Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

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{{Fakehurricane}}
 
{{Fakehurricane}}
−
{{Active storm|name=Tropical Storm Kanta
 
−
|category=storm|type=Tropical storm
 
−
|time=2100 HPT
 
−
|date=June 18
 
−
|year=2146
 
−
|location=[http://img224.imageshack.us/my.php?image=forecastmu6.png 5.5°N 5.4°E]<br/>420 km (260 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia
 
−
|winds=75 km/h (45 mph)
 
−
|windtype=1-minute sustained
 
−
|pressure=995 hPa
 
−
|movement=West-northwest}}
 
 
----
 
----
−
  TCIA5 WHCO 190605
+
  TCAD5 WHCO 200905
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 5A
+
  HURRICANE KANTA ADVISORY 10
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
−
  6 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  ...KANTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH AS IT PARALLELS THE INEPTIAN
+
  ...HURRICANE KANTA NEAR CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...
−
  COAST...
+
  ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE FROM SCHTOOPSTADT...
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 6 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ
+
  FIRST VISIBLES ARE DUE OUT IN ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT RELATIVELY COLD...
−
  EASTWARDS TO THE LA PLAGE COAST AT 6 DEG E. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
+
-75 CELSIUS...CLOUD TOPS AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN CORE STRUCTURE AS
−
  MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA
+
  SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS ONE T4.5 AND ONE T5.0
−
  WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.
+
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...MEAN THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
 +
ADVISORY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE 80 KNOTS...WHICH COULD BE A BIT LOW.
 +
  THE CIVILIAN HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
 +
  SCHEDULED TO FIX THE STORM AT AROUND 8:30 PAX TIME...90 MINUTES FROM
 +
NOW. BASED ON POSITIONAL FIXES...INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 320/16.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 6 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
+
  NO LAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...REFER TO TCMW5 WHCO FOR
−
  LATITUDE 5.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.7 EAST...ABOUT 130 KM OR 80 MILES
+
  MARINE WARNINGS IF APPLICABLE. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN EASTERN CARITAS
−
  SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.
+
  SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL
 +
MONSTER.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
+
  AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE KANTA WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
−
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
+
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 1.9 EAST...
−
  24 HOURS.  
+
  ABOUT 550 KM...345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLITZ INEPTIA.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
+
  HURRICANE KANTA IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TURN AND
−
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
+
  MOVE NORTHWEST AT 31 KM/H...19 MPH.
−
  THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
+
−
LATER THIS MORNING.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H...95 MPH...WITH
−
  THE CENTRE.
+
  HIGHER GUSTS. KANTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
 +
HURRICANE SCALE. FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
 +
HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
+
  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 KM...150 MILES...AND
−
  IS 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.
+
  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM...30 MILES...FROM THE
 +
CENTRE OF THE STORM.
 
   
 
   
−
  AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA...28.94 INCHES OF MERCURY.
−
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
+
−
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED A TOTAL OF 60 MM OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  NOTE...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH ENTERED THE STORM ABOUT AN HOUR
+
  THERE IS ABSOLUTELY ZILCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AT
−
  AGO IS STILL IN THE STORM AND INVESTIGATING IT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
+
  THIS TIME. MODEL RUNS ARE STILL FAIRLY SPLIT ABOUT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
−
SO FAR ARE IN THE MID- TO HIGH- 40S /KNOTS/ RANGE. THE PLANE REPORTED
+
  BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THIS IMPACTS THE FORECAST QUITE A BIT.
−
SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS OVER LAND NEAR THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
−
PROVINCIAL BORDER...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1001 HPA. SINCE THEN
+
−
  THE PRESSURES HAVE STARTED TO FALL...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 995 HPA.
+
−
BY THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
+
−
THE STORM'S STRUCTURE AND ITS INTENSITY.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 6 AM HPT POSITION...NEAR 5.8 N 4.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ADJUSTING THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOR NOW UNTIL THE
−
  WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. KANTA IS MOVING
+
RECON PLANE CAN GET IN AND SAMPLE THE STORM SO WE KNOW WHAT THE ACTUAL STORM
−
  NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H.
+
INTENSITY IS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THERE ARE VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
 +
AHEAD OF THE STORM. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...AND 10 KNOTS AT MOST. SEA SURFACE
 +
  TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY HELPFUL 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...WITH AN EDDY OF 30 TO
 +
  31 DEGREES C SST LYING AHEAD OF THE STORM SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
+
  THEREFORE...FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A MID-CATEGORY FOUR
−
  BY 0935 HPT.
+
  STORM TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  MODELS ALSO FAIRLY SPLIT OVER FUTURE POSITION OF A TUTT CELL RELATIVE TO
−
 
+
  STORM CENTRE. RECENT RUNS SHOW NO CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY...SO WILL
−
----
+
  KEEP A HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POINT.
−
  TCAD5 WHCO 190320
+
−
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 5
+
−
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
+
−
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...KANTA CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST INEPTIA...
+
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 +
INITIAL TIME...20/0900H
 +
  INITIAL... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 80 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.2 N 01.3 E... 90 KT -->
 +
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 95 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.1 N 00.0 E...105 KT -->
 +
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...115 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 09.3 N 01.2 W...125 KT -->
 +
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...125 KT <!-- 22/0300H... 10.6 N 02.0 W...120 KT -->
 +
22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W...105 KT <!-- 22/1500H... 11.6 N 01.8 W...100 KT   
 +
22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 95 KT      23/0300H... 12.8 N 01.4 W... 90 KT -->
 +
23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 W... 85 KT <!-- 23/1500H... 14.0 N 00.8 W... 80 KT   
 +
23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 75 KT      24/0300H... 15.0 N 00.1 W... 70 KT -->
 +
24/0900H... 15.4 N 00.2 E... 65 KT
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
+
  REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
−
FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
+
  NEAR 150 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
+
  AT NEAR 31 KM/H.
−
  BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WE LOWERED THE INTENSITY OF KANTA TO
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
−
35 KNOTS BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
+
  HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR IF NECESSARY.
−
ESIMTATES...WHICH DECREASED LATE YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING.
+
−
SINCE THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
+
−
  STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A REPORT FROM THE LA PLAGE COAST
+
−
WHICH RECENTLY CAME IN INDICATED A GUST TO ABOUT 43 KNOTS...SO IT
+
−
APPEARS THAT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS...PENDING AN
+
−
AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING...IS
+
−
THE BEST CHOICE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX IS IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
+
−
INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND NOW THE ESTIMATE IS
+
−
290/12.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
+
  FORECASTER JARVINEN/HUNTER
−
  LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.9 EAST...ABOUT 145 KM...90 MI SOUTH
+
----
−
  OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.
+
TCTW05 FOLN 200910
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 +
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 +
ISSUED 9:10 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 20 2146
 +
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 +
  WARNING NR:        10
 +
POSITION:          6.8N 1.9E
 +
ACCURACY:          10NM
 +
MOVEMENT:          NW 16KT
 +
CENT PRES:          980HPA
 +
MAX WIND:          80KT
 +
MAX GUST:          100KT
 +
FCST 12HR PSTN:    7.5N 0.7E
 +
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    95KT G115KT
 +
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 20 2146=
 +
 
