TD10 (2145)/Past
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Tropical Depression Ten
Advisory 1
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN (4510) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145 RECON DATA IS IN. RECON REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT... WHILE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 34 KT HAVE BEEN REPORTED... ALBEIT VERY SPARSELY... BY SHIPS IN THE REGION. BASED ON T-NUMBERS FROM HDCW AND UHWF... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN... LOCATED FAR WEST OF TORQUAY AND FAR EAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN NO-MAN'S LAND... AT 30 KNOTS. WIND SHEAR IS A VERY LOW 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM... NEAR 35 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS MIGHT LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS BECAME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT 10 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 10.4E... OR ABOUT 3580 KM... 2240 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO, VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... GUSTING TO 45 KT... AND TD-TEN IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH... THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 72 TO 96 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN FORECASTING STORMS THAT ARE IN THIS GENERAL AREA... AS SEEN WITH FELICIA AND GEORGE... THE LOCATION FORECASTS ARE NOT PROVIDED BEYOND 36 HOURS... AND ONLY INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE PROVIDED. BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT... TD-TEN WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 36 HOURS. LATER IN THE 96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND BRINGS TD-TEN TO A CATEGORY FOUR 120-KT HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH... INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES IN HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.4 E... 30 KT 10/0300H... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 45 KT 11/2100H... 14.0 S 08.3 E... 60 KT 12/0900H... 14.0 S 07.6 E... 75 KT 12/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ... 95 KT 13/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ...110 KT 14/2100H... UNAVAILABLE ...120 KT REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 13.8S 10.4E OR ABOUT 3580 KM EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 HPA. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Tropical Storm Griel
Advisory 2
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 002 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 INITIAL INTENSITY IS BUMPED UP TO 40 KNOTS BASED ON EVER-RISING T-NUMBERS... HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. WIND SHEAR IS ALMOST ZERO. WATERS ARE WAY TOO WARM...NEAR 36 DEG C IN SOME PLACES... AND THIS WILL LEAD TO EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A HURRICANE IN 12-18 HOURS... AND A MAJOR HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 48. AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8S 10.0E... OR ABOUT 3455 KM... 2160 MILES... EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO, VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... GUSTING TO 60 KT... AND GRIEL IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H... 15 MPH... THIS MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. BASED ON AVAILABLE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH ARE ALL GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT... GRIEL WILL BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 HOURS. LATER IN THE 96-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD... THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HDCW EXTRAPOLATED MODEL... AND MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST... 1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 115 MPH... INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES IN HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 10.0 E... 40 KT 11/0900H... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 55 KT 11/1500H... 14.0 S 08.6 E... 70 KT...CAT 1 12/0300H... 14.0 S 07.9 E... 80 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 07.2 E... 95 KT...CAT 2 13/0300H... 13.9 S 06.4 E...115 KT...CAT 4 14/0300H... 13.8 S 04.8 E...145 KT...CAT 5 15/0300H... 14.0 S 03.3 E...120 KT...CAT 4 IT SHOULD BE NOTED LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE SUBJECT TO ERRORS OF UP TO 40 KT ON DAY 3... AND 50 KT ON DAY 5. REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... 13.8S 10.0E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 3
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 003 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 GRIEL IS STARTING TO ENCOUNTER SHEAR FROM A NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW... SSTS ARE ALSO RAPIDLY DECLINING... ALTHOUGH STILL SUPPORT TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY... AT 29 DEG C. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 40 KT. THE MSHPC IS NOT NECESSARILY SKILLED IN FORECASTING THIS PARTICULAR AREA OF THE HEARTLAND AND WILL RELY HEAVILY ON THE COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH NOW ALL CALL FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE TOPS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 9.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 HPA/MBAR. COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS... I DO NOT TRUST THEM BUT THEY WILL HAVE TO DO HERE... FORECAST IS BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS. FORECAST FOR 72 HOURS INITIAL... 13.9 S 09.2 E... 40 KT 11/1500H... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 40 KT 11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.4 E... 45 KT 12/0900H... 13.9 S 07.6 E... 50 KT 12/2100H... 13.9 S 06.8 E... 60 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 05.9 E... 70 KT 14/0900H... 13.9 S 04.2 E... 60 KT THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 4
4510 TCWC HPCLC TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 004...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD CO-FORECASTER NAME GRIEL STRENGTHENS IN 29 DEG C WARM WATERS... INITIAL INTENSITY NOTCHED UPWARDS TO 55 KNOTS. THE COMPUTER MODELS HAVE FAILED THE FORECASTERS... AND THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON WHAT LITTLE EXPERTISE WE HAVE IN FORECASTING STORMS FOR THIS AREA OF THE REGION. ACCORDINGLY... THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS ONCE AGAIN RAISED TO MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... CATEGORY THREE WITHIN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO HAS GRIEL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR PUERTO NUEVO AS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JUST AFTER 96 HOURS. AT 3 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 8.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 3160 KM... 1975 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 KM/H... 65 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MOVING WEST AT 33 KM/H OR 21 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST 36-48 HOURS. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 11/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.7 E... 55 KT 11/2100H... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E... 95 KT 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...105 KT... CAT 3 14/1500H... 13.8 S 02.2 E...110 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...105 KT WE DO NOT EXPECT THE NEED FOR TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR ANOTHER 48 HOURS OR SO. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTERS LAVAL/RINDLI
Hurricane Griel
Advisory 5
4510 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 005 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT/LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145 GRIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... FOR ONCE... THE MSHPC IS RIGHT ON WITH FORECASTING THIS STORM... GRIEL IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. THE VALUE OF 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS REACHED BASED ON CONSENSUS T-NUMBERS OF 4.0 FROM BOTH HDCW AND UHWF. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 8.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 3000 KM... 1875 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR- SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 27 KM/H OR 17 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM... 30 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... WHICH IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF MODEL CONSENSUS... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY SOON BE NEEDED FOR VASSFFORCIA. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 11/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 08.0 E... 65 KT... CAT 1 12/0300H... 13.8 S 07.4 E... 75 KT 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 80 KT 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E... 90 KT... CAT 2 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...100 KT... CAT 3 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...105 KT 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.5 E...115 KT... CAT 4 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 6
4510 TCWC HPCLC HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 006...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED FIRST PARA RE SHIP REPORTS GRIEL CONTINUES TO SPIN ITS WAY WESTWARD... GETTING EVER STRONGER... RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM SHIPS WITHIN A 100-NM RADIUS OF THE CENTRE OF GRIEL HAVE BEEN AS HIGH AS GUSTS TO 100 KT AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO 95 KT. GRIEL IS STRENGTHENING FAIRLY RAPIDLY IN 29-DEG C WATERS. A 0214H HPT QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTED A FEW 95-KT RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS ... AS WELL AS A FEW CLEAN 80-KT VECTORS. AT 0133H PAX... UHWF REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 5.0... WHILE AT 0241H PAX... THE MOST RECENT DATA WE HAVE... HDCW REPORTED T-NUMBER OF 4.5. TAKING INTO ACCOUNT ALL OF THESE FACTORS ... I HAVE DECIDED TO SET THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 85 KT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE 95-KT SHIP REPORTS... PLUS 85 KT IS A GOOD MEAN BETWEEN T-NUMBERS 4.5 OF 77 KT AND 5.0 OF 90 KT. THIS MAKES GRIEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 7.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 2870 KM... 1795 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 KM/H... 100 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND. THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 KM... 55 MILES ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 07.5 E... 85 KT... CAT 2 12/0900H... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...140 KT... CAT 5 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 7.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT BY THE OREAN HEADQUARTERS UNDER REGIONAL HEADER 4510 TCWC HPCOR. FORECASTER RINDLI
Advisory 7
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 007 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 GRIEL STRENGTHENS FURTHER AND IS NOW A 95-KT HURRICANE... AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.S SOUTH LONGITUDE 6.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 2710 KM... 1695 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 175 KM/H... 110 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A HIGH-END CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND COULD SOON BECOME THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H OR 16 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 HPA/ MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. I WILL HAVE TO BORROW HEAVILY FROM THE LAST FORECAST DISCUSSION... AWAITING GRIEL IS VERY LITTLE. THE 29-DEG C WATERS WILL CONTINUE WEST TO THE EDGE OF VENERATIO... WHEN IT DROPS OFF TO 27 DEG C. WIND SHEAR IS LOW... 5 TO 10 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT LAND IS IN THE WAY OR ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STORM TO IMPACT IT... YET. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING WILL CONTINUE... AND GRIEL MAY BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE COMPUTER MODELS ARE QUITE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM... AND WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN HOW UNRELIABLE THEY ARE IN THIS AREA OF THE HEARTLAND. THEREFORE... THEY HAVE BEEN DISREGARDED. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES ... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOR VASSFFORCIA. THE SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL OF VASSFFORCIA HAS ISSUED TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.9 E... 95 KT... CAT 2 12/1500H... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...120 KT... CAT 4 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...125 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT 16/0900H... 13.8 S 02.0 W... 95 KT REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
