Difference between revisions of "TD2"

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|-
 
|-
 
| '''As of:'''
 
| '''As of:'''
−
! 1600 Eastern Probitas time [[Wikipedia:April 19|April 19]], [[Wikipedia:2139|2139]]
+
! 1600 Eastern Probitas time [[Wikipedia:April 20|April 20]], [[Wikipedia:2139|2139]]
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Location:'''  
 
| '''Location:'''  
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|-
 
|-
 
| '''Wind speed:'''  
 
| '''Wind speed:'''  
−
| 135 mph (215 km/h) <!-- in knots: 115 kt -->
+
| 150 mph (240 km/h) <!-- in knots: 130 kt -->
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Pressure:'''
 
| '''Pressure:'''
−
| 933 [[Wikipedia:Pascal|hPa/mbar]] (69.98 cmHg, 27.55 inHg)<!-- X 0.075 to cmHg, then /2.54 to inHg -->
+
| 930 [[Wikipedia:Pascal|hPa/mbar]] (69.75 cmHg, 27.46 inHg)<!-- X 0.075 to cmHg, then /2.54 to inHg -->
 
|-
 
|-
 
| '''Movement:'''
 
| '''Movement:'''
−
| Southwest at 8 mph (13 km/h) <!--7kt-->
+
| West-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h) <!--7kt-->
 
|-
 
|-
 
! colspan="2" bgcolor="orange"  | See update below. Past advisories and discussions available [[TD2/Past|here]]
 
! colspan="2" bgcolor="orange"  | See update below. Past advisories and discussions available [[TD2/Past|here]]
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----
 
----
 
<big>Hurricane Sandra Discussion</big>
 
<big>Hurricane Sandra Discussion</big>
−
  HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) DISCUSSION ADVISORY 001
+
  HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) DISCUSSION ADVISORY 002
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Liverpool England|LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]] MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]]
 
  [[Orean|OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND]]
−
  4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 19 2139
+
  4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 20 2139
 
   
 
   
 
  THE ONLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND AT THE MOMENT IS NOT WITHIN
 
  THE ONLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND AT THE MOMENT IS NOT WITHIN
Line 35: Line 35:
 
  PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR [[Wikipedia:tropical cyclone warnings and watches|WARNINGS AND WATCHES]].
 
  PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR [[Wikipedia:tropical cyclone warnings and watches|WARNINGS AND WATCHES]].
 
   
 
   
−
  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REPORTED TO BE AT 933
+
  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REPORTED TO BE AT 930
 
  HECTOPASCALS BY A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE FLIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM
 
  HECTOPASCALS BY A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE FLIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM
−
  FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEARTLAND DEFENSE POST.
+
  FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEARTLAND DEFENSE POST AT 1428 LOCAL TIME.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPORTS FROM THE FLIGHT INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA - ABOUT 250
+
  REPORTS FROM THE FLIGHT INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA - NOW ABOUT
−
  NM IN DIAMETER - CENTRED OUTSIDE THE AOR... INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM...SANDRA...
+
  290 NM IN DIAMETER - CENTRED OUTSIDE THE AOR... NAMED SANDRA...
−
  HAS NOT GAINED NOR LOST INTENSITY SINCE THE FINAL UPDATE ISSUED AT 1130 EPT.
+
  HAS GAINED INTENSITY SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION 24 HOURS AGO.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 220/08 - 220 DEG BEARING OR SOUTH-
+
  THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 290/07 - WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7KT.
−
WESTWARD AT NEAR 7 TO 8 KNOTS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK SANDRA SHOULD RE-ENTER
+
−
THE AOR FOR AT LEAST 3 HOURS SOON BEFORE RE-LEAVING IT.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  THE SYSTEM IS NOT FACING HEAVY WIND SHEAR... CONTRIBUTING TO THE SUSTAINED
 
  THE SYSTEM IS NOT FACING HEAVY WIND SHEAR... CONTRIBUTING TO THE SUSTAINED
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  FORECAST....DATE/LOCALTIME....ESTIMATED POSN....INTENSITY
 
  FORECAST....DATE/LOCALTIME....ESTIMATED POSN....INTENSITY
−
  INITIAL......APR19/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....115KT...CAT4
+
  INITIAL......APR20/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTHWEST
−
  12HR.........APR20/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....120KT...CAT4
+
  12HR.........APR21/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTH
−
  24HR.........APR20/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTHWEST
+
  24HR.........APR21/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...140KT...CAT5...WILL START WEAKENING
−
  36HR.........APR21/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTH
+
  36HR.........APR22/04...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...135KT...CAT5...WEAKENING
−
  48HR.........APR21/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...140KT...CAT5...WILL START WEAKENING
+
  48HR.........APR22/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...120KT...CAT4...HURRICANE WATCHES
−
  72HR.........APR22/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...120KT...CAT4...HURRICANE WATCHES
+
  72HR.........APR23/16...IN AOR N OF S.CAPRN...100KT...CAT3...H WARN...TS WATCH
−
  96HR.........APR23/16...IN AOR N OF S.CAPRN...100KT...CAT3...H WARN...TS WATCH
+
  96HR.........APR24/16.........SW OF MIRAMAR....75KT...CAT1...INLAND
−
  120HR........APR24/16.........SW OF MIRAMAR....75KT...CAT1...INLAND
+
  120HR........APR25/16..........W OF MIRAMAR....50KT...TRST...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
   
 
   
−
  ISSUED BY RINDLI
+
  ISSUED BY JOHNS
  
 
[[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]]
 
[[Category:Liverpool England tropical cyclones]]

Revision as of 05:37, 27 November 2005

Current storm status
Hurricane Sandra (Category 4)
As of: 1600 Eastern Probitas time April 20, 2139
Location: Outside the LE AOR
Wind speed: 150 mph (240 km/h)
Pressure: 930 hPa/mbar (69.75 cmHg, 27.46 inHg)
Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h)
See update below. Past advisories and discussions available here

Hurricane Sandra Discussion 

HURRICANE SANDRA (3904) DISCUSSION ADVISORY 002
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERV CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE
OREAN, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
4 PM EASTERN PROBITAS TIME APR 20 2139

THE ONLY ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE HEARTLAND AT THE MOMENT IS NOT WITHIN
THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE CYCLONE PREDICTION CENTRE'S
JURISDICTION AND THEREFORE A DISCUSSION IS ISSUED.
 
PLEASE CONSULT YOUR LOCAL OR NATIONAL WEATHER OUTLET FOR WARNINGS AND WATCHES.

DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS IN THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...REPORTED TO BE AT 930
HECTOPASCALS BY A LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE FLIGHT INTO THE EYE OF THE STORM
FROM THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND HEARTLAND DEFENSE POST AT 1428 LOCAL TIME.

REPORTS FROM THE FLIGHT INDICATE THAT THIS LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA - NOW ABOUT
290 NM IN DIAMETER - CENTRED OUTSIDE THE AOR... NAMED SANDRA...
HAS GAINED INTENSITY SINCE THE LAST DISCUSSION 24 HOURS AGO.

THE ESTIMATED MOTION AT THIS TIME IS SET AT 290/07 - WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 7KT.

THE SYSTEM IS NOT FACING HEAVY WIND SHEAR... CONTRIBUTING TO THE SUSTAINED
STRENGTH AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM... THE PREDICTION MODELS ALL ESTIMATE
SANDRA TO POSSIBLY REACH AN EXTREMELY RARE CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH.

FORECAST....DATE/LOCALTIME....ESTIMATED POSN....INTENSITY
INITIAL......APR20/16..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTHWEST
12HR.........APR21/04..........OUTSIDE AOR....130KT...CAT4...TURNING NORTH
24HR.........APR21/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...140KT...CAT5...WILL START WEAKENING
36HR.........APR22/04...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...135KT...CAT5...WEAKENING
48HR.........APR22/16...IN AOR S OF MIRAMAR...120KT...CAT4...HURRICANE WATCHES
72HR.........APR23/16...IN AOR N OF S.CAPRN...100KT...CAT3...H WARN...TS WATCH
96HR.........APR24/16.........SW OF MIRAMAR....75KT...CAT1...INLAND
120HR........APR25/16..........W OF MIRAMAR....50KT...TRST...INLAND AND DISSIPATING

ISSUED BY JOHNS
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