TD05 (2146)
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
| Tropical Depression Five | |
|---|---|
| Tropical depression | |
| As of: | 1500 HPT June 18, 2146 |
| Location: | 5.4°N 5.8°E 320 km (200 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia |
| Maximum winds: |
55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 999 hPa |
| Movement: | West-northwest at 13 km/h (8 mph) |
| Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD5 WHCO 181535 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 2 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 1 PM PAX TIME ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STATUS... ...SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA CONTINUING TO FEEL EFFECTS OF RAINBANDS... DATA FROM AN AFLE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE IS VERY NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 38-43 KNOT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS... IN THE REGION OF 32-37 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS VERY TIGHT BANDING WITHIN THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER LARGE...AND THIS IS HAMPERING ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM. LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY FIXES ARE T2.0/30 KT FROM AFLE...AND T2.0/30 KT FROM HDCW. UHWF IS ON THE HIGH END AT T3.0/45 KT. IT CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM...BUT DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND THE RATHER UNFAVOURABLE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM...I AM GOING FOR AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KNOTS. THE INITIAL MOVEMENT IS NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER...285/07. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.8 EAST...ABOUT 320 KM... 200 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H... 8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 999 HPA...29.50 INCHES OF MERCURY. AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA BETWEEN BERLITZ AND ST. DENIS WILL RECEIVE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST... MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONSENSUS AND EXTRAPOLATION MODEL. THE WEAK STEERING CURRENTS ARE THE EXPLANATION FOR THE CURRENT RELATIVELY SLOW MOTION...BUT WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SET TO DEVELOP...THE CYCLONE WILL TRACK SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE TO THE NORTH IN 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS ALONG THIS WEAKNESS. THE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVOURABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN AVERAGE...ABOUT 27 CELSIUS...BUT ARE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A MINIMAL TO WEAK TROPICAL STORM. THE CYCLONE IS VERY CLOSE TO LAND...AND COUPLED WITH THE SIZE OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE...THIS IS ENOUGH FOR THE LAND INTERACTION TO BE INHIBITING MUCH INTENSIFICATION. WIND SHEAR IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A MINIMAL OR WEAK TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS. IN THE LONG RUN...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN...SO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. SSTS ALSO WARM NEAR 10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96 HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/1500H INITIAL... 05.4 N 05.8 E... 30 KT 19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.4 NORTH 5.8 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 2135 HPT...WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1830 HPT. FORECASTER HUNTER
TCTW05 FOLN 181530 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FIVE WARNING NR: 2 POSITION: 5.4N 5.8E ACCURACY: 25NM MOVEMENT: WNW 07KT CENT PRES: 999HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 5.7N 4.9E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146 REMARKS: NEXT WARNING EARLIER IF NECC=