Advisory 8
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 008...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD PARA ON TS WATCHES ..GRIEL NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 MAJOR HURRICANE... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTH TO COAST OF IBPORTIA... LOCAL SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ADVISORIES FROM VASSFFORCIA ARE IN EFFECT... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS 110 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES... HDCW... UHWF... HWS... HPD 26. HOWEVER... DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS... AS WELL AS A RAIN-MARRED QUIKSCAT PASS A WHILE AGO MEANS THAT WE'LL BE SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY AT 105 KT... MAKING GRIEL THE SEASON'S SECOND MAJOR HURRICANE AFTER YURI. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 6.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2420 KM... 1510 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 195 KM/H... 120 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 40 KM/H OR 25 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 HPA/MBAR. THIS GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... CULMINATING IN LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORICA... FROM THE COAST OF IBPORTIA NORTHWARD TO PRUBDABLIA ... TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 300 KM... 190 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 KM... 65 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. THE FORECAST IS OMINOUS... AND IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THE MODELS ARE WILLING TO CO-OPERATE WITH US. AFLE SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST GRIP ON THIS SYSTEM... BUT ITS INTENSITY IS WAY OFF. IN CONTRAST ... HDCW EXTRAPOLATED ISN'T VERY GOOD WITH THE TRACK... TAKING GRIEL AS FAR NORTH AS 13.0 NORTH AT 120 HOURS... WHICH IS QUITE RIDICULOUS... BUT SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD IDEA ON INTENSITY. AS A RESULT... THE FORECAST TRACK WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE MSHPC'S PREVIOUS ONE... WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWING THE HDCW. THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS INHIBITING FACTORS... YET... UNTIL GRIEL REACHES THE EDGE OF THE VENERATIO CONTINENT WHERE WATERS START TO DROP TO ABOUT 27 C. TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REGIONS OF PUERTO NUEVO... VILLE DE FOGRES... PAYS DU GÜENDABAL AS WELL AS THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE RIVER ZULFÍA. EVACUATION ORDERS MAY SOON BE ISSUED BY THE VASSFFORCIAN AUTHORITIES... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL OFFICIALS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 06.2 E...105 KT... CAT 3 12/2100H... 13.9 S 05.7 E...110 KT 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...125 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...130 KT 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT 16/1500H... 13.8 S 02.5 W... 75 KT...VERY CLOSE TO LAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 6.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 195 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 26 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
Advisory 9
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 009 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 ..GRIEL STRENGTHENS INTO SEASON'S SECOND CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT... SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL UNV HAS ISSUED EVACUATION ORDERS... PLEASE CONSULT LOCAL AUTHORITIES FOR MORE INFORMATION. MODELS INITIALISED GRIEL AT 110 KT... BUT GRIEL'S IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS THE JUSTIFICATION FOR SETTING INITIAL INTENSITY AT 115 KNOTS... OR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. FURTHER GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND GRIEL COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 5.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 2290 KM... 1430 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 215 KM/H... 135 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H OR 14 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 954 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO... AS WELL AS THE ADJACENT COAST. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORICA... FROM THE COAST OF IBPORTIA NORTHWARD TO PRUBDABLIA. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS... WHILE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 KM... 75 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 12/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.7 E...115 KT... CAT 4 13/0300H... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...130 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...135 KT 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...140 KT... CAT 5 15/2100H... 13.9 S 00.8 W...105 KT 16/2100H... 13.0 S 03.5 W... 50 KT... INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 215 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H. THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTERS JARVINEN/HARDING
Advisory 10
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 010...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145 CORRECTED TO ADD ADDITIONAL TC WARNINGS GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 3 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 385 KM... AND FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST. HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST. AT 3 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH- WESTERN COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01. AT 3 AM HPT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH- WESTERN CAPE OF ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 5.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 2130 KM... 1330 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 340 KM... 215 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM... 90 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR EVACUATION ORDERS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 05.2 E...120 KT... CAT 4 13/0900H... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT... CAT 5 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT 16/0300H... 13.8 S 01.4 W...105 KT... CAT 3 17/0300H... 11.0 S 05.2 W... 25 KT... EXTRATROPICAL/DISSIPATING INLAND REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 5.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT... FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT. FORECASTER LAVAL
