Liverpool England MSHPC cyclone summary/Past summaries
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February 2145
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
FEBRUARY 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT MARCH 7 2145
FEBRUARY WAS AN UNUSUSALLY ACTIVE MONTH FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY THIS SEASON,
WITH TWO NAMED STORMS FORMING DURING FEBRUARY. THE ESTIMATED AVERAGE HAS BEEN 0.3
NAMED STORMS. TWO TROPICAL CYCLONES... HURRICANE VEIRU AND TROPICAL STORM GEORGE...
FORMED DURING FEBRUARY.
HURRICANE VEIRU STARTED OUT AS A NON-TROPICAL GALE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN A LARGE
TROUGH NORTHWEST OF COKEKILA ON FEBRUARY 3 - A GOOD MONTH BEFORE THE SOUTHWESTERN
REGION SEASON BEGAN ON MARCH 1. THIS SYSTEM DETACHED FROM THE TROUGH TWO DAYS
LATER AND GAINED SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS, ENDING UP BEING DESIGNATED
SUBTROPICAL STORM VEIRU THE SAME DAY, FEBRUARY 5. CONTINUING TO GAIN TROPICALITY,
IT BECAME FULLY TROPICAL LATER THAT DAY, PROMPTING EMERGENCY HURRICANE WARNINGS
FOR THE COAST OF DASHAKE. IT REACHED ITS PEAK STRENGTH OF 80 KT/971 HPA SHORTLY
BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF DASHAKE NOT FAR WEST OF SEALDRE. IT BEGAN TO
MOVE WEST BUT EMERGED INTO OPEN WATER. THE SYSTEM DEGENERATED INTO A SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION SHORTLY BEFORE DISSIPATING SOUTH OF PORTLAND, DASHAKE. 132 DEATHS
WERE REPORTED FROM THE STORM, MAKING IT THE DEADLIEST RECORDED IN HEARTLAND
HISTORY.
TROPICAL STORM GEORGE WAS A SHORT-LIVED STORM THAT NEVER WAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO FORMED ON THE SAME DAY AS SUBTROPICAL STORM VEIRU, BUT QUICKLY LOST STRENGTH.
SHORTLY AFTER, A RECON AIRCRAFT INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS AND THE
SYSTEM WAS NAMED GEORGE. IT MADE LANDFALL ON AN ISLAND OF TORQUAY, KILLING TEN.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
H VEIRU 4501 05-07 FEB 80 132* NONE
TS GEORGE 4502 05-06 FEB 45 10 NONE
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER
March 2145
TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
MARCH 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT APRIL 4 2145
MARCH WAS UNUSUALLY ACTIVE THIS YEAR... WITH SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMING IN
THE HEARTLAND. OF THESE SIX... FIVE... FELICIA... RUVA... ABADDON... YURI AND
GYARNIFQ... WERE NAMED... AND ONE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR... IS BEING
RETROACTIVELY UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FOUR. OF THESE SIX TROPICAL STORMS...
TWO... ABADDON AND YURI... GAINED HURRICANE STRENGTH... WITH YURI BREAKING
HURRICANE VEIRU'S RECORD FOR DEATHS CAUSED.
TROPICAL STORM FELICIA WAS FIRST OBSERVED AS A LOW-PRESSURE AREA ON THE OFFICIAL
START OF THE SEASON... MARCH 1. EARLY ON THE 2ND THE MSHPC DETERMINED THAT FELICIA
HAD GAINED ENOUGH CONVECTION AND ORGANISATION TO BE DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM
WITH 35-40 KT WINDS WEST OF TORQUAY. WIND SHEAR QUICKLY SET IN CAUSING FELICIA TO
WEAKEN. IT WAS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THE SAME DAY... AND DISSIPATED
ON MARCH 3. NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE REPORTED.
TROPICAL STORM FOUR FORMED ON MARCH 3 NEAR THE PAX MERIDIAN... THE BORDER BETWEEN
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST DISTRICTS. WHILE TROPICAL STORM FOUR NECESSITATED
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS... IT NEVER REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OPERATIONALLY,
WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL 45 KT AT THE FINAL ADVISORY. FOUR'S SECOND ADVISORY WAS
OPERATIONALLY RELEASED WITH 30-KT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS BUT NOTED THAT A BUOY
HAD REPORTED TWO-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 40 KT. AS SUCH... IN POST-STORM
ANALYSIS... THE MSHPC HAS DECIDED TO INCREASE THIS VALUE TO 35 KT... HENCE MAKING
FOUR A TROPICAL STORM AND ADDING 0.1225 TO THE SEASONAL ACE VALUE. THE STORM
QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND CAUSED NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED EAST OF SCHIMPOL, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND ON MARCH 3. A
QUICK-MOVING SHORT-LIVED STORM, IT MADE LANDFALL NEAR LOYALTY BAY, DISSIPATING
INLAND OVER THE LOYALTY MOUNTAINS. THREE INDIRECT DEATHS CAME FROM RUVA... ALTHOUGH
NO MAJOR DAMAGE WAS REPORTED. RUVA ALSO SPAWNED ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION, WHICH
WOULD GO ON TO BECOME HURRICANE ABADDON.
IN AN OUTER BAND OF RUVA, A LOW-PRESSURE CENTRE SEEMED TO BE DEVELOPING. WITH SUDDEN
BURSTS OF CONVECTION LATE ON MARCH 3 AND CONFIRMATION FROM A RECON FLIGHT THAT THE
SYSTEM WAS SEPERATE FROM RUVA, ADVISORIES WERE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.
THREE HOURS LATER, THE SYSTEM HAD SLOWED DOWN ENOUGH TO BE FULLY APART FROM RUVA, AND
HAD BEEN INTENSIFYING OVER WARM WATERS. TROPICAL STORM ABADDON QUICKLY BECAME A
HURRICANE, BUT IN THE WAKE OF RUVA IT WEAKENED ALMOST AS FAST AS IT STRENGTHENED,
PEAKING ONLY AS A CATEGORY TWO 90-KNOT HURRICANE. ABADDON MADE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL
STORM NORTH OF LOYALTY BAY, KILLING FOUR. TWO DAYS LATER, A REMNANT LOW AREA HAD GAINED
CONVECTION ABOUT 1000 KM SOUTHWEST OF PEARSON CLIFFS. AFTER MUCH DISCUSSION, ADVISORIES
WERE RE-INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION ABADDON, WHICH QUICKLY MADE LANDFALL. ABADDON
CAUSED NO REPORTED DAMAGES.
YURI FORMED FROM A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL ON MARCH 4.
LOX LAND ISLAND WEATHER OBSERVATORY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE (TCWC LLIWO) FIRST
PICKED IT UP AS A TROPICAL STORM ABOUT 300 KM SOUTH OF SCHIMPOL ON MARCH 4. THIS SYSTEM
WAS NEVER CLASSIFIED AS A DEPRESSION TO START WITH FROM EITHER TCWC LLIWO OR RSMC-TCWC
MSHPC. YURI WEAKENED LATER THAT DAY... AND ADVISORIES WERE DISCONTINUED THE SAME NIGHT
BY THE MSHPC. THE TCWC CONTINUED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES... ALL THE WHILE FORECASTING
ALPHA.01... THE OFFICIAL TCWC LLIWO DESIGNATION FOR 4507 YURI... TO REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM... AND EVEN HURRICANE... STRENGTH. WHEN TCWC LLIWO REUPGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ALPHA TO A TROPICAL STORM... THEY INFORMED THE MSHPC... WHICH DID NOT RESUME ADVISORIES
IMMEDIATELY UNTIL HDCW AND UHWF REPORTS CONFIRMED T-NUMBERS OF CLOSE TO 3.0. ADVISORIES
WERE RESUMED AT 0930H LST ON MARCH 5... 12 HOURS AFTER THE FINAL ADVISORY WAS RELEASED.
YURI THEN MOVED OVER MUCH WARMER WATERS AS IT MOVED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST, TRIGGERING
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE EASTERN LOX LAND ISLAND COAST. THE SYSTEM THEN SPED UP,
TAKING A SLIGHT JIG TO THE NORTHWEST BEFORE TURNING BACK EAST, AIMING STRAIGHT FOR
PEARSON CLIFFS, POPULARFREEDOM. THE EASTWARDS MOTION CONTINUED, AND YURI MADE LANDFALL
AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE - THE FIRST MAJOR HURRICANE LANDFALL SINCE THE MSHPC TOOK
OVER RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. YURI WEAKENED SLIGHTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...
BUT QUICKLY RE-EMERGED INTO WATER, TRIGGERING TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR WORKERS POINT.
YURI HEADED NORTHEASTWARDS BEFORE MAKING AN ANTI-CLOCKWISE LOOP, MAKING LANDFALL ON
WORKERS POINT AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. YURI DISSIPATED INLAND... TRIGGERING FLOOD
WATCHES AND TORNADO WARNINGS. OVER 400 DEATHS ARE BLAMED ON YURI... WITH OVER ONE BILLION
LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE... SETTING NEW HEARTLAND RECORDS.
GYARNIFQ STARTED LIFE AS A LOW EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF POPULARFREEDOM. WHEN
IT WAS FINALLY DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT, CONDITIONS WERE NOT FAVOURABLE.
HOWEVER, IT MANAGED TO GAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH SHORTLY BEFORE LANDFALL, MAKING
LANDFALL AS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL STORM. NO DAMAGES WERE REPORTED, ALTHOUGH TWO PEOPLE
WERE KILLED.
THIS MAKES THE MONTH OF MARCH ONE OF THE MOST ACTIVE... COSTLY... AND DEADLY... ON
RECORD.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS FELICIA 4503 02-03 MAR 40 NONE NONE
TS** FOUR 4504 03 MAR 35** NONE NONE
TS RUVA 4505 03-04 MAR 50 3 NONE
H ABADDON 4506 03-04 MAR
05-06 MAR 90 4 NONE
H YURI 4507 04 MAR
05-09 MAR 120 404* 16 000 000
TS GYARNIFQ 4508 06-08 MAR 40 2 NONE
MONTHLY TOTAL 6 02-09 MAR 413 16 000 000
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
**UPGRADED IN POST-STORM ANALYSIS
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/GUNTHER
April 2145
TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
APRIL 2145...CORRECTED
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT MAY 2 2145
CORRECTED FOR SPELLING
APRIL SAW ONE TROPICAL CYCLONE... TROPICAL STORM OREN... FORM. THE MONTHLY
EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS IN APRIL IS TWO... SO THIS MONTH
WAS BELOW AVERAGE.
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM OREN DEVELOPED FROM A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 450 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF AL-JOHARI, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND LATE APRIL 14. TCWC
LLIWO INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA... AND SHORTLY AFTER THE
MSHPC STARTED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. ALTHOUGH LOW SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND... THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... SEEMINGLY
MADE INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY... TD NINE STRENGTHENED INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
EARLY APRIL 15 AND WAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM OREN. IT WAS A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING
SYSTEM AND QUICKLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE... DUMPING UP TO 15
INCHES... 380 MM... OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE WERE
REPORTED.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TS OREN 4509 14-15 APR 35 NONE NONE
MONTHLY TOTAL 1 14-15 APR NONE NONE
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS CALTS/GUNTHER
May 2145
TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
MAY 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT JUN 1 2145
NO TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN MAY... EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE FOR MAY IS 0.5 NAMED
STORMS.
IN APRIL...
SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL STORM OREN DEVELOPED FROM A CONVECTIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ABOUT 450 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF AL-JOHARI, LIVERPOOL ENGLAND LATE APRIL 14. TCWC
LLIWO INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA... AND SHORTLY AFTER THE
MSHPC STARTED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE. ALTHOUGH LOW SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND... THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA... SEEMINGLY
MADE INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY... TD NINE STRENGTHENED INTO A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
EARLY APRIL 15 AND WAS NAMED TROPICAL STORM OREN. IT WAS A RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING
SYSTEM AND QUICKLY MADE LANDFALL IN THE GULP MOUNTAIN RANGE... DUMPING UP TO 15
INCHES... 380 MM... OF RAIN IN THE MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS. NO DEATHS OR DAMAGE WERE
REPORTED.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MONTHLY TOTAL 0
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS CALTS/GUNTHER
June 2145
TCMS TCWC HPCOR CCC
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
JUNE 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 AM HPT JUL 1 2145
UPDATED 3 AM HPT JUL 23 2145
SIX TROPICAL CYCLONES FORMED IN JUNE... WELL ABOVE THE MONTHLY EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE
OF FOUR. OF THE SIX... FIVE... NITSCHKE 4511... GRIEL 4510... MIRSCQY 4513...
LINAS 4514 AND AMY 4515... WERE NAMED. TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS THE ONLY
UNNAMED STORM OF THE MONTH... BUT STILL BROUGHT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO AREAS
OF KOMPA RU.
