TD16 (2145)

4516 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) FINAL ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC WARNING SUB-BUREAU CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
7 AM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 9 AM HPT JUL 23 2145

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT SENT TO CHECK THE DEPRESSION COULD NOT
FIND EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION CENTRE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PUFFS OF DISORGANISED CONVECTION. 
THUS... THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL WAVE AND
ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. REGENERATION OF THE WAVE IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT PROVIDED BY A TUTT TO THE
NORTHWEST. COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CERTAINLY WILL NOT HELP
EITHER. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BRING SHORT ORDER
TO WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE SYSTEM IN 12 HOURS OR SO. 

DESPITE NO LONGER HAVING A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE... THE WAVE 
MAY GENERATE INTERMITTENT DISORGANISED CONVECTION ALONG THE WAVE 
AXIS UNTIL IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE ITCZ. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAY 
OCCUR WITHIN CONVECTIVE CELLS.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT FOUNDER'S
SEA. WINDS OF 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.
THE WAVE IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 20 KM/H... 13 MPH.

REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED... AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE 
ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ WITHIN 12 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 23/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL...DEGENERATED INTO OPEN WAVE WITH 25 KT WINDS

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... DEGENERATED INTO A TROPICAL WAVE 
OVER THE GREAT FOUNDER'S SEA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. 
MOVEMENT TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 20 KM/H... 13 MPH.

THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM.

FORECASTER STELIVA