Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"
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|movement=West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph)}} | |movement=West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph)}} | ||
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− | TCAD5 WHCO | + | TCAD5 WHCO 181900 |
− | TROPICAL | + | TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3 |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
− | + | 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME | |
− | ... | + | ...THIRD NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS OFF INEPTIAN COAST... |
− | + | ||
− | DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT | + | DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL |
− | + | CYCLONE SHOWS THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE | |
− | + | THIRD OF THE SEASON. OBS FROM AROUND 1750 HPT WERE MOST HELPFUL IN | |
− | + | DETERMINING THE NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TS KANTA...WITH CLOSE | |
− | + | TO 45 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...ALMOST 38 KNOTS AT SURFACE. A SONDE | |
− | + | REPORT FROM SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 1815...HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 39 | |
− | + | KNOTS. SO...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED...AND SUPERSEDES THE | |
− | + | SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE | |
− | + | SET AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS | |
− | TO | + | ADVISORY PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR INTENSITY. |
− | + | ||
− | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM | |
+ | BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT | ||
+ | TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN | ||
+ | THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | ||
− | + | INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS | |
− | + | OF THIS SYSTEM. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS | + | |
− | THIS SYSTEM. | + | |
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... | ||
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
− | AT | + | AT 7 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS ESTIMATED TO BE |
− | LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5. | + | LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.5 EAST...ABOUT 405 KM... |
− | + | 250 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. AT THE SYNOPTIC HOUR...6 PM HPT... | |
− | + | THE CENTRE WAS ABOUT 390 KM WEST OF ST. DENIS. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | THE | + | TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H... |
− | + | 8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD | |
+ | SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... | ||
+ | THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE | ||
+ | INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | ||
− | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. | |
− | + | NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE | |
− | + | AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA...29.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | THE | + | AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. |
− | + | DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR | |
− | + | THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
− | + | NO FORECAST PROGNOSTIC INVOLVED WITH THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE FORECAST | |
− | + | IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ADJUST INTENSITY. | |
− | + | ||
− | + | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
− | INITIAL TIME...18/ | + | INITIAL TIME...18/1900H |
− | INITIAL... 05.4 N 05. | + | INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.5 E... 40 KT <!-- 18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT --> |
− | 19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... | + | 19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT --> |
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT --> | 19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT --> | ||
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT --> | 20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT --> | ||
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22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT | 22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT | ||
− | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS |
− | NEAR | + | NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST |
AT NEAR 13 KM/H. | AT NEAR 13 KM/H. | ||
− | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT. |
− | + | ||
FORECASTER HUNTER | FORECASTER HUNTER | ||
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− | TCTW05 FOLN | + | TCTW05 FOLN 181900 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
− | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 |
− | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 1900H JUNE 18 2146 |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
− | TROPICAL CYCLONE: | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA |
− | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 3 |
− | POSITION: 5.4N 5. | + | POSITION: 5.4N 5.5E |
− | ACCURACY: | + | ACCURACY: 20NM |
MOVEMENT: WNW 07KT | MOVEMENT: WNW 07KT | ||
− | CENT PRES: | + | CENT PRES: 996HPA |
− | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 40KT |
− | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 50KT |
FCST 12HR PSTN: 5.7N 4.9E | FCST 12HR PSTN: 5.7N 4.9E | ||
− | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT |
− | NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146 | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146= |
− | + |
Revision as of 01:52, 21 September 2007
Tropical Depression Five | |
---|---|
Tropical depression | |
As of: | 1500 HPT June 18, 2146 |
Location: | 5.4°N 5.8°E 320 km (200 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia |
Maximum winds: |
55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 999 hPa |
Movement: | West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph) |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD5 WHCO 181900 TROPICAL STORM KANTA SPECIAL ADVISORY 3 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 4 PM PAX TIME ...THIRD NAMED STORM OF SEASON FORMS OFF INEPTIAN COAST... DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOWS THAT IT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM...THE THIRD OF THE SEASON. OBS FROM AROUND 1750 HPT WERE MOST HELPFUL IN DETERMINING THE NEED TO UPGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO TS KANTA...WITH CLOSE TO 45 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...ALMOST 38 KNOTS AT SURFACE. A SONDE REPORT FROM SHORTLY AFTER...AROUND 1815...HAD A SURFACE WIND OF 39 KNOTS. SO...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS ISSUED...AND SUPERSEDES THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE...THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE...EXCEPT FOR INTENSITY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 7 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.5 EAST...ABOUT 405 KM... 250 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. AT THE SYNOPTIC HOUR...6 PM HPT... THE CENTRE WAS ABOUT 390 KM WEST OF ST. DENIS. TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H... 8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 996 HPA...29.41 INCHES OF MERCURY. AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. NO FORECAST PROGNOSTIC INVOLVED WITH THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY...THE FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TO ADJUST INTENSITY. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/1900H INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.5 E... 40 KT 19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT 19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT REPEATING THE 7 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.5 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
TCTW05 FOLN 181900 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 7 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 1900H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA WARNING NR: 3 POSITION: 5.4N 5.5E ACCURACY: 20NM MOVEMENT: WNW 07KT CENT PRES: 996HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 5.7N 4.9E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146=