Advisory 11
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011...CORRECTED LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 CORRECTED TO UPDATE TS WARN/WATCH FOR PRUBDABLIA REGION GRIEL CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN... AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 325 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORICA FAR SOUTH OF PRUBDABLIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST... NORTHWARD TO THE POINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH. AT 9 AM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01 HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 450 KM... 280 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 255 KM... 160 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR EVACUATION ORDERS. DISCUSSION... GRIEL HAS BECOME THE STRONGEST HURRICANE SO FAR THIS YEAR... SURPASSING DEADLY HURRICANE YURI. NO VISIBLE SIGNS THAT THIS STRENGTHENING TREND WILL BUCKLE... AND SO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. INITIAL MOTION IS ALMOST DUE WEST... 278/12. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... GRIEL WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT... WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 12 PM HPT. FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
Advisory 11A
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 011A... INTERMEDIATE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 10 AM PAX... 12 PM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 GRIEL STALLS... BUT THIS IS LIKELY TEMPORARY... AT 12 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 325 KM AS WELL AS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CAPE OF ANIMUS ANI-01 IN THE SANXAY STRAIT. AT 12 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORICA FAR SOUTH OF PRUBDABLIA AND THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. AT 12 PM HPT TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COAST... NORTHWARD TO THE POINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... AS WELL AS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01. AT 12 PM HPT HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF VEN-01. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. AT 12 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 2000 KM... 1250 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 230 KM/H... 145 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H OR 15 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 HPA/MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 480 KM... 300 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 KM... 180 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE ADVISORY/ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE UNV SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL... PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL BULLETINS FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS OR EVACUATION ORDERS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/1200H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 04.6 E...125 KT... CAT 4 13/1500H... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT 14/0900H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/2100H... 13.9 S 01.4 E...155 KT 15/0900H... 13.9 S 00.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 16/0900H... 13.7 S 02.0 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 17/0900H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA REPEATING THE 12 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 4.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 230 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 24 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
Advisory 12
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 012 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 GRIEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... NOW A VERY DANGEROUS HIGH-END CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE... NEW RECORD MINIMUM PRESSURE IN THE REGION... AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR ANIMUS ANI-01 HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. AT 3 PM HPT THE HURRICANE WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SOUTHWEST COAST OF VENERATIO VEN-01 HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... WHILE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE OF MONTAURA... WHILE A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SAME STRETCH OF COASTLINE. AT 3 PM HPT A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA NEAR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. AT 3 PM HPT THE GOVERNMENT OF VASSFFORCIA HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR CIUDAD ESTADO DE PUERTO NUEVO AND THE ADJACENT COASTLINE TO A HURRICANE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WATCHES MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 3.9 EAST... OR ABOUT 1870 KM... 1170 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 240 KM/H... 150 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING INTO A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H OR 14 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 928 HPA/MBAR. AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS WILL BE KNOWN BY THE 3 AM ADVISORY. GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... THE CAPES OF IBPORTIA AND MONTAURA MAY FEEL TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.9 E...130 KT... CAT 4 13/2100H... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.8 E...140 KT... CAT 5 14/1500H... 13.8 S 01.8 E...150 KT 15/0300H... 13.9 S 01.0 E...145 KT 15/1500H... 13.9 S 00.3 W...120 KT... CAT 4 16/1500H... 13.6 S 02.5 W... 85 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 17/1500H...DISSIPATED OVER WATER NORTH OF VASSFORCIA LA SERENÍSIMA REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 240 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 928 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 22 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 13
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 013 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 8 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 13 2145 GRIEL ALMOST A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... AT 9 PM HPT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING/HURRICANE WATCHES FOR SOUTHERN MONTAURA/NORTHERN IBPORTIA HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. AT 9 PM HPT ALL VENERATIO WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... AFTER CONFIRMATION THAT ALL SCIENTISTS/BACKPACKERS EVACUATED. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. AT 9 PM HPT A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO ... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. GRIEL HAS SPED UP A BIT MORE... AND MAY MAKE LANDFALL SOONER THAN EXPECTED. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS ACCORDINGLY BEEN ADJUSTED. NO CHANGES TO FORECAST INTENSITY HAVE BEEN MADE... FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 3.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1775 KM... 1110 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H OR 23 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 914 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM. DETAILS WILL BE KNOWN BY THE 3 AM ADVISORY. GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 KM... 325 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 330 KM... 205 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 13/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 03.4 E...135 KT... CAT 4 14/0300H... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5 14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.3 E...145 KT 14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.9 W...155 KT 15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...110 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL 15/2100H... 13.1 S 03.7 W... 45 KT... INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL 16/0300H...ABSORBED REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 3.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 914 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 36 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 14
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 014 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 AFLE AIRCRAFT FINDS CENTRE OF GRIEL TO THE LEFT/WEST OF EXPECTED POSITION... A DROPSONDE MEASURED 140-KNOT WINDS AND THIS MAY NOT EVEN BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THIS MEASUREMENT WAS NOT TAKEN FROM THE CENTRE... IN SUMMARY... GRIEL IS CLOSER TO VASSFFORCIA THAN THOUGHT... AND IS NOW A VERY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE... THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HAS HAD TO WARN ON SINCE HURRICANE SANDRA IN 2139... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN MONTAURA COAST... CIUDAD ESTADIO DE PUERTO NUEVO ... AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN IBPORTIA COAST NEAR THE CAPE. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE SPED UP. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. WITH THE FINDINGS OF THE AFLE AIRCRAFT... THIS HAS GOTTEN MORE COMPLICATED. AS WITH ANY LARGE SYSTEM... EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY WHEN THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED THE HIGHER ECHLEONS OF THE INTENSITY SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KNOTS... CATEGORY 5... BASED ON THE DROPSONDE... WHICH ALSO MEASURED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 907 HPA. ASSUMING THAT THIS DROPSONDE DID NOT CAPTURE THE FULL STRENGTH... IT WAS NOT TAKEN FROM THE CENTRE... THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 903 HPA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO COMPLICATED DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF GRIEL. SINCE THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTRE TO THE WEST OF WHAT WAS EXPECTED... I WILL BE GOING WITH A TENTATIVE 285/17... WEST AT 17 KNOTS. GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. ALREADY 30 INDIRECT DEATHS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM GRIEL DUE TO EVACUATIONS. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 SOUTH LONGITUDE 2.3 EAST... OR ABOUT 1475 KM... 920 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 260 KM/H... 160 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 31 KM/H OR 20 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 903 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 36 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE (AFLE) RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THIS SYSTEM. MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING A POSSIBLE INTENSITY OR LOCATION CHANGE... COULD BE MADE KNOWN IN A SPECIAL UPDATE... OR BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. GRIEL IS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 370 KM... 230 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.8 S 02.3 E...140 KT... CAT 5 14/0900H... 13.8 S 01.5 E...145 KT 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...150 KT 15/0300H... 13.6 S 01.6 W...135 KT 15/1500H... 13.4 S 00.3 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 16/0300H...ABSORBED REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 13.8 SOUTH 2.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 260 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 903 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 31 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT... WITH AN ADVISORY UPDATE IF NECESSARY BEFORE THEN. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 15
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 015 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 8 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 MORE INFORMATION COMING IN FROM AFLE AIRCRAFT... GRIEL'S NEW MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE CRACKS THE 900 HPA LEVEL... GRIEL NOW STRONGER THAN EVER BEFORE... ALTHOUGH A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON... GRIEL IS EVEN FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF MONTAURA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE EDGE OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF VASSFFORCIA FROM PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE CAPE OF IBPORTIA. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO LIMIT DAMAGE AND LOSS OF LIFE SHOULD BE COMPLETE. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS DIFFICULT TO JUDGE WITH THE RELOCATION OF GRIEL'S CENTRE. I AM GOING WITH TENTATIVELY 290/22... WEST-NORTHWEST AT 22 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... I HAVE HAD TO UPGRADE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR PRUBDABLIA TO HURRICANE WARNINGS. THIS MAY MEAN THAT EMERGENCY EVACUATIONS MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PRUBDABLIA ... IT IS LIKELY THE CITY WILL GET THE WINDS OF A CAT 2 HURRICANE. GRIEL IS A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH THE POWER TO KILL. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL START TO LASH THE WARNING AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 SOUTH LONGITUDE 1.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1160 KM... 725 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. I AM HOPING THAT THIS HURRICANE CHANGES TRACK AND HEADS BACK SOUTH TOWARDS THE NOW-FULLY-EVACUATED PUERTO NUEVO... RATHER THAN TARGET A NON-EVACUATED AREA DUE TO THE DIFFICULTIES IN FORECASTING THIS STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 270 KM/H... 170 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... BUT SOME WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 41 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 899 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED... NOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 370 KM... 230 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.7 S 01.5 E...145 KT... CAT 5 14/1500H... 13.8 S 00.5 E...140 KT 14/2100H... 13.7 S 00.5 W...130 KT 15/0900H... 13.6 S 02.5 W...105 KT... CAT 3 NEAR LANDFALL 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS VERY VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST. REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 13.7 SOUTH 1.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 270 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 899 HPA... MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 41 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTERS HUNTER/JOHNS
Advisory 16
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 016 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 2 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 GRIEL WEAKENS IN COOLER WATERS... ALTHOUGH 26C WATERS ARE STILL MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR SUSTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONES. THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN IBPORTIA NEAR THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE HURRICANE WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LETÍA/MONTAURA COAST IN THE SANXAY STRAIT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA IN THE BAY OF PUERTO NUEVO... MEANING THE CITY-STATE AS WELL AS COASTLINE UP TO EITHER END OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MEAN THAT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL HAS WEAKENED AND HAS NOW TAKEN ON A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK IN RESPONSE TO ITS WEAKENING. THIS KIND OF MOTION IRREGULARITIES ARE NOT UNCOMMON IN LARGE SYSTEMS FLUCTUATING IN INTENSITY... BUT AS GRIEL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MOTION IS EXPECTED. GRIEL'S TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY BEING REPORTED IN PRUBDABLIA. AT 3 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 SOUTH LONGITUDE 0.6 EAST... OR ABOUT 840 KM... 525 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 250 KM/H... 155 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST- SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 907 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. GRIEL REMAINS A LARGE SYSTEM... TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 610 KM... 380 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 13.9 S 00.6 E...135 KT 14/2100H... 14.0 S 00.4 W...120 KT 15/0300H... 14.0 S 01.2 W...110 KT 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 13.9 SOUTH 0.6 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 250 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 907 HPA... MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AT 39 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 17
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 017 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN ISSUED BY THE MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA 7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 6 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145 GRIEL WEAKENS FURTHER... NOW EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO AT LANDFALL... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 130 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IBPORTIAN COAST ALONG THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS STILL LASHING PRUBDABLIA... HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS WILL SOON AFFECT THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. AT 9 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 SOUTH LONGITUDE 0.4 WEST... OR ABOUT 595 KM... 375 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 220 KM/H... 140 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 39 KM/H OR 24 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 921 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 18 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 570 KM... 355 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 14/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 14.1 S 00.4 W...120 KT... CAT 4 15/0300H... 14.2 S 01.3 W...105 KT... CAT 3 15/0900H... 14.2 S 02.3 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 14.1 SOUTH 0.4 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 220 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 921 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 39 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER RHYSNOLAN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HQ FOLENISA FOR THE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
Advisory 18
