TD08 (2145)/Past

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Tropical Depression Eight

Advisory 1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 001... SPECIAL ADVISORY...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
2 AM PAX... 4 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145
CORRECTED SPELLING OF SANKT RIURIK IN FORECAST
CORRECTED AT 6:45 AM HPT TO INDICATE NEXT ADVISORY AND TO CHANGE FORECAST

HDCW REPORTED AT 0513H LST THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND HAD A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... AND T NUMBERS WERE 1.5/1.5 FROM HCDW AND UHWF
AT 0531H LST AND 0517H LST RESPECTIVELY... MAKING THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. PER THE T-NUMBERS... INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KNOTS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS NEAR AN AREA OF DRY AIR... AND MAY NOT LAST LONG.
INDEED... THE AFLE MODEL BRINGS THIS TO A MINIMAL 35-KT TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT BY 48 HOURS. THE UHWF SUGGESTS THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION EIGHT MAY BE SLIGHTLY SUBTROPICAL AT THIS POINT... AND PEAKS IT AS
A 45-KT TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL NEAR SANKT RIURIK. THE HCDW'S EXTRAPOLATED
MODEL SUGGESTS A PEAK OF 38 KNOTS BEFORE DISSIPATION IN 72 HOURS. GIVEN THE
ABOVE... AND THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF DRY AIR AND 25-KT WIND SHEAR AWAITING
IT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL DISSIPATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IN 60 HOURS.

AT 6 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT LOCATED ABOUT 285 KM... 180 MILES
NORTHEAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... ABOUT 430 KM... 270 MILES EAST OF
LOCKE HARBOUR... OR ABOUT 995 KM... 620 MILES... NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK,
VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
16 KM/H... 10 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HECTOPASCALS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
 INITIAL... 995 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
 6 HOURS... 890 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
12 HOURS... 755 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
24 HOURS... 515 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
36 HOURS... 300 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
48 HOURS... 215 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
72 HOURS...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 002... CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145
CORRECTED TO SWAP "HDCW" AND "UHWF" IN FIRST PARA.
CORRECTED FORECAST.

CONVECTION HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... AND IT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UHWF REPORTS T1.5 AT 0949H LST AND HDCW REPORTED THAT
A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1011H LST FAILED TO FIND ANY CLEAR CENTRE OF THIS SYSTEM.
AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
885 KM... 555 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 14 MPH.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THIS SYSTEM. THE AFLE STILL PEAKS
IT AS A 35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM IN 18 HOURS... WHICH MAY SEEM TO BE THE MOST
LIKELY OCCURRENCE. THE UHWF IS STILL INSISTING ON A 45 KT TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL IN SANKT RIURIK... THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED MODEL PEAKS IT
AT 41 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. I DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL SURVIVE
THE CONDITIONS LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE LANDFALL... AS WELL AS A SOUTHWESTERLY
TURN IN THE STORM'S PATH BEING FORECAST... BUT THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ATTAIN
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE AFLE MODEL...
BUT THERE IS LITTLE... IF ANY... CHANGE IN TRACK.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY AS THE STORM GRADUALLY INCREASES IN FORWARD
SPEED.

REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 885 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1013 HPA. TD EIGHT IS
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 30-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/0900 HPT

 INITIAL... 885 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
06/1500H... 745 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT
07/0300H... 505 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1500H... 285 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT...DISSIPATING
08/0300H... 200 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...REMNANT LOW
08/1500H...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER...

CONVECTION WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY IN
THE PAST SIX HOURS... AND IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVOURABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SOON. QUIKSCAT PASS AT 1626H LST MANAGED TO DETERMINE
CIRCULATION CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT... WHICH MAY INDICATE IT GETTING
BETTER ORGANISED. DVORAK READINGS FROM HDCW AT 1455H LST SEEMED TO INDICATE
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING... AND AS SUCH... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED
TO 30 KNOTS.

AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
750 KM... 470 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 21 KM/H... 13 MPH.

THE MODELS STILL FAIL TO AGREE ON THIS SYSTEM... HOWEVER... ONE MAJOR CHANGE
FROM THE LAST ADVISORY IS THAT THE UHWF NO LONGER INSISTS ON LANDFALL... AND
THE HDCW'S EXTRAPOLATED FORECAST ALSO NO LONGER SHOWS LANDFALL TO TAKE THE
UHWF MODEL INTO ACCOUNT. I BELIEVE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO
FORM... AND SURVIVE A WHILE... BEFORE SHEAR TEARS IT APART.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPEEDS THE STORM UP A LITTLE FROM 12 HOURS THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... TOPPING OFF AT NEAR 40 KM/H AT ONE POINT. INTENSITY
FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN CHANGED.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA
OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 750 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 21 KM/H.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS.
SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED FOUR ZERO FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A
BEARING OF THREE ONE ONE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/1500 HPT

 INITIAL... 750 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
06/2100H... 620 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/0300H... 500 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
07/1500H...  20 KM     W SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
08/0300H... 200 KM   WSW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
08/1500H...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT (4508) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 6 2145

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION A BIT STRONGER...

SHORT AND SIMPLE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS STILL GAINING STRENGTH BUT
IS RUNNING OUT OF TIME.

AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
620 KM... 390 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 24 KM/H... 15 MPH.

ON ITS CURRENT TRACK... TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT WILL ENTER A HIGH-SHEAR
REGION WITHIN 18 HOURS. THIS LEAVES VERY LITTLE TIME FOR STRENGTHENING...
WHICH IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR. ALL MODELS... INCLUDING THE HDCW'S
EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... HAVE BEEN IGNORED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FACTORS.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA
OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK. THIS MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24-36 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION... 620 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 24 KM/H.

NEXT ADVISORY DUE AT 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS
WITHIN 40-NM RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS.
SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED THREE THREE FIVE NAUTICAL MILES ON A
BEARING OF THREE ZERO FIVE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ARE THREE ZERO KNOTS... FORECAST FOR ZERO SIX HOURS... TWO FIVE FIVE
NAUTICAL MILES ON A BEARING OF THREE ONE THREE DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. FORECAST
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTRE TO BE THREE FIVE KNOTS. FORECAST WIND RADIUS OF
THIRTY-FOUR KNOT WINDS ARE ONE THREE NAUTICAL MILES.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 06/2100 HPT

 INITIAL... 620 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
07/0300H... 475 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1500H... 190 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 6

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145

GYARNIFQ LOSES MUCH CONVECTION AND WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.

A RECENT QUIKSCAT SUGGESTS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN BEFORE. NOT MANY 35-KT WIND
BANDS ARE BEING REPORTED... AND NEAR THE CENTRE ALMOST NO 35-KT WIND BANDS.
AS SUCH... INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KT... BUT EVEN A SLIGHT 
INCREASE IN CONVECTION WOULD PUSH GYARNIFQ BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.

AT 11 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
330 KM... 205 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 15 MPH.

GYARNIFQ MAY RESTRENGTHEN SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL... LANDFALL EXPECTED IN
ABOUT 12 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST
OF NEW VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT
RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INSIDE
24 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM POSITION... 330 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TROPICAL DPRSN GYARNIFQ
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H.

SHIPPING ADVISORY... CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT WITH AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/0900 HPT

 INITIAL... 330 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
07/1500H... 190 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/2100H... VERY NEAR    SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Tropical Storm Gyarnifq

Advisory 5

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 005...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145
CORRECTED INITIAL FORECAST TIME

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FINALLY BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM... NAMED GYARNIFQ
- THE NAME CONTRIBUTED BY MIRACLIA.

AT 5 AM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
470 KM... 295 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD AT NEAR 23 KM/H... 15 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS INTENSITY UNTIL LANDFALL.

PIECES OF INFORMATION HAVE BEEN STREAMING IN FROM HDCW REGARDING THIS SYSTEM
SUGGESTING THAT THIS SYSTEM HAS GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED
A TROPICAL STORM. A RECENT RECON AIRCRAFT CONFIRMED 35-KNOT WINDS NEAR THE
CENTRE... INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE 35 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW VARANGIA OF
THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT RIURIK... HAVE BEEN
CANCELLED IN FAVOUR OF TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. THIS MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA INSIDE 24 HOURS. TAKE SHELTER
IMMEDIATELY.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 25 KM... 15 MILES FROM THE
CENTRE, MOSTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. ON ITS CURRENT FORECAST TRACK... SANKT RIURIK
SHOULD BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITHIN 18 HOURS.

REPEATING THE 5 AM POSITION... 470 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ
IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 23 KM/H.

NEXT FULL ADVISORY DUE AT 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY
IS NOT BEING PLANNED FOR AT THIS TIME. REQUEST FOR REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN 40-NM
RADIUS OF STORM CENTRE TO MSHPC LUNAR CITY BUREAU EVERY THREE HOURS.
SHIPPING ADVISORY... CENTRE OF STORM LOCATED TWO FIVE FIVE - 255 NAUTICAL MILES ON A
BEARING OF THREE ONE SIX DEGREES FROM SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
CENTRE ARE THREE FIVE KNOTS... EXTENT OF THIRTY-FOUR-KNOT WINDS ARE ONE THREE - 13
NAUTICAL MILES.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/0300 HPT

 INITIAL... 470 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/0900H... 330 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1500H... 190 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/2100H... VERY NEAR    SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 6A

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 006A
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
10 AM PAX... 12 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145

GYARNIFQ REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH GYARNIFQ HAS INCREASED AGAIN OVER THE LAST THREE
HOURS... AND A RECENT DVORAK READING RETURNED T2.5 FROM HDCW. THEREFORE...
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS RAISED TO 35 KT... BUT
THIS VALUE DOES NOT COUNT TOWARDS THE ACE VALUE OF THE STORM.

AT 2 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
260 KM... 165 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 65 KM/H OR 40 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 26 KM/H... 16 MPH. ON THIS FORECAST
TRACK... GYARNIFQ SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN NINE HOURS. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO SPEED UP CLOSER TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF NEW
VARANGIA OF THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY... FROM DANJLGRAD SOUTH TO SANKT
RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
IN THIS CASE... WITHIN TWELVE HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD
BE COMPLETE.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 25 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

REPEATING THE 2 PM POSITION... 260 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 26 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT WITH AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOLLOWING THAT AT 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1200 HPT

 INITIAL... 260 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1500H... 180 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/1800H...  90 KM    NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/2100H... INLAND  NEAR SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER RYAN

Advisory 7

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 007
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145

GYARNIFQ STRENGTHENS A LITTLE UNEXPECTEDLY...

INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40 KNOTS FROM LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS AND INFO
FROM HDCW. THE STORM HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
WITHIN FOUR AND A HALF HOURS.

AT 5 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
170 KM... 105 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN CONFEDERACY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH... THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CLOSE BY IS PUSHING THIS
SYSTEM FORWARD TO THE SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 38 KM/H... 24 MPH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... A DIRECT HIT ON SANKT RIURIK IS THE MOST LIKELY
OCCURRENCE. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK ARE BEING
DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA AROUND
SANKT RIURIK... TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
IN THIS CASE... WITHIN SIX HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD
BE COMPLETE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM
50 KILOMETRES NORTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD TO DANJLGRAD. THESE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE CANCELLED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 35 KM FROM THE CENTRE.

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 170 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TROPICAL
STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 38 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT WITH AN
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY FOLLOWING THAT AT 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1500 HPT

 INITIAL... 170 KM      NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
07/1800H...  55 KM      NW SANKT RIURIK... 35 KT
07/2100H... INLAND 40KM  S SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 7A

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 007A...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
4 PM PAX... 6 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145
CORRECTED TO ADD NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY TIME

GYARNIFQ VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL...

HDCW EXTRAPOLATED, AFLE, UHWF, TCED, THTC, HGCL AND THFB MODELS ALL FORECAST
45 KNOT LANDFALL. HOWEVER... WITH RECENT REPORTS FROM QUIKSCAT, HDCW AND UHWF
... INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KNOTS.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM
JUST SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD FOR 55 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
FURTHER NORTH TO DANJLGRAD HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 8 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 38.2E...
APPROXIMATELY 50 KM... 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN
CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH...
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT NEAR 38 KM/H... 24 MPH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... A DIRECT HIT ON SANKT RIURIK WILL OCCUR WITHIN
TWO HOURS. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY IF NOT ALREADY IN SHELTER. ALL PREPARATIONS
TO LIMIT DAMAGE SHOULD BE COMPLETE.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 55 KM FROM THE CENTRE.
SANKT RIURIK SHOULD ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM POSITION... 40.8N 38.2E... 170 KM NORTHWEST OF SANKT RIURIK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 38 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT WITH
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT LANDFALL.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1800 HPT

 INITIAL...  50 KM      NW SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
07/2100H... INLAND 40KM  S SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0300H... INLAND DISSIPATED

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 8

TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ (4508) SPECIAL ADVISORY 008
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
5:30 PM PAX... 7:30 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145

GYARNIFQ HAS MADE LANDFALL. REPORT OF EYE CROSSING COAST AT 2120H LST.

