TD15 (2145)/Past

MSHPC Tropical Storm Amy

Advisory 1

4515 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145

HOO BOY... 13TH NAMED STORM OF YEAR FORMS... MEANING THAT
WE HAVE NOW RUN OUT OF NAMES ON THE NORMAL NAME LIST AND
HAVE REVERTED TO THE OLD NAME LIST...

THE FOLLOWING NAMES ON THE NAME LIST...
BRENT... CASSANDRA (KE-SAND-DRA)... DOUGLAS... EILEEN
(AI-LIN)... FRANK... GRACE... HENRY... IOLA (EE-YO-LA)

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH MOVED OFF LOX LAND ISLAND
YESTERDAY HAS GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CONSIDERED
TROPICAL... AND SINCE IT WAS ALREADY A GALE SYSTEM IT BECOMES
A TROPICAL STORM... THE 14TH OF THE SEASON... NAMED AMY.

INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
THREE AGENCIES ARE 2.5/2.5/2.0... SO WE'LL SET THE ADVISORY
INTENSITY AT 35 KT.

AMY IS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH SSTS AND LOW WIND SHEAR...
NEAR 30 DEG C AND 5-10 KT SHEAR... SO SOME DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE A LARGE FRONT CLOSES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE GULP MOUNTAINS AND ABSORBS AMY OR MAKES IT EXTRATROPICAL.

THE QUESTION HERE IS THE TRACK OF AMY... AND WHETHER IT WILL
MAKE TROPICAL LANDFALL ON THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. AFLE
MODEL TAKES IT NNE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE TURNING
IT NORTH AND THEN NNW... MAKING LANDFALL NEAR WHERE TROPICAL
STORM OREN DID EARLIER THIS SEASON. THE UHWF TAKES IT NNE...
THEN MAKES A HARD NORTHEAST TURN... MAKING LANDFALL ON THE TIP
OF THE PENINSULA NEAR THE NEW YAVIN DEFENSE POST. HDCW EXTRAPOLATED
... WHICH HAS BEEN DISREGARDED FOR THIS ADVISORY... TAKES IT
EAST THEN EAST-NORTHEAST... IN A SCARILY-SIMILAR TRACK TO WHAT
KILLER HURRICANE YURI DID EARLIER THIS SEASON.

AS STORM-FORCE WINDS SHOULD STILL BE BUFFERING THE NORTHEASTERN
EDGE OF LOX LAND ISLAND... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL AND SURROUNDING COAST... INCLUDING
THE OFFSHORE WATERWAY CIRCUIT.

SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS STORM IS SO DIFFICULT TO PREDICT...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN
PENINSULA.

AS FOR INITIAL MOTION... CONSERVATIVELY GOING WITH AN 018/9... OR
NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.3 EAST... OR OVER WATER JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE CITY OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1002 HPA... TROPICAL
STORM AMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H... 10 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM... 115 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 14/0900H.
 INITIAL... 45.2 N 25.3 E... 35 KT
14/1500H... 45.5 N 25.5 E... 35 KT
14/2100H... 45.8 N 25.8 E... 40 KT 
15/0900H... 46.5 N 26.7 E... 45 KT 
15/2100H... 46.9 N 27.6 E... 50 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 
16/0900H... 47.4 N 28.6 E... 40 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
16/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 45.2 NORTH 25.3 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1002 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTERS JARVINEN/RINDLI

Advisory 2

4515 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 3:30 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145

CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY SCATTERED... BUT
IS STRONG, WITH CLOUD TOPS TO ALMOST -60 DEG C. SATELLITE
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO BE 2.5/2.5/2.0... SO INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT
FOR THE COAST OF LOX LAND ISLAND HAS BEEN DISCONINUTED.

AMY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH SSTS AND LOW WIND
SHEAR... NEAR 30 DEG C AND 5-10 KT SHEAR... BUT A LARGE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE GULP
MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IMPINGE ON THE TROPICALITY
OF AMY.

THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS HAS GOTTEN BETTER... WITH AFLE
HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST IN THE LONG-RUN... AND THE HDCW MOVING
SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THE MSHPC FORECAST TRACK WILL BE SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THE AFLE... AND WEST OF THE UHWF... MAKING LANDFALL
JUST AS AMY IS ABOUT TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL NEAR THE TIP
OF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.

