TD12 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Twelve

Advisory 1

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL DESIGNATED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE
DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

TD-TWELVE IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH LAND.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.0N 38.0E...
ABOUT 95 KM... 60 MILES... NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD ON LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL
OF EAST KOMPA RU. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KM/H... GUSTING TO 40 KT...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H
... 7 MPH. BECAUSE OF ITS GUSTS TO ABOVE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTH...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE BEING PUT INTO PLACE.

TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... AS WELL AS THE WESTERN COAST OF FIDELIS FROM NEW PIEZAS
EAST KOMPA RU NORTHWARD TO HARBOUR CITY KOMPA RU. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
MEAN THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...
IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.

MODEL FORECASTS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT - THE UHWF EVEN BRINGS TD-TWELVE
SOUTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHENS IT INTO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 106 HOURS. THIS
SOLUTION WAS DISREGARDED IN THE FORECAST... WHICH RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
HDCW EXTP. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR TD-TWELVE MAY INFLUENCE THE SYSTEM WITH
SHEAR... AND SO TD-TWELVE MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH
INITIAL TIME 11/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 23.0 N 38.0 E... 30 KT
11/0900H... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 30 KT
11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION
12/0300H... 24.4 N 39.3 E... 25 KT...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND
12/1500H...INLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM LOCATION... 23.0N 38.0E 95 KM NORTHWEST OF LA CIUDAD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 HPA. MOVEMENT NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 2

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

SYSTEM NEAR LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL WEAKENS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...
BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... PARQUE
DE CORRACION... WESTERN EAST KOMPA RU... AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN AREAS
OF KOMPA RU OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS.

TD-TWELVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER DUE TO LAND INTERACTION.

ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

BASED ON A WEAKENING SATELLITE PRESENTATION... AND LOW T-NUMBERS...
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT. I WILL RESIST THE URGE TO END THE
STORM'S LIFE DUE TO POSSIBLE BURSTS OF NEW CONVECTION.

AT 9 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS CENTRED NEAR 23.1N 38.2E...
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE WESTERNMOST ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL OF EAST KOMPA RU.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... GUSTING
TO 30 KT... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. TD-TWELVE IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

WITH THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS... STRENGTHENING IS NOT EXPECTED... AND
TD-TWELVE MAY NOT LAST AS LONG AS THE FORECAST ASSUMES.

OFFICIAL EXTENDED FORECAST
1 KT IS 1.852 KM/H OR 1.15 MPH
INITIAL TIME 11/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 23.1 N 38.2 E... 25 KT
11/1500H... 23.6 N 38.6 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND PARQUE DE CORRACION
12/0300H...INLAND EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM LOCATION... 23.1N 38.2E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25
KT... WITH HIGHER GUSTS... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. MOVEMENT
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 3

4512 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE (4512) FINAL ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

A COUPLE OF RECENT QUIKSCAT PASSES FAILED TO DETERMINE THE CENTRE OF
CIRCULATION. HDCW AND UHWF HAVE BOTH STOPPED CLASSIFYING TD-TWELVE...
AND THE SATELLITE IMAGE OF IT SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSEQUENTLY... THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY RELEASED BY THE MSHPC
ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL
CONTINUE TO ISSUE ADVISORIES AS LONG AS TD-TWELVE REMAINS A FLOOD OR
TORNADO THREAT.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 23.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.6 EAST... INLAND DISSIPATING
OVER THE PARQUE DE CORRACION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H...
30 MPH... MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

THIS IS THE FINAL MSHPC PACKAGE ON THIS SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR REGENERATION. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT
ADVISORY AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

HWS Advisory 1

TC12 HWSB HWULC
ADVISORY 1 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 11 2145

AT 9 PM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 24.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 38.9 EAST... OVER WATER BETWEEN
THE PARQUE DE CORRACION AND THE EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND. REGENERATION IS
NOT EXPECTED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH.

FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EAST KOMPA RU AND SOUTHWESTERN
KOMPA RU. ISOLATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE... RAINFALL OF
2-5 INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... AS WELL AS THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... COULD CONTINUE TO SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

OTHERWISE... NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

NEXT HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER

HWS Advisory 2

TC12 HWSB HWULC
ADVISORY 2 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

AT 3 AM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.3 EAST... INLAND IN THE
EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH
... STILL WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 HPA. THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11
KM/H ... 7 MPH.

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EAST KOMPA RU AND SOUTHWESTERN
KOMPA RU. ISOLATED RAINFALL OF UP TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE... RAINFALL OF
2-5 INCHES SHOULD BE EXPECTED. LAS ISLAS DE EQUITORIAL... AS WELL AS THE
PARQUE DE CORRACION... COULD CONTINUE TO SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE PARQUE DE CORRACION... 
ACCUMULATED RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS IN LOW-LYING AREAS.

OTHERWISE... NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

NEXT HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER KRUGER

HWS Advisory 3

TC12 HWSB HWULC
ADVISORY 3 ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE
THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE/LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MSHPC
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU 
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 12 2145

AT 9 AM HPT... THE REMNANT LOW CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS
CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 39.5 EAST... INLAND IN THE
EAST KOMPA RU MAINLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KM/H... 25 MPH
... WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. THE
REMNANT LOW IS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 KM/H ... 7 MPH... AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

FLOOD WATCHES PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN EAST KOMPA RU AND
SOUTHWESTERN KOMPA RU HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND CORRACION... THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS TO 6 INCHES.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR THE PARQUE DE CORRACION
HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED.

OTHERWISE... NO WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT.

NEXT HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE ADVISORY AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTERS KRUGER/RINDLI