TD04/06 (2146)
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Subtropical Depression Six | |
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Subtropical depression | |
As of: | 2200 HPT June 18, 2146 |
Location: | 20.4°N 41.3°E 1095 km (685 miles) south of Atollville, West Kompa Ru |
Maximum winds: |
45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 1008 hPa |
Movement: | |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD1 WHCO 182210 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY 1 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME ...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REGENERATE INTO SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING LAND... AFTER CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO REINITIATE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS UNDER WHAT NAME TO DO SO... THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO DECLARE THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GIVE IT A NEW NUMBER. THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION IS BECAUSE A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND THE CENTRE TO BE NEAR 20.4N 41.3E...BUT ITS MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTRE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOVEMENT IS AROUND 360/09. NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 10 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST ...ABOUT 1095 KM...683 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA. THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. AFTER WHAT TD FOUR DID...I AM RATHER HESITANT TO EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES FULLY TROPICAL STATUS. TRACK FORECAST WISE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS RATHER STEADILY...AND IS ACTUALLY RATHER CLOSE TO OUR OLD FORECAST TRACK FOR TD FOUR. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BREAKING WE EXPECTED WITH TD FOUR HAS NOT HAPPENED. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL THEREFORE TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AFTER WHICH IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. THE MODELS...WHICH WERE RATHER SPREAD OUT ON TD FOUR...APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST...SO INTERESTS IN WEST AND EAST KOMPA RU SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. LATE IN THE FORECAST...A RATHER RAPID WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/2200H INITIAL... 20.4 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 23/2100H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 20.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
TCTW05 FOLN 182210 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 10:10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2200H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 20.4N 41.3E ACCURACY: 50NM MOVEMENT: N 17KM/H CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 25KT MAX GUST: 35KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 21.2N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 18 2146=