INITIAL MOTION IS 023/12.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 45.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 290 KM... 
180 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL, LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
1001 HPA... TROPICAL STORM AMY IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 21 KM/H... 13 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES
... FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 14/1500H
 INITIAL... 45.5 N 25.5 E... 35 KT
14/2100H... 45.8 N 25.8 E... 40 KT 
15/0300H... 46.2 N 26.2 E... 40 KT 
15/1500H... 46.7 N 27.1 E... 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 
16/0300H... 47.0 N 28.0 E... 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL INLAND/BECOMING ABSORBED 
16/1500H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 45.5 NORTH 25.5 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1001 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 21 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 3

4515 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 9:30 PM LOCAL TIME JUN 14 2145

DATA T-NUMBERS STILL DO NOT JUSTIFY THE UPGRADING OF
INTENSITY OF AMY... AT 2.5 FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES.
ON RECENT INFRARED IMAGERY... CONVECTION TOPS WERE
AS COLD AS MAYBE -65 DEG C... WHILE VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTRE OF AMY IS PARTIALLY
EXPOSED ON THE SOUTHEAST.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING NOW SUPERSEDES THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN
GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE SOUTHERN GULP
MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.

AMY REMAINS IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY HIGH SSTS AND LOW
WIND SHEAR... SO UNSURE WHY IT HASN'T STRENGTHENED...
REGARDLESS... AS PER LAST TIME... SLOW STRENGTHENING
IS STILL EXPECTED.

CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT
LANDFALL STILL EXPECTED ON THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA.

INITIAL MOTION 025/10.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.9 NORTH LONGITUDE 25.7 EAST...
OR ABOUT 385 KM... 240 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL
LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE
ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 998 HPA... AMY IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 19 KM/H... 12 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM...
100 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 14/2100H
 INITIAL... 45.9 N 25.7 E... 35 KT 
15/0300H... 46.3 N 26.0 E... 40 KT
15/0900H... 47.0 N 26.3 E... 40 KT 
15/2100H... 47.5 N 27.1 E... 45 KT...INLAND/BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 
16/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 45.9 NORTH 25.7 EAST.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST
AT 19 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON AMY WILL BE ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER CALTS

Advisory 4

4515 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL STORM AMY (4515) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUN 15 2145

ONCE AGAIN... AMY HAS NOT SHOWN SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING. I AM
DUMBFOUNDED AS TO WHY THIS IS SO... AMY IS NOT A PARTICULARLY
LARGE SYSTEM... AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE...

REGARDLESS... DO NOT EXPECT AMY TO WEAKEN. THEREFORE A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF THE
SOUTHERN GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE EASTERN SIDE. A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS... INCLUDING
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS... ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA
IN 24-36 HOURS. PORTIONS OF THIS WATCH MAY BE UPGRADED TO
A WARNING LATER TODAY... WHILE THE REST OF IT MAY BE CANCELLED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SAME REASONING... LARGER FRONT PUSHING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST... AND THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
ABSORB AN EXTRATROPICAL AMY. BASED ON RECENT SATELLITE LOOPS...
INITIAL MOTION IS 020/12. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM AMY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 46.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 26.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 515 KM...
325 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL... LOX LAND ISLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 HPA... AMY IS
MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H... 14 MPH.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 KM... 100 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST... ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME... 15/0300H
 INITIAL... 46.2 N 26.0 E... 35 KT
15/0900H... 46.8 N 26.3 E... 35 KT 
15/1500H... 47.2 N 26.6 E... 40 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 
16/0300H... 48.0 N 27.5 E... 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL/BECOMING ABSORBED
16/0900H...ABSORBED BY LARGER FRONT

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 46.2 NORTH 26.0 EAST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H... HIGHER GUSTS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
997 HPA... MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 22 KM/H.

