TD16 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Sixteen

Advisory 1

4516 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) SPECIAL ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
3 PM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 5 PM HPT JUL 22 2145

AIRCRAFT RECON DETERMINES THAT SYSTEM WEST OF INEPTIA NEAR THE PAX
MERIDIAN... PREVIOUSLY 94 INVEST... IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY WEAK DATA T-NUMBERS THIS SYSTEM IS RECEIVING
FROM ALL THREE AGENCIES... AND A FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND REPORT OF JUST 31
KNOTS... THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SET AT 25 KT.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY ALMOST STATIONARY... MOVEMENT... IF ANY...
IS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHWEST. IN A FEW DAYS IT IS EXPECTED TO START
MOVING SOUTHWARD... AND THE ITCZ COULD ACTUALLY DISSIPATE OR ABSORB
THE SYSTEM BACK IN.

AT 5 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE
12.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.7 EAST... OR ABOUT 950 KM... 595 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM
ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 HPA OR MBAR
AND THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE SYSTEM IS NO THREAT TO LAND. WITH 28 DEGREES C WATER... STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 20-25 KT
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... AND AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE QUICKER SOUTHWARD
IT WILL EITHER BE SHEARED APART OR ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM... BEFORE SHEAR RIPS IT
APART.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 22/1700H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 12.4 N 0.7 E... 25 KT
22/2100H... 12.3 N 0.5 E... 25 KT
23/0300H... 12.0 N 0.4 E... 30 KT 
23/1500H... 11.4 N 0.7 E... 35 KT 
24/0300H... 10.7 N 1.2 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 5 PM POSITION... 12.4 NORTH 0.7 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 HPA. SYSTEM IS DRIFTING
SLOWLY SOUTHWEST.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 2

4516 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC HEADQUARTERS OREAN
7 PM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 9 PM HPT JUL 22 2145

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN HAS
DETERIORATED... AND RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED BACK A FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND OF 30 KT AND MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1011 HPA. THEREFORE...
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS UNCHANGED... 25 KT... AND FOR CONTINUITY'S
SAKE I WILL KEEP THE DEPRESSION ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
ADVISORY SHOULD IT FAIL TO GENERATE NEW CONVECTION.

THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR... ALTHOUGH
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
GIVEN THE WEAKENING STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE SOONER THAN THOUGHT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REFLECTS THIS AND DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM WITHOUT STRENGTHENING IT
MUCH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

AT 9 PM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE
12.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 1000 KM... 625 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO
THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1011 HPA OR MBAR... AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
AT 11 KM/H... 7 MPH.

SSTS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO SUSTAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE... NEAR 29 DEG C...
BUT THE PROXIMITY OF THE ITCZ TO THIS SYSTEM COULD MEAN THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS LITTLE TIME... IF ANY... TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE DISSIPATION.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 22/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 12.3 N 0.5 E... 25 KT
23/0300H... 12.0 N 0.4 E... 25 KT 
23/0900H... 11.5 N 0.4 E... 25 KT 
23/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 12.3 NORTH 0.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT NEAR 11 KM/H... 7 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CYCLONESVILLE
BUREAU AT 3 AM HPT... UNDER THE SAME REGIONAL HEADER 4516 TCWC HPCOR.

FORECASTER HUNTER

Advisory 3

4516 TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
MSHPC WARNING SUB-BUREAU CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
1 AM PAX... LOCAL TIME... 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145

DESPITE THE EVER-WEAKENING PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION... I
AM STILL NOT WILLING TO DECLARE THIS DEAD YET. A RECENT QUIKSCAT
PASS MISSED THE CYCLONE... SO IT IS HARD TO DETERMINE IF IT
STILL HAS A GOOD CIRCULATION CENTRE. GOING WITH CONTINUITY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN STAYS ALIVE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
SIX HOURS.

THE SSTS ARE GRADUALLY BEGINNING TO FALL... AND SHEAR IS BUILDING
UP UNDER AND AROUND THE CYCLONE. I CANNOT SEE HOW THIS COULD POSSIBLY
SURVIVE MUCH LONGER. THAT SAID... IT COULD ALREADY HAVE FAILED TO DO
SO. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM... AND
WILL REPORT BACK ON WHETHER A LLCC COULD BE DETECTED. A TUTT NEARBY
IS MOST DEFINITELY NOT HELPING. INDEED... THE SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE
MUCH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AT 3 AM HPT... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS CENTRED NEAR LATITUDE
12.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 0.4 EAST... OR ABOUT 1095 KM... 685 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF DANNSTADT, INEPTIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS RELATED TO
THIS SYSTEM ARE NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1013 HPA OR MBAR... AND THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR
20 KM/H... 13 MPH.

NO STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED... AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OR BE ABSORBED BY THE ITCZ WITHIN 18 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 23/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 12.0 N 0.4 E... 25 KT 
23/0900H... 11.5 N 0.4 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
23/1500H... 10.9 N 0.7 E... 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
23/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 12.0 NORTH 0.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1013 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
TO THE SOUTH AT NEAR 20 KM/H... 13 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY THE MSHPC AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL