Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

Revision as of 03:23, 29 September 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCAD1 WHCO 190940 CCA
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 3
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
...CORRECTED TO ADD 'INLAND' NOTE TO FORECAST POINT...

...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANISATION OF DEPRESSION...

NOT MUCH TO SAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS NO DATA TO
JUSTIFY ANY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE WILL
SOON BE IN TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER...
360/10.

INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST
...ABOUT 905 KM...565 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
PACE OF ABOUT 19 KM/H...12 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WILL GAIN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.

CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 
DEPRESSION MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST MODEL SHEAR
DIAGNOSTIC DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING TOO BAD...ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...SO IT IS QUITE THE QUESTION WHY THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET
STRENGTHENED.

SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIRE AROUND THE CENTRE OVER THE PAST
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT HELPING. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE ITS CHANCES OF BECOMING TROPICAL...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING
SOME. BASED ON CONTINUITY...I AM NOT CHANGING THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REFUSE TO STRENGTHEN IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWN.

AN ADDITIONAL POINT TO NOTE...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...IF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
 INITIAL... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 
22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND
23/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 21.2 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 19 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
1535 HPT.

FORECASTER NOLAN

TCTW01 FOLN 190940
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   SUB-TD SIX
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           20.8N 41.2E
ACCURACY:           50NM
MOVEMENT:           N 12KT
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           25KT
MAX GUST:           35KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     22.3N 41.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=