTEEN HOURS. LONG-RANGE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS PREVIOUS GUIDANCE... WITH ONLY SLIGHT LATITUDE FORECAST CHANGE FOR 18 HRS... AND TO DECLARE STORM DISSIPATED BY 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 335 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/0900 HPT INITIAL... 45.4 N 31.2 E... 95 KT 08/1500H... 46.2 N 31.9 E... 80 KT 08/2100H... 46.0 N 31.4 E... 70 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 10 AM POSITION... NEAR 45.4N 31.2E... 290 KM EAST OF PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 175 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 HPA. YURI IS MOVING NNE AT 48 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 3 PM HPT... NO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS PLANNED BUT ONE WILL BE ISSUED AT ANY POINT BEFORE THE FULL ADVISORY IF THE NEED ARISES. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN
Advisory 18
HURRICANE YURI (4507) ADVISORY 018 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 4 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 YURI IS IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP... REMAINS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 PM LOCAL TIME. IT IS NOW SAFE TO INSPECT DAMAGE IN PEARSON CLIFFS. ALL EMERGENCY RESCUES SHOULD BEGIN. SO FAR... ONLY TWO REPORTED DEATHS... BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO RISE SIGNIFICANTLY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WEST OF 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... TO PEARSON CLIFFS... DISCONTINUED. TROPICAL STORM WARRNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. WITH REGARDS TO INITIAL INTENSITY... HDCW REPORTS T4.5 DVORAK... UHWF REPORTS T4.5... AND BUOY IN OPEN WATER REPORTED 95-KT GUSTS. AS SUCH... WE WILL BE SETTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY AT 85 KNOTS... RETAINING YURI AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. WIND SHEAR IS A MODERATE 15 KNOTS... SSTS ARE JUST BARELY ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE... 27 DEG CELSIUS. AS SUCH... YURI IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BEFORE LANDFALL. AT 3 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 46.2N 31.9E ... ABOUT 355 KM... 220 MILES... NORTH OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 KM/H OR 100 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 965 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 40 KM/H... 25 MPH. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS GOOD CONSENSUS ABOUT THIS STORM... LANDFALL ON WORKERS POINT WITHIN TWELVE HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/1500 HPT INITIAL... 46.2 N 31.9 E... 85 KT 08/1800H... 46.5 N 31.3 E... 85 KT 08/2100H... 46.0 N 31.4 E... 80 KT 09/0000H... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 4 PM POSITION... NEAR 46.2N 31.9E... 355 KM NORTH OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 HPA. YURI IS MOVING WNW AT 40 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 9 PM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 6 PM HPT. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTERS RHYSNOLAN/ULEANA
Advisory 18A
HURRICANE YURI (4507) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 018A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 4 PM PAX... 6 PM HPT... 7 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 YURI IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A LOOP STILL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SECOND INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 8:30 PM LOCAL TIME. REPORTS ARE COMING IN FROM PEARSON CLIFFS... QUITE REMARKABLY... LITTLE MAJOR DAMAGE... EARLY DAMAGE ESTIMATES NOT MORE THAN ONE BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS... WHICH WOULD STILL BE A HEARTLAND RECORD. DEATHS ON THE OTHER HAND... AT LEAST ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY FIVE CONFIRMED... BRINGING THE TOTAL TOLL FROM YURI TO 137... AND THE SEASONAL TOTAL TO 299... THESE NUMBERS ARE BY NO MEANS FINAL... ANOTHER REPORT TO COME AT THE 8:30 INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. TROPICAL STORM WARRNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY SET AT 85 KNOTS... UNCHANGED. YURI SHOULD BE PASSING OVER 26-27 DEG C SSTS... AND WIND SHEAR IS A MODERATE 15 KNOTS... AS SUCH... YURI SHOULD MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL. LANDFALL WITHIN NINE HOURS. AT 6 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 46.5N 31.3E ... ABOUT 420 KM... 260 MILES... WEST-NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 KM/H OR 100 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 970 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 30 KM/H. YURI'S LOOP IS ALMOST COMPLETE... AND ALL SEVEN MODELS AGREE ON LANDFALL NEAR OR ON WORKERS POINT... WITHIN NINE HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/1800 HPT INITIAL... 46.5 N 31.3 E... 85 KT 08/1930H... 46.2 N 31.1 E... 80 KT 08/2100H... 46.0 N 31.4 E... 80 KT 09/0000H... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 45 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 46.5N 31.3E... 420 KM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 155 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 HPA. YURI IS MOVING S AT 30 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 9 PM HPT... WITH ANOTHER INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 7:30 PM HPT. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER ULEANA
Advisory 18B
HURRICANE YURI (4507) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 018B LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE //EMERGENCY SEVERE WEATHER WARNING// MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 5:30 PM PAX... 7:30 PM HPT... 8:30 PM LOCAL TIME MAR 8 2145 YURI WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... NOW HEADING SOUTHEAST... LANDFALL IN WORKERS POINT SOON. TROPICAL STORM WARRNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST... FROM 180 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT... EASTWARDS FOR 120 KM. FURTHER EAST... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM 60 KM WEST OF WORKERS POINT EAST TO WORKERS POINT... AS WELL AS WELL AS FOR 20 KM SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. REPORTS KEEP COMING IN FROM PEARSON CLIFFS... EARLY DAMAGE ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 50 MILLION LIVERPOOL DUALPOUNDS...... ONE BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS...WHICH WOULD STILL BE A HEARTLAND RECORD. DEATH TOLL NOW STANDS AT 213... AND THIS MAY YET RISE. THIS SEASON HAS CLAIMED 375 LIVES TO DATE... AND WE ARE BARELY OUT OF THE STARTING GATES. INTERMEDIATE INTENSITY LOWERED TO 80 KT BASED ON COMBINATION OF HDCW AND UHWF ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT RESPECTIVELY. YURI IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL LANDFALL... SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE. OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING YURI BACK TO CATEGORY TWO STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY... GIVEN 27 DEG C SSTS AND 10 KNOT SHEAR. LANDFALL WITHIN NINE HOURS. AT 7:30 PM HPT, THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE YURI ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 46.2N 31.0E ... ABOUT 390 KM... 240 MILES... NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H OR 95 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 974 HPA... YURI IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 43 KM/H. EMERGENCY SEVERE WEATHER WARNING HURRICANE YURI WILL MAKE LANDFALL ON OR NEAR WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM WITHIN NINE HOURS. THIS IS A DEADLY SYSTEM WHICH HAS ALREADY CLAIMED OVER TWO HUNDRED LIVES... AND ALL EMERGENCY PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE COMPLETE. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF YOU HAVE NOT ALREADY DONE SO... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... ESPECIALLY WINDS... SHOULD BE FELT IN WORKERS POINT WITHIN TWO HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 KM FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM. OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES IN HPT/PAX+2 CONVERSION FACTOR 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H INITIAL FORECAST TIME 08/1930 HPT INITIAL... 46.2 N 31.0 E... 80 KT 08/2100H... 46.1 N 31.2 E... 85 KT 09/0000H... 45.5 N 31.6 E... 80 KT 09/0300H... 44.6 N 31.8 E... 50 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 09/0900H... DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 8:30 PM POSITION... NEAR 46.2N 31.0E... 390 KM NORTHWEST OF WORKERS POINT, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 150 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 HPA. YURI IS MOVING SE AT 43 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON HURRICANE YURI WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE AT 9 PM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOLLOWING THAT AT 12 AM HPT. MET SERVICE HQ FORECASTER JAVI