 +
----
 +
TCMW5 WHCO 200900 CCA
 +
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE WARNING 10 CORRECTED
 +
HURRICANE KANTA
 +
ISSUED BY HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 +
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
 +
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MINIMUM PRESSURE
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
+
  MARINE WARNING.
−
  14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
+
  INITIAL POSITION VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 20.
−
  24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
+
  ..24 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 21.
−
  LIKELY.
+
  ..48 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 22.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
+
  HURRICANE WARNING.
−
  THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
+
HURRICANE KANTA 980 HPA STORM CENTRE AT 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. POSITION ACCURATE
−
  THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
+
TO 10 NAUTICAL MILES. PRESENT MOVEMENT 320/16. WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 25
−
  LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF INEPTIA...
+
  NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF
−
  THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.
+
  CENTRE.
 +
  HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF A LINE 12N 1W TO 6N 4E.
 +
HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF 3W SOUTH OF 12N NORTH OF 6N.
 +
  HURRICANE WARNING VALID 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE PASS MADE SHORTLY AFTER
+
  24 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 8.5 NORTH 0.5 WEST. WINDS UP TO 115
−
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE GROUND OBSERVATION WE RECEIVED
+
  KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 200
−
  FROM LA PLAGE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.
+
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
−
  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS THE COAST...
+
  48 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 11.1 NORTH 1.9 WEST. WINDS UP TO
−
  AND THEY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
+
  105 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN
 +
200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
+
  ALL MARINERS AVOID HURRICANE WARNING AREA NEXT 48 HOURS.
−
  INCHES OF MERCURY.
+
REQUEST FOR SHIP REPORTS EVERY SIX HOURS WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
 +
  EVERY THREE HOURS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST.
 
   
 
   
−
  AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
  NEXT MARINE WARNING ISSUED IN 24 HOURS...OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.
−
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
+
−
24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
THERE IS NO REASON FOR ME TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM
+
  FORECASTER HUNTER
−
LAST TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
+
−
BUT IF KANTA STARTS TO WEAKEN UNEXPECTEDLY...OR VICE-VERSA AND UNDERGOES
+
−
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
+
−
THE REASONING. INTENSITY WISE...ALMOST ALL THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW
+
−
STRENGTHEN A TUTT THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
+
−
CENTRAL PRUDENTIA. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND
+
−
A RATHER QUICKER WEAKENING THAN LAST ADVISORY IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.
+
−
+
−
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
+
−
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
+
−
  INITIAL... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT -->
+
−
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT -->
+
−
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT -->
+
−
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT -->
+
−
21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT   
+
−
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT      21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT -->
+
−
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT <!-- 22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT   
+
−
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT      22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT -->
+
−
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.7 NORTH 4.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
−
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
−
NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 KM/H.
+
−
+
−
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
+
−
0935 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0630 HPT.
+
−
+
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
−
----
+
−
TCTW05 FOLN 190320
+
−
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
+
−
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
+
−
ISSUED 3:20 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
−
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
+
−
WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
+
−
TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
+
−
WARNING NR:        5
+
−
POSITION:          5.7N 4.9E
+
−
ACCURACY:          20NM
+
−
MOVEMENT:          NW 12KT
+
−
CENT PRES:          995HPA
+
−
MAX WIND:          35KT
+
−
MAX GUST:          45KT
+
−
FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.3N 4.0E
+
−
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
+
−
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=
+

Latest revision as of 03:52, 13 October 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. 
TCAD5 WHCO 200905
HURRICANE KANTA ADVISORY 10
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146

...HURRICANE KANTA NEAR CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY...
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE FROM SCHTOOPSTADT...

FIRST VISIBLES ARE DUE OUT IN ABOUT AN HOUR...BUT RELATIVELY COLD...
-75 CELSIUS...CLOUD TOPS AND AN IMPROVEMENT IN CORE STRUCTURE AS
SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS ONE T4.5 AND ONE T5.0
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...MEAN THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS
ADVISORY IS SET AT A COMPROMISE 80 KNOTS...WHICH COULD BE A BIT LOW.
THE CIVILIAN HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO FIX THE STORM AT AROUND 8:30 PAX TIME...90 MINUTES FROM
NOW. BASED ON POSITIONAL FIXES...INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 320/16.

NO LAND TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT...REFER TO TCMW5 WHCO FOR
MARINE WARNINGS IF APPLICABLE. HOWEVER...INTERESTS IN EASTERN CARITAS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS POTENTIAL
MONSTER.

AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF HURRICANE KANTA WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 1.9 EAST...
ABOUT 550 KM...345 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERLITZ INEPTIA.