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 018 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 12 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145 GRIEL NOW A CATEGORY THREE... LANDFALL WITHIN NINE HOURS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 130 KM. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FURTHER SOUTH TO THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE IBPORTIAN COAST ALONG THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS IS NOW REPORTING HURRICANE-FORCE SUSTAINED WINDS. AT 3 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 SOUTH LONGITUDE 1.3 WEST... OR ABOUT 420 KM... 265 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 195 KM/H... 120 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 39 KM/H OR 24 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 9 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 480 KM... 300 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 15/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 14.2 S 01.3 W...105 KT... CAT 3 15/0900H... 14.1 S 02.3 W... 95 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 14.2 SOUTH 1.3 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 195 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 39 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT... FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT TIME OF LANDFALL. FORECASTER HUNTER
Advisory 19
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) ADVISORY 019 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 6 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145 GRIEL VERY CLOSE TO LANDFALL... NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PRUBDABLIA SOUTHWARD FOR 130 KM... AS WELL AS FOR THE IBPORTIAN COAST ALONG THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS...NORTHWARD TO 13 SOUTH 1.8 WEST. LANDFALL IN ABOUT TWO OR THREE HOURS... AT 9 AM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 SOUTH LONGITUDE 2.3 WEST... OR ABOUT 195 KM... 120 MILES EAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 165 KM/H... 105 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 42 KM/H OR 26 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 480 KM... 300 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 280 KM... 175 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 12 INCHES... 305 MM... ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA NEAR THE COAST. AS A NEW WEATHER SYSTEM IS PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FROM DASHAKE IT SHOULD CAUSE GRIEL TO TAKE A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY TURN BEFORE ABSORBING IT. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS... ESPECIALLY THE RIVER ZULFÍA... SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 15/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 14.1 S 02.3 W... 90 KT... CAT 2 NEAR LANDFALL 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 14.1 SOUTH 2.3 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 165 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 HPA... MOVING WEST AT 42 KM/H. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT TIME OF LANDFALL... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTERS JONHSON/LAVAL
Advisory 19A
4510 TCWC HPCOR HURRICANE GRIEL (4510) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 019A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 10:30 AM PAX... 12:30 PM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145 GRIEL MAKES LANDFALL... REPORT OF EYE CROSSING COAST ABOUT 100 KM NE OF PUERTO NUEVO AT ABOUT 12:20 PM HPT. GRIEL HAS WEAKENED INTO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AND IS STARTING TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY-STATE OF PUERTO NUEVO AND THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE BAY OF PAVELLÓS NORTHWARD TO 13 SOUTH 1.8 WEST. THIS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. AT 12:30 PM HPT HURRICANE GRIEL WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 SOUTH LONGITUDE 3.0 WEST... OR ABOUT 80 KM... 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF PUERTO NUEVO VASSFFORCIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 140 KM/H... 85 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRIEL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE... BUT IS BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 64 KM/H OR 40 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 HECTOPASCALS OR MBAR. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM... 220 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CENTRE... WHILE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS CURRENTLY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 12 INCHES... 305 MM... ARE POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA NEAR THE COAST. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS... ESPECIALLY THE RIVER ZULFÍA... SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 15/1230H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 14.2 S 03.0 W... 75 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 15/1500H... 13.5 S 03.6 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 12:30 PM HPT POSITION... 14.2 SOUTH 3.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 140 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 64 KM/H. THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT. FORECASTER JOHNSON
Advisory 20
4510 TCWC HPCOR TROPICAL STORM GRIEL (4510) FINAL ADVISORY 020 LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN 1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 12 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145 GRIEL BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL... ALL REMAINING WARNINGS AND WATCHES DISCONTINUED. AT 3 PM HPT... THE EXTRATROPICAL REMNANTS OF FORMER HURRICANE GRIEL WERE CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 12.0 SOUTH LONGITUDE 4.0 WEST... OR ABOUT 450 KM... 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF VASSFFORCIA CITY, VASSFFORCIA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM IS 970 HPA... AND IT HAS SUSTAINED GALES OF UP TO 110 KM/H... 65 MPH. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H... 50 MPH. 34-KNOT... OR STORM-FORCE... WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 350 KM... 220 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 4 INCHES... 100 MM... ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER INLAND VASSFFORCIA. CITIES AND TOWNS NEAR RIVERS SHOULD BE PREPARED IN CASE OF RIVERS FLOODING ITS BANKS. GRIEL SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE LARGER FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. OFFICIAL FORECAST INITIAL TIME IS 15/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL... 12.0 S 4.0 W... 55 KT...INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED 15/2100H...ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 12.0 SOUTH 4.0 WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 81 KM/H. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND THE NEW WEATHER FRONT PLEASE REFER TO LOCAL INFORMATION OR THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE'S BULLETINS. FORECASTER HUNTER