HDCW REPORTED 43-KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL... UHWF REPORTED 51 KNOTS
... OBSERVERS ON GROUND REPORTED 37-KNOT TEN MINUTE WINDS. INITIAL INTENSITY
IS THEREFORE HELD AT 40 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NEW VARANGIA FROM
JUST SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK NORTHWARD FOR 55 KM HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD
130 KM AS GYARNIFQ IS NOW MOVING SOUTHWARDS... AND WILL SOON RE-EMERGE OVER
WATER. WHETHER IT WILL BE ABLE TO REGENERATE... IS ANOTHER QUESTION. MY
PERSONAL THOUGHT IS THAT IT WILL NOT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS
DISSIPATION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THTC AND THFB MODELS BOTH CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE... BUT THESE TWO MODELS HAVE BEEN RELIED
ON LESS FOR THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON AFLE, UHWF AND COMMON
SENSE.

AT 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.5N 38.6E
... VERY NEAR... OR PERHAPS EVEN OVER... SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN
CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 75 KM/H OR 45 MPH...
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH
AT NEAR 35 KM/H... 22 MPH.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GYARNIFQ SHOULD RE-EMERGE OVER WATER WITHIN SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER... NO SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD 55 KM FROM THE CENTRE.
SANKT RIURIK SHOULD ALREADY BE EXPERIENCING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS.

REPEATING THE 9:30 PM POSITION... 40.5N 38.6E... NEAR OR OVER SANKT RIURIK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.
TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS MOVING SOUTHWARDS AT ABOUT 35 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/1930 HPT

 INITIAL... NEAR OR OVER   SANKT RIURIK... 40 KT
07/2100H... INLAND 40KM  S SANKT RIURIK... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0300H... 250 KM       S SANKT RIURIK... 25 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0900H...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 9

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) ADVISORY 009
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME MARCH 7 2145

GYARNIFQ NOW INLAND. STILL UNSAFE TO INSPECT DAMAGE. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE
GUSTS ARE STILL BLOWING. INITIAL INTENSITY IS DROPPED TO 30 KNOTS FROM A
RECENT GROUND REPORT OF 26-KT 8-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS.

ALL WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED.

GYARNIFQ HAS TAKEN A TURN TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST... AND WILL PROBABLY
NOT RE-EMERGE OVER WATER. THTC... THFB... AND HGCL MODELS ALL STILL
SHOW GYARNIFQ RE-EMERGING INTO WATER... WITH THE FORMER TWO STRENGTHENING
IT INTO A 67-KT HURRICANE. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY... AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL PRETTY MUCH FOLLOW THE UHWF EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... WHICH
TAKES GYARNIFQ FURTHER OVER LAND... DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES THE
LIVONIA-MEISSEN BORDER.

AT 11 PM LOCAL TIME... TROPICAL STORM GYARNIFQ IS LOCATED NEAR 40.4N 38.7E
... ABOUT 40 KM... 25 MILES... SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK IN THE VARANGIAN
CONFEDERACY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE 55 KM/H OR 35 MPH...
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS MOVING TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST AT NEAR 27 KM/H... 17 MPH.

THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS OF DISSIPATING... BUT I AM NOT READY...
AS YET... TO PULL THE PLUG ON GYARNIFQ... IN CASE IT DOES TAKE THAT
UNEXPECTED TURN BACK OVER WATER.

REPEATING THE 11 PM POSITION... 40.4N 38.7E... 40 KM SOUTH OF SANKT RIURIK.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS AT ABOUT 27 KM/H.

THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 AM HPT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
CONVERSION... 1 KT = 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 07/2100 HPT

 INITIAL... 40.4 N 38.7 E... 30 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0300H... 40.3 N 40.2 E... 25 KT... DISSIPATING
08/0900H...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 10

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ (4508) FINAL ADVISORY 010
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
TCWC MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU OFFICE
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME MARCH 8 2145

REMNANTS OF GYANRNIFQ DISSIPATING/BEING ABSORBED INTO LARGER SYSTEM. THIS
IS THE FINAL ADVISORY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT... STORM IS DISSIPATING.

AT 5 AM LOCAL TIME... THE REMNANTS OF EX - TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ
ARE LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 40.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 50 KM/H OR 30 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 HPA. GYARNIFQ IS
MOVING TO THE EAST AT NEAR 47 KM/H... 29 MPH.

WE ARE PULLING THE PLUG ON THIS STORM.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION GYARNIFQ.

FORECASTERS HUNTER/JARVINEN