HURRICANE KANTA IS NOW EXPECTED TO TAKE A SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TURN AND
MOVE NORTHWEST AT 31 KM/H...19 MPH.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 150 KM/H...95 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. KANTA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 KM...150 MILES...AND
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 KM...30 MILES...FROM THE
CENTRE OF THE STORM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 HPA...28.94 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY ZILCH TO CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...AT
THIS TIME. MODEL RUNS ARE STILL FAIRLY SPLIT ABOUT A RECURVATURE SCENARIO
BEYOND 48 TO 72 HOURS...AND THIS IMPACTS THE FORECAST QUITE A BIT.

WILL ALSO HOLD OFF ON ADJUSTING THE FORECAST INTENSITY FOR NOW UNTIL THE
RECON PLANE CAN GET IN AND SAMPLE THE STORM SO WE KNOW WHAT THE ACTUAL STORM
INTENSITY IS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK THERE ARE VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE STORM. SHEAR IS MINIMAL...AND 10 KNOTS AT MOST. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE A VERY HELPFUL 28 TO 29 DEGREES C...WITH AN EDDY OF 30 TO
31 DEGREES C SST LYING AHEAD OF THE STORM SOME TIME TOMORROW MORNING. 

THEREFORE...FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO REFLECT A MID-CATEGORY FOUR
STORM TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

MODELS ALSO FAIRLY SPLIT OVER FUTURE POSITION OF A TUTT CELL RELATIVE TO
STORM CENTRE. RECENT RUNS SHOW NO CHANGE FROM THE LAST ADVISORY...SO WILL
KEEP A HURRICANE INTENSITY FOR THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POINT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...20/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 80 KT 
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 95 KT 
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...115 KT 
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...125 KT 
22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W...105 KT 
23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 W... 85 KT 
24/0900H... 15.4 N 00.2 E... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION...NEAR 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 150 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 31 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
HPT. A TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE MAY BE ISSUED PRIOR IF NECESSARY.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 200910
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:10 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 20 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         10
POSITION:           6.8N 1.9E
ACCURACY:           10NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 16KT
CENT PRES:          980HPA
MAX WIND:           80KT
MAX GUST:           100KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     7.5N 0.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    95KT G115KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 20 2146=

TCMW5 WHCO 200900 CCA
TROPICAL CYCLONE MARINE WARNING 10 CORRECTED
HURRICANE KANTA
ISSUED BY HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 20 2146
CORRECTED TO INCLUDE MINIMUM PRESSURE 

MARINE WARNING.
INITIAL POSITION VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 20.
..24 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 21.
..48 HR FORECAST VALID 0900 HPT JUNE 22.

HURRICANE WARNING.
HURRICANE KANTA 980 HPA STORM CENTRE AT 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST. POSITION ACCURATE
TO 10 NAUTICAL MILES. PRESENT MOVEMENT 320/16. WINDS UP TO 80 KNOTS WITHIN 25
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES OF
CENTRE.
HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF A LINE 12N 1W TO 6N 4E.
HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF 3W SOUTH OF 12N NORTH OF 6N.
HURRICANE WARNING VALID 24 HOURS.

24 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 8.5 NORTH 0.5 WEST. WINDS UP TO 115
KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN 200
NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
48 HR...HURRICANE KANTA STORM CENTRE AT 11.1 NORTH 1.9 WEST. WINDS UP TO
105 KNOTS WITHIN 45 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE. WINDS UP TO 64 KNOTS WITHIN
200 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.

ALL MARINERS AVOID HURRICANE WARNING AREA NEXT 48 HOURS.
REQUEST FOR SHIP REPORTS EVERY SIX HOURS WITHIN HURRICANE WARNING AREA...
EVERY THREE HOURS WITHIN 250 NAUTICAL MILES OF 6.8 NORTH 1.9 EAST.

NEXT MARINE WARNING ISSUED IN 24 HOURS...OR AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FORECASTER HUNTER
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