TD17 (2145)/Past

Tropical Depression Seventeen

Advisory 1

4517 TCWC MSHPC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
CYCLONSVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 28 2145

SYSTEM THAT PREVIOUSLY CROSSED THE COAST BEFORE NUMBERED WARNINGS
COULD BE INITIATED NOW INDICATED TO BE CENTRED OFF THE COAST OF
POPULARFREEDOM... AND WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANISATION... WARNINGS ARE
INITIATED ON THE 17TH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON... AT 30 KT.

AS THIS SYSTEM IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT COULD STRENGTHEN VERY RAPIDLY
OVER 27-28 DEG C SSTS. LIKEWISE... HOWEVER... IT COULD WEAKEN VERY
QUICKLY INLAND AS WELL. THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS CYCLONE HAS NOT
BEEN EASY... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY STEERING MECHANISM AT
THIS POINT.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
BY QUIKSCAT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST...
OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 55 KM/H... 35 MPH...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS POSSIBILITY OF FASTER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1009 HPA OR MBAR. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.

TD-SEVENTEEN IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
- NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN DIFFICULT... BUT HAVE KEPT IT STATIONARY
FOR THE FIRST 6-12 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM...
8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH CITIES. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY.
IN THE LONG RUN... MODELS ARE DIVERGENT. SOME TAKE THIS NE-WARDS... BUT
MOST MAJOR ONES... INCLUDING THE UHWF AND AFLE... TAKE IT INLAND AS A 50-KT
TROPICAL STORM... AFTER SOME MEANDERING. ACCORDINGLY THAT IS REFLECTED...
HOWEVER... RE-EMERGENCE INTO WATER IS EXPECTED.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 28/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 30 KT
29/0300H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS POSSIBLE
29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT 
29/2100H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 55 KT 
30/0900H... 41.6 N 34.4 E... 65 KT 
30/2100H... 41.6 N 34.0 E... 50 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 
31/2100H... 42.3 N 38.0 E... 40 KT...NEAR LOCKE HARBOR
01/0900H...DISSIPATED INLAND

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/STELIVA

Tropical Cyclone Update

TCUP TCWC HPCWT CCB
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE
10 PM PAX JUL 28... 12 AM HPT... 2 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
CORRECTED FOR GRAMMAR 2 AM HPT

THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS BEING ISSUED AT THIS TIME TO UPDATE
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

AS OF 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM FOR THE COASTAL CITY OF
MAGNA CARTA... AND UP AND DOWN THE COAST 50 KM EITHER WAY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS FURTHER IN EFFECT NORTHWARDS TO...
AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY RELEASED BY HPCLC AND HPCWT AT
3 AM HPT.

FORECASTER FRABANK

Tropical Storm Brent

Advisory 2

4517 TCWC MSHPC CCA
TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 002...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU HPCLC
CYCLONESVILLE WT LIVERPOOL ENGLAND WARNING CENTRE HPCWT
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145
CORRECTED 01/0300H FORECAST POINT

WHILST STILL MEANDERING OFF THE COAST OF POPULARFREEDOM NEAR
MAGNA CARTA... TD-SEVENTEEN HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM
BRENT... THE 15TH OF THE SEASON. IT IS STILL A MIDGET SYSTEM...
SO MAJOR INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

AT 2 AM LOCAL TIME... 12 AM HPT... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND
WATCHES WERE INITIATED.

AT 3 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CITY
OF MAGNA CARTA AND THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT COAST... AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY
OF LOCKE HARBOR.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN WAS LOCATED
BY CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 34.2 EAST... OR ABOUT 50 KM... 30 MILES... EAST OF MAGNA CARTA
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 65 KM/H
OR 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 HPA. AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS SCHEDULED TO FLY
THIS SYSTEM AT 0615 HPT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS STATIONARY.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 25 KM... 15 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.

WILL BORROW FROM PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC... GIVEN THE APPARENT LACK OF ANY
STEERING MECHANISM AT THIS POINT...HAVE KEPT THE STORM STATIONARY FOR THE
FIRST SIX HOURS OR SO. BY THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A SLOW LOOP...
EGGED ON BY A NICE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN FROM THE SW. TROPICAL
STORM BRENT IS IN AN AREA OF 10-15 KNOT SHEAR... AND 27-28 DEGREE C SSTS.
THESE ARE SIGNS OF POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING... AND WITH SUCH A MIDGET SYSTEM
- NO MORE THAN 50 NM... 95 KM... ACROSS... RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE.
ACCORDINGLY... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE BEFORE
WEAKENING DUE TO IT RECROSSING ITS PATH OF COOLER SSTS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 35 KT
29/0900H... 41.6 N 34.2 E... 45 KT 
29/1500H... 41.7 N 34.3 E... 50 KT 
30/0300H... 41.7 N 34.5 E... 65 KT 
30/1500H... 41.6 N 34.3 E... 60 KT 
31/0300H... 41.8 N 33.8 E... 35 KT...OVER WATER POST-LANDFALL 
01/0300H... 42.4 N 31.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
01/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 34.2 E... ABOUT 50 KM EAST OF
MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/FRABANK

Advisory 3

4517 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL STORM BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 003
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 11 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTRE OF TS-BRENT
MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1017H LOCAL TIME. THE MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM
IS HARD TO PREDICT. SINCE BRENT IS A MIDGET SYSTEM... IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT IT COULD LOSE ITS IDENTITY INLAND. AT THIS POINT... ALL TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS ARE BEING DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
PREVIOUSLY ACTIVE STAYS IN EFFECT AS A PRECAUTION.

AT 9 AM HPT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MAGNA CARTA
NORTHWARD TO... AND INCLUDING... THE CITY OF LOCKE HARBOR.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM BRENT WAS LOCATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR OR OVER THE CITY OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM
... OR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 34.0 EAST. AT THIS TIME... MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 65 KM/H... 40 MPH... AND THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS 1005 HPA. THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT FOR
0615 HPT WAS CANCELLED DUE TO THE STORM'S EXTREME PROXIMITY TO LAND.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS UNDER THE WEAK INFLUENCE OF A STEERING RIDGE PATTERN... BUT
IF IT DOESN'T LOSE ITS IDENTITY IT SHOULD RE-EMERGE INTO OPEN WATER...
WHICH IS JUSTIFICATION FOR RETAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO JUST 15 KM... 10 MILES...
FROM THE CENTRE.

HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 200 MM... 8 IN... ARE POSSIBLE OVER
MAGNA CARTA... AND OF UP TO 100 MM... 4 INCHES... ARE POSSIBLE NEAR LOCKE HARBOR.
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR BOTH CITIES.

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BRING IT BACK INTO OPEN WATER AS A REMNANT LOW.
WHETHER IT REGENERATES IS THE QUESTION HERE. GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVOURABLE
CONDITIONS... NOT CONFIDENT THAT WILL HAPPEN... AND WILL DISSIPATE IT WITHIN
24 HR.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.5 N 34.0 E... 35 KT...INLAND
29/1500H... 41.6 N 33.8 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
29/2100H... 41.9 N 33.6 E... 20 KT...OVER WATER/REMNANT LOW
30/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 41.5 N 34.0 E... MAGNA CARTA,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY
WNW.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 4

4517 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 004
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
1 PM PAX... 3 PM HPT... 5 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145

BRENT STALLS NEAR MAGNA CARTA... HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE CITY...
WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

THE REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR LOCKE HARBOR HAVE
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM BRENT WAS LOCATED BY VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR WESTERN MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM... OR
LATITUDE 41.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 33.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO NEAR 50 KM/H... 30 MPH... BUT THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE RAIN... NOT THE WINDS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE
SYSTEM IS 1005 HPA. BRENT IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY.

FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR BOTH MAGNA CARTA AND LOCKE HARBOR.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE INLAND CITY OF ATHENS. A
RIVER OVERFLOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CITIES OF LOCKE HARBOR...
ATHENS... AND STANISLAV. STORM IS NOW DISSIPATING. HOWEVER... CONVECTION
IS STILL STRONG... AND HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING IS STILL BEING REPORTED.

TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM COULD REACH AS MUCH AS 430 MM... 17 INCHES.
ALREADY... 205 MM... 8 INCHES... HAVE BEEN REPORTED.

OFFICIAL FORECAST DISSIPATES IT INLAND. NEXT WARNING JOINTLY ISSUED WITH
HWSLC.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/1500H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.6 N 33.9 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
29/2100H... 41.7 N 33.5 E... 15 KT...DISSIPATING
30/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 PM HPT POSITION... 41.6 N 33.9 E... MAGNA CARTA,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS STATIONARY.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HPCLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE HEARTLAND
WEATHER SERVICE AT 9 PM HPT.

FORECASTER LAVAL

Advisory 5

4517 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT (4517) ADVISORY 005
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
ISSUED JOINTLY WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
7 PM PAX... 9 PM HPT... 11 PM LOCAL TIME JUL 29 2145

BRENT MOVES A LITTLE WEST... STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER MAGNA
CARTA... DISSIPATING.

AT 9 PM HPT... THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR TO BE INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 41.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 33.7 EAST... OR
ABOUT 80 KM... 50 MILES... WEST OF MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE FURTHER DECREASED TO NEAR 35 KM/H... 25 MPH... BUT
THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE RAIN... NOT THE WINDS. THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM IS 1009 HPA. BRENT IS MOVING WESTWARDS AT
11 KM/H... 7 MPH.

THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE HAS DOWNGRADED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR
LOCKE HARBOR TO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR MAGNA CARTA. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR LOCKE
HARBOR AND ATHENS. A RIVER OVERFLOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCKE
HARBOR... ATHENS... AND STANISLAV.

TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM COULD REACH AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES... 510 MM.
ALREADY... 350 MM... 14 INCHES... HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OF UP TO 4 FT... 1.2 M... REPORTED.

THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE INLAND SOON... IF NOT BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 29/2100H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.5 N 33.7 E... 20 KT...DISSIPATING
30/0300H... 41.5 N 33.6 E...LIGHT WINDS...DISSIPATING
30/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 PM HPT POSITION... 41.5 N 33.7 E... 80 KM WEST OF MAGNA CARTA,
POPULARFREEDOM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 KM/H... MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AT 11 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE JOINTLY ISSUED BY HPCLC AND HWULC AT 3 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/KRUGER

Advisory 6

4517 TCWC HPCLC
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT (4517) FINAL ADVISORY 006
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
LUNAR CITY, KOMPA RU SATELLITE BUREAU
ISSUED JOINTLY WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 5 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTRE OF BRENT HAS DECOUPLED FROM ANY
DEEP CONVECTION... AND IS NOW SPEEDING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST... BEING
DRAWN IN BY A LARGER TROPICAL DISTURBANCE... AND THE REMNANT CENTRE
IS NOW LOCATED OVER WATER. CONSEQUENTLY... THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY
FROM THE MSHPC ON THIS SYSTEM. AS THE CONVECTIVE REMNANTS STILL
PRODUCE A FLOOD THREAT... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE
TO ISSUE ADVISORIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MAGNA CARTA... A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR LOCKE HARBOR AND ATHENS. A RIVER OVERFLOW
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOCKE HARBOR... ATHENS... AND STANISLAV.

TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS STORM COULD REACH AS MUCH AS 20 INCHES... 510 MM.
ALREADY... 405 MM... 16 INCHES... HAVE BEEN REPORTED. WIDESPREAD FLOODING
OF UP TO 5 FT... 1.5 M... REPORTED.

THE STORM WILL DISSIPATE INLAND SOON... IF NOT BY THE NEXT ADVISORY. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. 

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 30/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT.
 INITIAL... 41.4 N 34.6 E...REMNANT LOW

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 HPA. THERE ARE NO WINDS REPORTED ABOVE 15 KT.
THE REMNANT LOW IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 26 KM/H... 16 MPH.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY HWULC... THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE...
AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTERS LAVAL/KRUGER