THE FIRST AND LONGEST-LASTING STORM OF THE MONTH... IMPRESSIVE CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE GRIEL (4510)... FORMED ON JUNE 10 FROM A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE WEST OF
TORQUAY THAT HAD BEEN CONTINUALLY GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT A DAY. AN AFLE
RECONNAISANCE AIRCRAFT FLEW INTO THE SYSTEM ON JUNE 10 AND A SPECIAL ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED AT 10/2200 HPT WHEN THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT. COUPLED
WITH SPARSE SHIP REPORTS OF 35 KNOTS, BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS AT THE TIME
THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION. THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM FIVE HOURS LATER BUT INSTEAD OF BEING NAMED NITSCHKE - THE NEXT NAME ON THE LIST
- A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO NAME IT GRIEL, AS IT WAS DECIDED THAT STORM 4511 HAD REACHED
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH EARLIER THAN 4510 AND HENCE WOULD TAKE THE NEXT AVAILABLE NAME.
AN INTERESTING POINT TO NOTE ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THAT WHILE TROPICAL... IT WAS ALWAYS
WITHIN A HALF DEGREE LATITUDE OF 14.0 SOUTH. GRIEL CONTINUED TO MOVE WEST AND
STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE AT 11/2100 HPT - BARELY 24 HOURS AFTER FORMING. CONSENSUS
DATA-T OF 4.0 FROM HDCW AND UHWF WAS THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING GRIEL TO A 65-KT HURRICANE.
ITS WESTWARD PATH CONTINUED AND AS IT MOVED OVER WARM WATERS GRIEL CONTINUED ITS
INTENSIFICATION, BECOMING A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE JUST SIX HOURS LATER. THIS ADVISORY
... THE 6TH... WAS ALSO THE FIRST WHILE GRIEL WAS A HURRICANE TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY
OF A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. AT 12/1500 HPT THE DECISION WAS MADE TO UPGRADE GRIEL TO A
CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE WITH 105-KNOT WINDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS PUT IN PLACE AT
THIS TIME FOR THE COAST OF VASSFFORCIA. AGAIN... GRIEL'S RAPID STRENGTHENING PHASE BUMPED
IT UP ANOTHER CATEGORY AT THE NEXT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT WAS DECIDED TO PUT A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO NUEVO. FURTHER WARNINGS AND WATCHES WERE SOON NEEDED
FOR THE SOUTHERN VENERATIO-01 AND NORTHERN ANIMUS-01 COASTS. AT 13/1500 HPT A NEW REGIONAL
RECORD FOR MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS ESTIMATED AT 928 HPA... AND AN AFLE RECON AIRCRAFT
WAS SCRAMBLED. A SIGNIFICANT RELOCATION OCCURRED AT 14/0300 HPT WITH THE FINDINGS OF THIS
RECON FLIGHT... WHICH PLACED THE CENTRE OF GRIEL WEST OF THE EXPECTED POSITION. IT WAS
ALSO AT THIS ADVISORY WHERE THE AFLE PLANE REPORTED 140-KT WINDS FROM A DROPSONDE... AS
WELL AS A 907 HPA MINIMUM PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE READING FOR THIS ADVISORY WAS ESTIMATED
AT 903 HPA AS THE READING WAS NOT FROM THE CENTRE. HOWEVER, THE 140-KT INTENSITY WAS
UTILISED... MAKING GRIEL THE FIRST CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE OR CYCLONE THAT THE MSHPC OR
EX-MSCPC HAD WARNED ON FOR SIX YEARS. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE FOR THIS CYCLONE... ALONG
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS... WERE REPORTED AT THE NEXT ADVISORY - 145 KT, 899 HPA - MAKING
GRIEL THE STRONGEST CYCLONE EVER ON RECORD IN THE REGION. AT THIS POINT - 14/0900HPT...
GRIEL HAD WOBBLED TO THE WNW... FORCING HURRICANE WARNINGS TO GO INTO EFFECT FOR
PRUBDABLIA. A RAPID WEAKENING THEN ENSUED AS AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE TOOK PLACE AND
GRIEL WOBBLED BACK ONTO ITS ORIGINAL PATH... NOW AS A 135-KT CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. FURTHER
WEAKENING UNTIL LANDFALL AT 15/1220 HPT AS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. IN ALL GRIEL KILLED
AT LEAST 40... AND CAUSED AS MUCH AS 13 BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE. THE STORM
BECAME EXTRATROPICAL INLAND LATER THAT DAY AND ADVISORIES WERE STOPPED AT 15/1500 HPT.
NITSCHKE WAS ANOTHER SYSTEM THAT WARRANTED A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO INITIATE THE SYSTEM. AT
THE SAME TIME THAT TD-TEN WAS NUMBERED... TWO SHIPS... SSC ARMADON AND NLES RUSSELL...
REPORTED CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS WITHIN 120 KM OF THE CENTRE OF A DISTURBANCE
LOCATED ABOUT 700 KM SOUTHWEST OF VICTORY UNION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AS A 30-KT
DEPRESSION... ALTHOUGH DISCUSSIONS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER WAY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THIS
VALUE WILL BE UPPED TO 35 KT IN THE POST-STORM TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT. THE STORM WAS
UPGRADED TO A 40-KT SYSTEM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY BASED ON AN IMPROVING SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND SOON COMMENCED ON A LOOP PATH. THE SYSTEM QUICKLY LOST TROPICALITY AND
WAS DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL ON JUNE 11.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE WAS A RAIN-BRINGER TO MANY PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL EASTERN
PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST DISTRICT OF THE HEARTLAND. IT BEGAN AS A DISTURBANCE BUT NEVER
GAINED ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL EARLY JUNE 11. DUE
TO ITS GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH... WATCHES WERE PUT INTO EFFECT. HOWEVER,
INTERACTION WITH LAND MEANT THAT THE SYSTEM NEVER STRENGTHENED BEYOND ITS INITIAL ADVISORY
INTENSITY OF 30 KT. IT DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW 12 HOURS AFTER THE FIRST ADVISORY.
HOWEVER... IT REMAINED A POTENT SYSTEM WITH THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PICKING UP ON
THE SYSTEM AND ISSUING FOUR ADVISORIES. UP TO SEVEN INCHES OF RAIN WERE REPORTED IN
EAST KOMPA RU AND KOMPA RU... AS WELL AS UP TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN ON THE OFFSHORE PARQUE
DE CORRACION. THREE DEATHS WERE REPORTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TROPICAL STORM MIRSCQY WAS A WEIRD SYSTEM... BOTH IN NAME AND IN ITS LIFESPAN. THE SHORT-
LIVED STORM MOVED SOUTH OFF THE GULP MOUNTAIN PENINSULA AND BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION,
WHICH IS RARE. IT WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT LOST EXTRATROPICALITY DUE TO A
WEATHER FRONT.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORMED NORTH OF ALTHOS, SPAAMANIAN PLIJOUS LATE ON JUNE 12.
THE SYSTEM... WHICH HAD BEEN MONITORED FOR ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF... WAS DETERMINED TO
BE SUBTROPICAL IN NATURE AND WITH ENOUGH ORGANISATION TO WARRANT A DESIGNATION. TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WERE SOON ISSUED FOR ALTHOS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO STORM STRENGTH -- A
SHIP... CALL SIGN SNX334X... REPORTED A GUST TO 42 KT NEAR ALTHOS. THE STORM THEN SPED
UP A BIT IN FORWARD SPEED AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM NEAR ALTHOS... MAKING
LANDFALL NOT LONG AFTER, KILLING SEVEN.
THE FINAL STORM OF THE MONTH FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WAS ORIGINALLY SPOTTED SOUTH OF LOX LAND ISLAND. THE SYSTEM MOVED OVER THE ISLAND,
CAUSING WIND DAMAGE, BEFORE STRENGTHENING AND ORGANISING IN WARM WATERS NORTHEAST
OF SCHIMPOL. IT WAS DESIGNATED A TROPICAL STORM AT THE INITIAL ADVISORY AND NAMED
AMY WITH THE FIRST NAME OFF THE OLD NAMING LISTS. THE SYSTEM FAILED TO STRENGTHEN
FURTHER AS EXPECTED IN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS HOWEVER, AND DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN
TROUGH 24 HOURS AFTER FORMATION. 36 MILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS IN DAMAGE WERE REPORTED
FROM THE NON-TROPICAL PREDECESSOR OF AMY ON LOX LAND ISLAND.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HU GRIEL 4510 10-15 JUN 145 40* NONE
TS NITSCHKE 4511 10-11 JUN 40 0 NONE
TD TWELVE 4512 11 JUN 30 3* NONE
TS MIRSCQY 4513 12 JUN 35 0 NONE
TS LINAS 4514 12-13 JUN 35 7* NONE
TS AMY 4515 14-15 JUN 35 0 36 000 000
MONTHLY TOTAL 6 JUNE 10-15 50* 36 000 000
*PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS CALTS/RINDLI/HUNTER/JOHNSON/JARVINEN
July 2145
TCMS TCWC HPCOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE MONTHLY SUMMARY
JULY 2145
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE, OREAN
3 PM HPT AUG 1 2145
JULY WAS RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL THE END OF THE MONTH... WHEN WE SAW A TOTAL OF
FOUR TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES IN A LITTLE OVER A WEEK. TWO TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS... AND TWO NAMED STORMS - ONE SUBTROPICAL - FORMED. THE MONTHLY
EXTRAPOLATED AVERAGE FOR JULY IS FIVE... SO THIS WAS STILL A BELOW-AVERAGE
MONTH.