THE NEXT MSHPC ADVISORY ON AMY WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

LLIWO TS Delta.04

Advisory 1

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NO. 1 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

ADVISORY NR 1
TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 1002 HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 14/0930 LST
POSITION WITHIN 70 NM LAT +45.2 LON +25.3
NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 24E, 47.5N 26E, 46N 27E, 45N 26E, 45N 25E
FOR COAST 30 KM EITHER SIDE OF SCHIMPOL
MAX WINDS 35 KT NEAR CENTRE
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 16 KM/H

NEW TROPICAL STORM IN TCWC LLIWO WATERS IS NAMED DELTA. THIS IS THE
4TH STORM IN LLI WATERS THIS SEASON SINCE TCWC LLIWO RECEIVED
JURISDICTION FOR LOX LAND ISLAND WATERS.

DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND RESIDENTS ARE ADVISED NOT TO VENTURE
OUTSIDE. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH STRONG SURF PREVAIL.

NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 1530 LST. FORECAST ANALYSIS NOT BEING ISSUED
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS.

ISSUED BY NITKAN

Advisory 2/Forecast 1

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NR 2 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

ADVISORY NR 2
TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 999 HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 14/1530 LST
POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +45.4 LON +25.5
290 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 24E, 47.5N 26E, 46N 27E, 45N 26E, 45N 25E
MAX WINDS 35 KT NEAR CENTRE
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 21 KM/H

DELTA HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE ISLAND BUT HEAVY SURF PREVAILS. RESIDENTS
ARE ADVISED TO AVOID THE SEA.

NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 2130 LST. 

ISSUED BY NITKAN

DF04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NR 1 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES FORECASTS. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

TROPICAL STORM DELTA.04 (AMY 4515) 999 HPA AT 14/1530
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 14/2130 45.8 NORTH 25.7 EAST WITHIN 75 NM FAIR
INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 997 HPA
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/0330 46.1 NORTH 26.1 EAST WITHIN 100 NM FAIR
INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 995 HPA

END PRODUCT//
REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

NEXT FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 0330 LST.

ISSUED BY NITKAN

Advisory 3

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NR 3 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

ADVISORY NR 3
TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 996 HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 14/2130 LST
POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +45.8 LON +25.6
380 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 25E, 47.5N 26E, 46N 27E, 45N 26E, 45N 25E
MAX WINDS 40 KT NEAR CENTRE
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 18 KM/H

HIGH SURF CONTINUES TO LASH THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE ISLAND.

NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 0330 LST. 

ISSUED BY GORDON

Advisory 4/Forecast 2

DA04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
ADVISORY NR 4 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES ADVISORIES. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

ADVISORY NR 4
TROPICAL STORM DELTA (AMY 4515) 995 HPA
INITIAL ANALYSIS AT 15/0330 LST
POSITION WITHIN 45 NM LAT +46.2 LON +25.9
520 KM NORTHEAST OF SCHIMPOL LLI
TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SEAS BOUNDED BY 45N 25E, 47.5N 26E, 47N 28E
MAX WINDS 40 KT NEAR CENTRE
MOVEMENT NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 20 KM/H

NO LONGER A THREAT TO THE ISLAND. SMALL CRAFT OFFSHORE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO BE PREPARED TO ROUGH SEAS.

NEXT ANALYSIS ADVISORY AT 0930 LST. 

ISSUED BY GORDON 

DF04 TCWC LLIWO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY
FORECAST NR 2 ON SYSTEM
SYSTEM IS TROPICAL STORM DELTA
MSHPC DESIGNATION TROPICAL STORM AMY

THIS IS AN OPERATIONAL TEST OF POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE WAY TCWC LLIWO
ISSUES FORECASTS. THIS TEST WILL RUN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOX
GULF SEASON.

TROPICAL STORM DELTA.04 (AMY 4515) 995 HPA AT 15/0330
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/0930 46.7 NORTH 26.3 EAST WITHIN 75 NM FAIR
INTENSITY 40 KNOTS 993 HPA
FORECAST ANALYSIS AT 15/1530 47.3 NORTH 26.7 EAST WITHIN 100 NM FAIR
INLAND OUTSIDE THE LLIWO AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

END PRODUCT//
REFER TO RSMC MSHPC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

THIS IS THE FINAL FORECAST ANALYSIS ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY TCWC LLIWO.
THIS PRODUCT WILL BE RESUMED SHOULD THE SYSTEM NOT YET BE OUTSIDE OUR
AOR IN 12 HOURS.

ISSUED BY GORDON