TD11 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Eleven

Advisory 1

4511 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN (4511) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
8 PM PAX... 10 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 10 2145

WHILE HDCW AND UHWF BOTH STILL CLASSIFY THIS SYSTEM... FORMERLY 89NE.INVEST
... WITH T-NUMBERS OF 1.5... RECENT SHIP REPORTS FROM THE SSC ARMADON AND
A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND NAVY SHIP THE NLES RUSSELL OF 32 KNOT SUSTAINED WINDS
WITHIN A 120-KM RADIUS OF THE STORM JUSTIFY INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION ELEVEN AT 30 KNOTS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SEEM TO SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING... ALTHOUGH
THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODEL RUNS SEEM TO SUGGEST QUICK STRENGTHENING THEN
GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE STORM MAKES A LOOP AND ENDS UP RIGHT BACK WHERE IT
IS NOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.

AT 10 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS CENTRED NEAR 36.5N 23.6E...
OR ABOUT 695 KM... 435 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 40 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. TD-ELEVEN IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT 17 KM/H
BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHEASTERLY TURN.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE AFLE... WHICH HAS THIS
SYSTEM MAKING A LOOP BEFORE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 10/2200H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 36.5 N 23.6 E... 30 KT
11/0300H... 37.3 N 23.9 E... 40 KT
11/0900H... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT
11/2100H... 38.2 N 24.5 E... 45 KT
12/0900H... 37.5 N 25.0 E... 40 KT
12/2100H... 36.9 N 24.4 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
13/2100H... 35.8 N 23.1 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
14/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... 36.5N 23.6E ABOUT 700 KM SW OF VICTORY
UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA. TD-ELEVEN MOVING NORTH AT 17 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Tropical Storm Nitschke

Advisory 2

4511 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE (4511) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 4 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

RECON FLIGHT REPORTED 37 KT SUSTAINED WINDS. RECENTLY-UPPED T-NUMBERS OF
2.5 FROM BOTH HDCW AND UHWF... PLUS GENERAL APPEARANCE OF SYSTEM... INITIAL
ADVISORY IS UPPED AND SET... PERHAPS A BIT STRONGLY... AT 40 KT.

MOST COMPUTER MODELS STILL TAKE NITSCHKE INTO A LOOP. ALL SEVEN OF THEM
ALSO MAKE IT EXTRATROPICAL AND FOUR SUGGEST IT BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE
FUTURE... THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY
TENTATIVE... BUT WILL ASSUME EXTRATROPICALITY AT THE EARLIEST SUGGESTED
BY THE AFLE... 24 HOURS.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE WAS CENTRED NEAR 37.3N 23.9E...
OR ABOUT 550 KM... 345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. NITSCHKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 26 KM/H.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 37.3 N 23.9 E... 40 KT
11/0900H... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT
11/1500H... 38.0 N 24.3 E... 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12/0300H... 37.7 N 24.6 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12/1500H... 37.2 N 24.4 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
12/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 3

4511 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE (4511) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HQ OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PROGNOSTIC REASONING. A FEW UPPER-LEVEL LOWS
CAUSING COMPUTER MODELS TO BRING NITSCHKE INTO A LOOP. NITSCHKE'S
SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS DETERIORATED... AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KT - WHICH MAY BE TOO HIGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR EXTRATROPICALITY WITHIN 12-18 HOURS.

AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM NITSCHKE WAS CENTRED NEAR 37.8N 24.1E...
OR ABOUT 485 KM... 300 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 75 KM/H... 45 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA. NITSCHKE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 31 KM/H.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST...
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H
INITIAL FORECAST TIME IS 11/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 37.8 N 24.1 E... 40 KT
11/1500H... 38.0 N 24.3 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
12/0300H... 37.7 N 24.6 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
12/0900H... 37.5 N 24.8 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
12/2100H... ABSORBED BY LARGER SYSTEM

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER