TD05 (2146)
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Tropical Storm Kanta | |
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Tropical storm | |
As of: | 2100 HPT June 18, 2146 |
Location: | 5.5°N 5.4°E 420 km (260 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia |
Maximum winds: |
75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 995 hPa |
Movement: | West-northwest |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD5 WHCO 182120 CCA TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 6 PM PAX TIME ...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY... ...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON MEANDERING OFF SW INEPTIA... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1900 BASED ON DATA WE HAD FROM THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...WHICH SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY OF 38-39 KNOTS. THE PLANE HAS SINCE LEFT THE STORM...AND ANOTHER ONE WILL BE IN TO INVESTIGATE IT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. SINCE IT HAS ONLY BEEN TWO HOURS SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THERE HAS BEEN NO OBVIOUS CHANGE IN THE CYCLONE...THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA WEST OF BERLITZ SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM... 260 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H... 8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT A SLIGHT TEMPORARY WEAKENING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE STORM CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LAND. TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM THE CENTRE. THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE STORM REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED AS IT WAS. THEREFORE...AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LAST FORECAST. SOME MODELS NOW SHOWING SHEAR RELAXING EARLIER THAN FORECAST...IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH SUCH A COMPACT SYSTEM... THE SYSTEM COULD START TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT... BASED ON CONTINUITY THERE IS ALSO NO CHANGE TO THE LAST INTENSITY FORECAST... WHICH HOLDS THE CYCLONE AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AFTER. A HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS NOT REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST AS KANTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR 14N UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS RESTRICTED OUTFLOW BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/2100H INITIAL... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT 21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 60 KT 23/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 60 KT REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.5 NORTH 5.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0030 HPT. FORECASTER JARVIS/RINDLI
TCTW05 FOLN 182120 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:20 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 5.5N 5.3E ACCURACY: 20NM MOVEMENT: WNW 07KT XTRP CENT PRES: 995HPA MAX WIND: 40KT MAX GUST: 50KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.0N 4.5E FCST 12HR WINDS: 40KT G50KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 18 2146=