TD18 (2145)/Past

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Subtropical Storm Cassandra

Advisory 1

4518 TCWC HPCOR CCA
SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA (4518) ADVISORY 001
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, SER, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEADQUARTERS
1 AM PAX... 3 AM HPT... 3:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR OLD BORDER BETWEEN LIVERPOOL ENGLAND/UPPER BISWALD
DETERMINED TO BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON SUBTROPICAL
STORM CASSANDRA. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS BASED ON 40-KT WINDS FROM A
QUIKSCAT AT 0031H... AND A SHIP REPORT OF 49-KT WINDS ABOUT 140 NM NNE OF THE
SYSTEM... ALTHOUGH QUALITY CONTROLS SUGGEST THIS VALUE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR
46 KT. SHIP... FRX21... ALSO REPORTED PRESSURE READING OF 997 HPA. GIVEN THE
SHIP'S POSITION RELATIVE TO THE CENTRE OF THE STORM VERSUS QUALITY CONTROL...
IT WAS DETERMINED THAT 997 HPA WAS A FAIR VALUE AS AN ESTIMATION OF THE STORM'S
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF LIVERPOOL ENGLAND FROM
JUST SOUTH OF THE OLD BORDER WITH UPPER BISWALD TO THE POINT 41.5 N 21.7 E...ABOUT
200 KM NE OF THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MARINE/NAVAL BASE. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
FURTHER IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO THE POINT 42.6 N 22.4 E.

AT 3 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
40.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.5 EAST... OR ABOUT 260 KM... 160 MILES... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MARINE AND NAVAL BASE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR
85 KM/H... 50 MPH... AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 997 HPA. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT NEAR 37 KM/H... 23 MPH.

STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 285 KM... 180 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HEAVY
RAINS AND CHOPPY SEAS ARE TO BE EXPECTED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM... WITH LIGHTER
RAINS ON THE WEST.

THERE IS NO MAJOR SYNOPTIC SITUATION TO TALK ABOUT... A LOW NEAR LOX LAND ISLAND
DISSIPATING WILL NOT AFFECT SYSTEM. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM GULP MOUNTAINS
SOUTHWARD TO ABOUT 45 NORTH WILL HALT THIS SYSTEM IN ABOUT 48 HOURS... AND ACCORDINGLY
IT IS REDUCED TO A DISSIPATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THAT STAGE.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 30/0300H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 40.3 N 21.5 E... 45 KT
30/0900H... 41.0 N 22.0 E... 65 KT... STILL SUBTROPICAL
30/1500H... 41.5 N 23.6 E... 70 KT 
31/0300H... 41.9 N 25.1 E... 65 KT 
31/1500H... 42.1 N 26.1 E... 35 KT 
01/0300H... 43.2 N 26.7 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING
01/1500H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM HPT POSITION... 40.3 N 21.5 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HPA. SYSTEM MOVING NE AT 37 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 9 AM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

Advisory 2

4518 TCWC HPCOR CCA
SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA (4518) ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, SER, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEADQUARTERS
7 AM PAX... 9 AM HPT... 9:30 AM LOCAL TIME JUL 30 2145

..CASSANDRA REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...

AT 9 AM HPT... A HURRICANE WARNING WILL SUPERSEDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM THE COAST IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
MARINE/NAVAL BASE... NORTHWARD TO 42 N 22 E. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
EFFECT SOUTHWARD TO THE OLD BORDER WITH UPPER BISWALD... WHILE A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT NORTHWARD TO 42.6 N 22.4 E.

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT... HURRICANE STRENGTH... IS BASED OFF QUIKSCAT... A
POSSIBLE EYE-LIKE FEATURE ONLY DETECTABLE WITH A TRMM PASS... AND SHIP REPORT OF
75-KT GUST ABOUT 300 KM NNE OF THE LARGE SYSTEM... WHICH WILL SOON BEGIN TRANSITION
TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. BECAUSE CASSANDRA RETAINS SOME NON-TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS... IT HAS NOT BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

AT 9 AM HPT... THE CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
41.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 22.0 EAST... OR ABOUT 275 KM... 170 MILES... EAST OF THE LIVERPOOL
ENGLAND MARINE AND NAVAL BASE. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 KM/H... 75 MPH
AND MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT NEAR 70 KM/H... 44 MPH.

STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 415 KM... 260 MILES... FROM THE CENTRE. HURRICANE- 
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 100 KM... 60 MILES FROM THE CENTRE... MAINLY TO THE
NORTH.

A STATIONARY FRONT DOWN TO ABOUT 45 NORTH WILL FORCE THE CYCLONE EASTWARD... AND A COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST OVER LAND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE STORM'S SPEED. IT IS
REDUCED TO A WEAKENING EXTRATROPICAL STORM BY THE NEXT ADVISORY... AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
OR BECOME ABSORBED BY 36 HOURS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST
INITIAL TIME IS 30/0900H... ALL TIMES HPT
 INITIAL... 41.0 N 22.0 E... 65 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
30/1500H... 41.6 N 23.4 E... 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
30/2100H... 42.4 N 24.8 E... 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
31/0900H... 42.0 N 25.6 E... 30 KT...DISSIPATING
31/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM HPT POSITION... 41.0 N 22.0 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KM/H...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM MOVING ENE AT 70 KM/H.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE RELEASED AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI