Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

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|movement=West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph)}}
 
|movement=West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph)}}
 
----
 
----
  TCAD5 WHCO 181535
+
  TCAD5 WHCO 181900
  TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 2
+
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
  3 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME
+
  7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME
 
   
 
   
  ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
+
  ...THIRD NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS OFF INEPTIAN COAST...
...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA CONTINUING TO FEEL EFFECTS OF RAINBANDS...
+
 
   
 
   
  DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
+
  DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
  DEPRESSION FIVE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM
+
  CYCLONE SHOWS THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE
  STRENGTH. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 38-43 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...
+
  THIRD OF THE SEASON. OBS FROM AROUND 1750 HPT WERE MOST HELPFUL IN
IN THE REGION OF 32-37 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
+
DETERMINING THE NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TS KANTA...WITH CLOSE
  VERY TIGHT BANDING WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
+
TO 45 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...ALMOST 38 KNOTS AT SURFACE. A SONDE
  THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER LARGE...AND THIS IS HAMPERING ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING
+
  REPORT FROM SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 1815...HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 39
  OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE...AND
+
  KNOTS. SO...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED...AND SUPERSEDES THE
  T2.0/30 KT FROM HDCW. UHWF IS ON THE HIGH END AT T3.0/45 KT. IT CERTAINLY
+
  SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
  IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY
+
SET AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
  TO LAND AND THE RATHER UNFAVOURABLE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...I AM GOING FOR AN
+
  ADVISORY PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR INTENSITY.
  INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS NOW SLIGHTLY
+
 
FASTER...285/07.
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
 +
  BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
 +
  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
 +
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ
+
  INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
+
  OF THIS SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
+
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
+
  INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
+
  THIS SYSTEM.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
  AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
  AT 7 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS ESTIMATED TO BE
  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.8 EAST...ABOUT 320 KM...
+
  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.5 EAST...ABOUT 405 KM...
  200 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.
+
  250 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. AT THE SYNOPTIC HOUR...6 PM HPT...
+
  THE CENTRE WAS ABOUT 390 KM WEST OF ST. DENIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
+
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
+
  IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE
+
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT
+
24 HOURS.
+
+
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
+
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD
+
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME.
+
 
   
 
   
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA...29.50 INCHES OF
+
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
  MERCURY.
+
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
 +
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
 +
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
 +
  INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
  AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. DENIS
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...
+
  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
  MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
+
 
   
 
   
  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
+
  THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
  EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION MODEL. THE WEAK STEERING
+
  AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA...29.41 INCHES OF MERCURY.
CURRENTS ARE THE EXPLANATION FOR THE CURRENT RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION...BUT
+
WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SET TO DEVELOP...THE CYCLONE WILL
+
TRACK SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE TO THE NORTH IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS
+
ALONG THIS WEAKNESS.
+
 
   
 
   
  THE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVOURABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. SEA SURFACE
+
  AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST.
  TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...ABOUT 27 CELSIUS...BUT ARE WARM
+
  DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS VERY
+
  THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
CLOSE TO LAND...AND COUPLED WITH THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THIS
+
  IS ENOUGH FOR THE LAND INTERACTION TO BE INHIBITING MUCH INTENSIFICATION.
+
WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CALLS
+
FOR A MINIMAL OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
  IN THE LONG RUN...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...SO STRENGTHENING IS
+
  NO FORECAST PROGNOSTIC INVOLVED WITH THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE FORECAST
  FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. SSTS ALSO WARM NEAR
+
  IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ADJUST INTENSITY.
10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A
+
HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96 HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
  INITIAL TIME...18/1500H
+
  INITIAL TIME...18/1900H
   INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.8 E... 30 KT <!-- 18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 35 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.5 E... 40 KT <!-- 18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT -->
  19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 35 KT -->
+
  19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT -->
 
  19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT -->
 
  19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT -->
 
  20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT -->
 
  20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT -->
Line 96: Line 76:
 
  22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT
 
  22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT
 
   
 
   
  REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.8 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
+
  REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
  NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
+
  NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
 
  AT NEAR 13 KM/H.
 
  AT NEAR 13 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT...WITH
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1830 HPT.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER HUNTER
 
  FORECASTER HUNTER
 
----
 
----
  TCTW05 FOLN 181530
+
  TCTW05 FOLN 181900
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
  ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
+
  ISSUED 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
  ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 18 2146
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        1900H JUNE 18 2146
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  TD FIVE
+
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
  WARNING NR:        2
+
  WARNING NR:        3
  POSITION:          5.4N 5.8E
+
  POSITION:          5.4N 5.5E
  ACCURACY:          25NM
+
  ACCURACY:          20NM
 
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 07KT
 
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 07KT
  CENT PRES:          999HPA
+
  CENT PRES:          996HPA
  MAX WIND:          30KT
+
  MAX WIND:          40KT
  MAX GUST:          40KT
+
  MAX GUST:          50KT
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    5.7N 4.9E
 
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    5.7N 4.9E
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    35KT G45KT
+
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
  NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146=
REMARKS:            NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=
+

Revision as of 01:52, 21 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Tropical Depression Five
Tropical depression
As of: 1500 HPT June 18, 2146
Location: 5.4°N 5.8°E
320 km (200 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia
Maximum
winds:
55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 999 hPa
Movement: West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph)
Past advisories and discussions available here

TCAD5 WHCO 181900
TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME

...THIRD NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS OFF INEPTIAN COAST...

DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE SHOWS THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE
THIRD OF THE SEASON. OBS FROM AROUND 1750 HPT WERE MOST HELPFUL IN
DETERMINING THE NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TS KANTA...WITH CLOSE
TO 45 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...ALMOST 38 KNOTS AT SURFACE. A SONDE
REPORT FROM SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 1815...HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 39
KNOTS. SO...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED...AND SUPERSEDES THE
SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE
SET AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR INTENSITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 7 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.5 EAST...ABOUT 405 KM...
250 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. AT THE SYNOPTIC HOUR...6 PM HPT...
THE CENTRE WAS ABOUT 390 KM WEST OF ST. DENIS.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA...29.41 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST.
DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR
THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

NO FORECAST PROGNOSTIC INVOLVED WITH THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ADJUST INTENSITY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/1900H
 INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.5 E... 40 KT 
19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST
AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT.

FORECASTER HUNTER

TCTW05 FOLN 181900
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1900H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         3
POSITION:           5.4N 5.5E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT
CENT PRES:          996HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     5.7N 4.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146=