THE FIRST TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE MONTH WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (4516)...
WAS DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 5 PM HPT ON JULY 22 AFTER AN AFLE RECON
PLANE FOUND EVIDENCE OF A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM WAS INITIATED AT 25 KT
BASED ON THE REPORT FROM THE AIRCRAFT. DUE TO PROXIMITY TO THE ITCZ... NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED. A NEARBY TUTT... TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH... IMPARTED
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SHEAR ONTO THE CYCLONE... AND THE FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
AT 9 AM HPT JULY 23 WHEN RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE SYSTEM HAD
DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE.
A MIDGET SYSTEM WAS SPOTTED NEAR MAGNA CARTA, POPULARFREEDOM ABOUT A WEEK AFTER
THE DISSIPATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN. HOWEVER... BEFORE ANY NUMBERED
WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED... THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL. SHORTLY AFTER, QUIKSCAT
CONFIRMED A REFORMED CENTRE OF CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST, AND ADVISORIES WERE
INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN (4517) AT 9 PM HPT JULY 28. A TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATE WAS ISSUED THREE HOURS LATER TO PUT TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND
WARNINGS INTO EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN POPULARFREEDOM COAST. IT STRENGTHENED
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AT THE NEXT ADVISORY AND WAS NAMED BRENT WITH THE SECOND NAME
FROM THE OLD LISTS. BECAUSE OF ITS MIDGET SIZE... THE FORECAST CALLED FOR HURRICANE
INTENSITY. HOWEVER... IT MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0817 HPT JULY 29. THE LOW SOON
DECOUPLED FROM CONVECTION... AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 3 AM HPT JULY 30.
BRENT CAUSED HALF A BILLION LIVERPOOL POUNDS WORTH OF DAMAGE FROM FLOODING... BUT
NO CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CASSANDRA WAS NAMED ON JULY 30 WHILE EAST OF THE OLD BORDER BETWEEN
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AND THE FORMER UPPER BISWALD. QUIKSCAT INDICATED 40 KT WINDS AND
SHIP REPORTS INDICATED 50-KT WINDS... SO INITIAL INTENSITY WAS 45 KT. THE STORM
INTENSIFIED INTO A 65-KT SUBTROPICAL STORM... HURRICANE INTENSITY... BUT RETAINED
SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND HENCE WAS NOT UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH
THIS IS THE CURRENT FOCAL POINT OF POST-STORM ANALYSIS. IT LOST TROPICALITY AT 3 PM
HPT JULY 30 AND A FINAL ADVISORY WAS ISSUED WITH THE SYSTEM NEVER HAVING AFFECTED LAND.
THE FINAL SYSTEM OF THE MONTH... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN... FORMED FROM THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRENT. IN STRONG SHEAR... IT NEVER REALLY
HAD A CHANCE... AND DISSIPATED WITHIN A DAY OF ITS FORMATION.
SUMMARY TABLE
STR NAME NUMBER DURATION MAX WIND DEATHS LIVERPOOL ENGLAND
KT DAMAGE
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TD SIXTEEN 4516 22-23 JUL 30 0 NONE
TS BRENT 4517 28-30 JUL 35 NONE REPORTED NONE
SS CASSANDRA 4518 30 JUL 65 0 NONE
TD NINETEEN 4519 30-31 JUL 30 0 NONE
MONTHLY TOTAL 4 22-31 JUL 0 NONE
DATES ARE BASED ON LOCAL TIME
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTERS RINDLI/HUNTER
