Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
Jump to: navigation, search
Line 11: Line 11:
 
|movement=North at 17 km/h}}
 
|movement=North at 17 km/h}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD1 WHCO 182210 CCB
+
  TCAD1 WHCO 190340
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY 1
+
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 2
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
−
  10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 8 PM PAX TIME
+
  3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
−
...CORRECTED FORECAST...
+
−
...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME...
+
 
   
 
   
−
  ...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REGENERATE INTO SUBTROPICAL
+
  ...DEPRESSION REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...
−
DEPRESSION...
+
−
...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING LAND...
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AFTER CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT
+
  THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. CONVECTION
−
TO REINITIATE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS UNDER WHAT NAME TO DO SO...
+
  REMAINS FAIRLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE TO HOLD ON TO THE SUBTROPICAL
−
  THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO DECLARE THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
+
  CLASSIFICATION. MOST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EITHER TOO WEAK...AN
−
  DEPRESSION FOUR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GIVE IT A NEW NUMBER.
+
  ST1.5...AND THERE IS ALSO ONE TROPICAL T1.0. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
−
  THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION IS BECAUSE A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
+
  HELD AT 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION FOR NOW...355/09.
−
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND THE CENTRE TO BE NEAR 20.4N 41.3E...BUT
+
−
ITS MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTRE.
+
−
  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOVEMENT IS
+
−
AROUND 360/09.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS
+
  INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
−
IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE
+
  THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
−
  PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  
+
 
   
 
   
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 10 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
+
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
−
  WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
+
  WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
−
  ...ABOUT 1095 KM...683 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.  
+
  ...ABOUT 1015 KM...635 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.  
 
   
 
   
 
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
 
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
Line 49: Line 40:
 
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 
  MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
 
  MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
−
  STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
  STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
 +
DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.
−
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. AFTER WHAT TD FOUR DID...I AM RATHER HESITANT
+
  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THE OLD FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
−
  TO EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT
+
  THE DEPRESSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED. STILL...SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
−
24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES FULLY TROPICAL STATUS.
+
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL  
−
  TRACK FORECAST WISE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS RATHER
+
  CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS OVER THE
−
STEADILY...AND IS ACTUALLY RATHER CLOSE TO OUR OLD FORECAST TRACK FOR TD
+
  NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST IS FORECAST BASED
−
FOUR. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BREAKING WE EXPECTED WITH TD FOUR HAS NOT HAPPENED.
+
ON AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL THEREFORE TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARDS THE NEXT
+
  ALTHOUGH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS
−
FEW DAYS...AFTER WHICH IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. THE MODELS...WHICH WERE RATHER
+
  MAY VERY EASILY NOT VERIFY.
−
SPREAD OUT ON TD FOUR...APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT
+
−
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST...SO INTERESTS IN WEST AND EAST KOMPA
+
−
  RU SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. LATE IN THE FORECAST...A RATHER RAPID
+
−
  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME...18/2200H
+
  INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
−
   INITIAL... 20.4 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/0300H... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL -->
+
   INITIAL... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL -->
−
19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL -->
+
19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL -->
−
19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL <!-- 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL -->
+
20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT -->
−
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT -->
+
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE -->
−
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT    
+
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT    
−
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT     21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT -->
+
21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT     21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
−
21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND <!-- 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING    
+
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND <!-- 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
−
22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW     22/1500H...DISSIPATED -->
+
  23/0300H...DISSIPATED
−
  22/2100H...DISSIPATED
+
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 20.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 20.8 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 
  WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 
  WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 
  NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.
 
  NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT.
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0935 HPT.
 
   
 
   
 
  FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
 
  FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW01 FOLN 182210
+
  TCTW01 FOLN 190340
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED 10:10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
+
  ISSUED 3:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        2200H JUNE 18 2146
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  SUB-TD SIX
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  SUB-TD SIX
−
  WARNING NR:        1
+
  WARNING NR:        2
−
  POSITION:          20.4N 41.3E
+
  POSITION:          20.8N 41.3E
 
  ACCURACY:          50NM
 
  ACCURACY:          50NM
 
  MOVEMENT:          N 17KM/H
 
  MOVEMENT:          N 17KM/H
Line 101: Line 87:
 
  MAX WIND:          25KT
 
  MAX WIND:          25KT
 
  MAX GUST:          35KT
 
  MAX GUST:          35KT
−
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    21.2N 41.2E
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    21.7N 41.2E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=

Revision as of 12:58, 27 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Subtropical Depression Six
Subtropical depression
As of: 2200 HPT June 18, 2146
Location: 20.4°N 41.3°E
1095 km (685 miles) south of Atollville, West Kompa Ru
Maximum
winds: 		45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Movement: North at 17 km/h
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD1 WHCO 190340
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 2
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...DEPRESSION REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...

THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. CONVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE TO HOLD ON TO THE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATION. MOST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EITHER TOO WEAK...AN
ST1.5...AND THERE IS ALSO ONE TROPICAL T1.0. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION FOR NOW...355/09.

INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
...ABOUT 1015 KM...635 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.

THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THE OLD FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE DEPRESSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED. STILL...SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST IS FORECAST BASED
ON AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...
ALTHOUGH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS
MAY VERY EASILY NOT VERIFY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
 INITIAL... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT 
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
23/0300H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 20.8 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0935 HPT.

FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN

TCTW01 FOLN 190340
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   SUB-TD SIX
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           20.8N 41.3E
ACCURACY:           50NM
MOVEMENT:           N 17KM/H
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           25KT
MAX GUST:           35KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     21.7N 41.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=
Retrieved from "http://archive.nswiki.org/index.php?title=TD04/06_(2146)&oldid=323239"