TD07 (2145)/Past/LLIWO

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TCWC LLIWO (ALPHA)

Advisory and Forecast No. 1

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 1 ON SYSTEM
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO ADD DATE
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 0700H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 0430H

ADVISORY NO. 1 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 300 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 70 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 80 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 025 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 2 KT
TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN COAST OF ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT LOX LAND ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 TO 72
HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 85 KM FROM THE
CENTRE.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 1300H.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SYSTEM THEREFORE THIS IS THE
OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY GORDON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NO. 1 ON SYSTEM
FORECAST HAS BEEN CORRECTED TO NOTE ISSUANCE OF NEXT FORECAST AND DATE
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 0700H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 0430H

FORECAST NO. 1 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 300 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 025 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 2 KT

SIX HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 85%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 275 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 355 DEG NORTH APPROX 3 KT

TWELVE HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 70%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 240 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE STATIONARY

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 60%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 230 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 55 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 295 DEG WEST-NORTHWEST APPROX 2 KT

NEXT OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE IN SIX HOURS AT LOCAL TIME 1300H.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SYSTEM THEREFORE THIS IS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

FORECAST ISSUED BY GORDON.

Advisory and Forecast No. 2

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 2 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM YURI
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1300H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1030H

ADVISORY NO. 2 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 1015H LST ON YURI
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 280 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 75 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 350 DEG NORTH-NORTHWEST APPROX 3 KT
TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HPA

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN COAST OF ISLAND ISSUED BY TCWC LLIWO
AT ADVISORY NO. 1 ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA IS FORECAST TO AFFECT LOX LAND ISLAND IN ABOUT 72 HOURS
AS A REMNANT LOW. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 65 KM
FROM THE CENTRE.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 1900H. NEXT TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON
YURI 4507 AT LOCAL TIME 1530H.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SYSTEM AS YURI 4507 AND IS
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THIS
REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR LOX LAND-REGISTERED WATERCRAFT.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NO. 2 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM YURI
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1300H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1030H

FORECAST NO. 2 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 1015H LST ON YURI BUT THIS ADVISORY DID
NOT INCLUDE A FORECAST.
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 270 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 350 DEG NORTH-NORTHWEST APPROX 3 KT

SIX HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 75%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 235 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 60 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 002 DEG NORTH VERY SLOWLY

TWELVE HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 60%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 230 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 50 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 015 NORTH-NORTHEAST SLOWLY

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR FORECAST
REMNANT LOW
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 55%
CENTRE LOCATED 220 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 35 KM/H
MOVEMENT ESTIMATE STATIONARY

NEXT OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE IN SIX HOURS AT LOCAL TIME 1900H UNLESS MSHPC
INCLUDES AN EXTENDED FORECAST IN NEXT ADVISORY IN WHICH CASE THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL FORECAST FROM TCWC LLIWO.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC FORECAST HAS YET BEEN ISSUED FOR SYSTEM THEREFORE THIS
IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

FORECAST ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Advisory and Forecast No. 3

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 3 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM YURI
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1900H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1630H

ADVISORY NO. 3 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 1530H LST ON YURI
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 260 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 60 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WIND GUSTS REPORTED 70 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT 360 DEG NORTH APPROX 6 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA IS WEAKENING OVER COLD WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS
GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE EAST. THIS MAY BRING ALPHA OVER WARMER WATERS EAST
OF LOX LAND ISLAND RATHER THAN MAKE LANDFALL.

GIVEN THE ABOVE INFORMATION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA IS NO LONGER FORECAST
TO AFFECT LOX LAND ISLAND.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 0100H. NEXT TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON
YURI 4507 AT LOCAL TIME 2130H.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SYSTEM AS YURI 4507 AND IS
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THIS
REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR LOX LAND-REGISTERED WATERCRAFT.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NO. 3 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALPHA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM YURI
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1900H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 1630H

FORECAST NO. 3 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
A TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 1530H LST ON YURI BUT THIS ADVISORY DID
NOT INCLUDE A FORECAST.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 260 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT 360 DEG NORTH APPROX 6 KM/H

SIX HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 70%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LOCATED 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 45 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 015 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 7 KM/H

TWELVE HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 60%
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTRE LOCATED 205 KM SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 60 KM/H
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 035 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 10 KM/H

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 55%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 210 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATED 65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 041 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 11 KM/H

NEXT OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE IN SIX HOURS AT LOCAL TIME 0100H UNLESS MSHPC
INCLUDES AN EXTENDED FORECAST IN NEXT ADVISORY IN WHICH CASE THIS WILL BE THE
FINAL FORECAST FROM TCWC LLIWO.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC FORECAST HAS YET BEEN ISSUED FOR SYSTEM THEREFORE THIS
IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

FORECAST ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Advisory and Forecast No. 4

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 4 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0100H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 2230H

ADVISORY NO. 4 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC FINAL ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 2130H LST ON YURI

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 75%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 65 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 80 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 042 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 10 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 HPA

WIND BUOY SOUTH OF ALPHA REPORTED 35 KT SUSTAINED WINDS AT 0042H LST. THIS
THEREFORE MAKES ALPHA A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. MSHPC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED OF THIS
OCCURRENCE BUT HAS NOT YET PUT OUT A SPECIAL ADVISORY.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 0700H. NO FURTHER MSHPC ADVISORY ON
YURI EXPECTED.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SYSTEM.
THEREFORE THIS IS OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NIGHT FORECAST TEAM//ALPHA.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NO. 4 ON SYSTEM
FORECASST HAS BEEN CORRECTED 'DEPRESSION' TO 'STORM'
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0100H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 04 2145 AT 2230H

FORECAST NO. 4 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
FINAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY WAS RELEASED AT 2130H LST ON YURI AND WHILE THIS
ADVISORY INCLUDED A FORECAST IT WAS THE LAST ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 230 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 042 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 10 KM/H

SIX HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 80%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 200 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 70 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 015 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 7 KM/H

TWELVE HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 75%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 185 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 85 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 035 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 10 KM/H

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 60%
HURRICANE CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 210 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL
HURRICANE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 120 KM/H
HURRICANE MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 066 DEG EAST-NORTHEAST APPROX 12 KM/H

NEXT OFFICIAL FORECAST DUE IN SIX HOURS AT LOCAL TIME 0700H UNLESS MSHPC
ISSUES AN EXTENDED FORECAST IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY IN WHICH CASE THIS WILL
BE THE FINAL FORECAST FROM TCWC LLIWO.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

FORECAST ISSUED BY NIGHT FORECAST TEAM//ALPHA.

Advisory and Forecast No. 5

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 5 ON SYSTEM
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CORRECTED - SYSTEM STRENGTH
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0700H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0430H

ADVISORY NO. 5 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
NO TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IN EFFECT
MSHPC STATEMENT EXPECTED AT 0930H LST.

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 85%
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 75 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 95 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 012 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 8 KM/H
TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HPA

LATEST DATA AVAILABLE TO TCWC LLIWO SUGGEST DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 2.5 - 3.0. THIS
THEREFORE MAKES ALPHA A 40 KNOT TROPICAL STORM. MSHPC HAS INFORMED TCWC LLIWO
OF AN IMPENDING SPECIAL STATMENT TO BE RELEASED AT APPROX 0930H LST. ALPHA
HAS SLOWED IN FORWARD SPEED TO 6 KM/H. AS SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
OF ALPHA ONLY EXTEND 63 KM OUTWARD IN THE NORTHWEST AND 82 KM OUTWARD IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS FROM THE CENTRE NO WARNINGS ARE BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 1300H LST.

NO OFFICIAL TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SYSTEM THEREFORE THIS IS
THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY GORDON.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NO. 5 ON SYSTEM
FINAL FORECAST
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0700H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 0430H

FORECAST NO. 5 ON TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
FINAL FORECAST IN VIEW OF IMPENDING MSHPC STATEMENT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 200 KM SOUTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 012 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 10 KM/H

SIX HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 75%
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 170 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 100 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 075 DEG EAST-NORTHEAST APPROX 4 KM/H

TWELVE HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 70%
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 190 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 110 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 050 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 5 KM/H

TWENTY-FOUR HOUR FORECAST
ACCURACY ESTIMATE 60%
HURRICANE CENTRE LOCATION ESTIMATE 220 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
HURRICANE SUSTAINED WINDS ESTIMATE 140 KM/H
HURRICANE MOVEMENT ESTIMATE 048 DEG NORTHEAST APPROX 12 KM/H

MSHPC WILL ISSUE EXTENDED FORECAST IN STATEMENT EXPECTED AT AROUND 0930H LST.
THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST FROM TCWC LLIWO UNTIL THE MSHPC CEASES FORECASTS IN
ADVISORIES.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

FORECAST ISSUED BY GORDON.

Advisory No. 6

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 6 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 1300H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 1030H

ADVISORY NO. 6 ON INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON YURI ISSUED AT 0930H LST

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 80%
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 170 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 100 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 125 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 077 DEG EAST-NORTHEAST APPROX 5 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF OF ALPHA EXTEND OUTWARD
188 KM FROM THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHWEST AND 210 KM FROM THE CENTRE IN
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AND INTENSE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS - WINDS
OVER 100 KM/H - EXTEND OUTWARD 34 KM FROM THE CENTRE MAINLY IN THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT.

TCWC LLIWO HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
LOX LAND ISLAND. TCWC LLIWO HAS ISSUED HURRICANE WATCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA - THESE ARE UNOFFICIAL
UNTIL THE MSHPC OFFICIALLY ISSUES THEM FOR THE PENINSULA AS IT IS OUTSIDE
THE AOR OF TCWC LLIWO.

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CITY. THESE ARE LIKELY TO LAST FOR
24 HOURS.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 1900H LST.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY
FOR ALL WATERCRAFT WITHIN TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND'S GOVERNMENT.

OFFSHORE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AN
AREA FOR 300 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Advisory No. 7

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 7 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 1900H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 1630H

ADVISORY NO. 7 ON INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON YURI ISSUED AT 1530H LST

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 75%
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM CENTRE LOCATED 195 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 110 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS REPORTED 130 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM MOVEMENT 027 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 2 KM/H
INTENSE TROPICAL STORM ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HPA

TCWC LLIWO WARNINGS - 

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CITY.

OFFSHORE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AN
AREA FOR 300 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL.

TCWC MSHPC OFFICIAL WARNINGS -

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 0100H LST.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY
FOR ALL WATERCRAFT WITHIN TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND'S GOVERNMENT.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Advisory 8

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 8 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS HURRICANE ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 06 2145 AT 0100H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 05 2145 AT 2230H

ADVISORY NO. 8 ON HURRICANE ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON YURI ISSUED AT 2130H LST

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 85%
HURRICANE CENTRE LOCATED 210 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
HURRICANE SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 120 KM/H
HURRICANE MOVEMENT 024 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 6 KM/H
HURRICANE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 HPA

TCWC LLIWO WARNINGS - 

INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND
SURROUNDING AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CITY.

INLAND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND SURROUNDING
AREAS TO THE EAST OF THE CITY. THESE WILL NOT LAST LONGER THAN 24 HOURS.

OFFSHORE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AN
AREA FOR 300 KM EAST OF SCHIMPOL.

OFFSHORE HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR AN AREA WITHIN A 45 KM RADIUS OF
THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE ALPHA.

TCWC MSHPC OFFICIAL WARNINGS -

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE.

HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST.

NEXT ADVISORY ON SYSTEM AT LOCAL TIME 0700H LST.

SYSTEM HURRICANE ALPHA IS MOVING AWAY FROM LOX LAND ISLAND AND GRADUALLY OUT
OF TCWC LLIWO'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE FINAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED
AT 0700H LST UNLESS CIRCUMSTANCES WARRANT.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY
FOR ALL WATERCRAFT WITHIN TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND'S GOVERNMENT.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Advisory 9

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 9 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS HURRICANE ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 06 2145 AT 0700H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 06 2145 AT 0430H

ADVISORY NO. 9 ON HURRICANE ALPHA.
TCWC MSHPC ADVISORY ON YURI ISSUED AT 0330H LST

ADVISORY/WARNING CONFIDENCE 75%
HURRICANE CENTRE LOCATED 365 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
HURRICANE SUSTAINED WINDS REPORTED 165 KM/H
HURRICANE MOVEMENT 021 DEG NORTH-NORTHEAST APPROX 11 KM/H
HURRICANE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 HPA

TCWC LLIWO WARNINGS - 

ALL INLAND WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

OFFSHORE HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR AN AREA WITHIN A 45 KM RADIUS OF
THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE ALPHA.

//

TCWC MSHPC OFFICIAL WARNINGS -

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND.

HURRICANE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA INCLUDING BORLEAI DEFENSE POST.

//

SYSTEM HURRICANE ALPHA IS MOVING AWAY FROM LOX LAND ISLAND AND WILL SOON
LEAVE TCWC LLIWO'S AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. THE NEXT ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED
FOR 1300H LST... BUT SHOULD THE STORM LEAVE THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY
WHICH IS DEFINED AS 400 KM FROM THE COAST OF THE ISLAND BEFORE THEN
TCWC LLIWO WILL ISSUE AN UPDATE.

THIS IS PROVISIONALLY THE FINAL ADVISORY.

AN OFFICIAL TCWC ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THIS REMAINS THE OFFICIAL ADVISORY
FOR ALL WATERCRAFT WITHIN TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE ISLAND'S GOVERNMENT
UNTIL THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AOR OF TCWC LLIWO.

ADVISORY ISSUED BY NITKAN.

Update

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
UPDATE ON SYSTEM
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
SYSTEM IS HURRICANE ALPHA
LOCAL TIME IS MARCH 06 2145 AT 0930H
PAX TIME IS MARCH 06 2145 AT 0700H

UPDATE ON HURRICANE ALPHA.

HURRICANE ALPHA HAS LEFT THE WARNING AREA OF TCWC LLIWO.

FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS SYSTEM ARE AVAILABLE FROM THE MSHPC
AS HURRICANE YURI.

ALL TCWC LLIWO WARNINGS DISCONTINUED.

PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MSHPC BULLETIN FOR OTHER WARNINGS.

AT THE TIME HURRICANE ALPHA LEFT THE WARNING AREA IT HAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 165 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE WAS 971 HPA AND IT WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTH-
EAST AT 14 KM/H.

REPEAT
HURRICANE ALPHA HAS LEFT THE WARNING AREA OF TCWC LLIWO.
PLEASE REFER TO LATEST MSHPC BULLETIN FOR MORE INFORMATION.

UPDATE ISSUED BY NITKAN.