Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"

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|movement=North at 17 km/h}}
 
|movement=North at 17 km/h}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCAD1 WHCO 190340
+
  TCAD1 WHCO 190940
−
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 2
+
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 3
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN  
−
  3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  ...DEPRESSION REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...
+
  ...NO CHANGE IN DEPRESSION...
 
   
 
   
−
  THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. CONVECTION
+
  NOT MUCH TO SAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS NO DATA TO
−
REMAINS FAIRLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE TO HOLD ON TO THE SUBTROPICAL
+
  JUSTIFY ANY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE WILL
−
  CLASSIFICATION. MOST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EITHER TOO WEAK...AN
+
  SOON BE IN TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER...
−
  ST1.5...AND THERE IS ALSO ONE TROPICAL T1.0. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
+
360/10.
−
HELD AT 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION FOR NOW...355/09.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
 
  INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
Line 30: Line 29:
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
  INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 3 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
+
  AT 9 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
−
  WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
+
  WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST
−
  ...ABOUT 1015 KM...635 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.  
+
  ...ABOUT 905 KM...565 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE.  
 
   
 
   
 
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
 
  SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
−
  PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
+
  PACE OF ABOUT 19 KM/H...12 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WILL GAIN FORWARD SPEED
 
  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
  OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
Line 45: Line 44:
 
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.
 
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.
 
   
 
   
−
  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THE OLD FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
+
  CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE AND IT APPEARS THAT THE
−
  THE DEPRESSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED. STILL...SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
+
DEPRESSION MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST MODEL SHEAR
−
  IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL  
+
DIAGNOSTIC DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING TOO BAD...ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
−
  CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS OVER THE
+
  SHEAR...SO IT IS QUITE THE QUESTION WHY THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET
−
  NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST IS FORECAST BASED
+
STRENGTHENED.
−
  ON AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...
+
   
−
  ALTHOUGH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS
+
SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIRE AROUND THE CENTRE OVER THE PAST
−
  MAY VERY EASILY NOT VERIFY.
+
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT HELPING. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
 +
TO MOVE NORTH IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR...WHICH
 +
SHOULD IMPROVE ITS CHANCES OF BECOMING TROPICAL...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING
 +
  SOME. BASED ON CONTINUITY...I AM NOT CHANGING THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT
 +
  THIS TIME...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REFUSE TO STRENGTHEN IT IS
 +
LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWN.
 +
   
 +
AN ADDITIONAL POINT TO NOTE...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...IF THE INTENSITY
 +
  FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED LATER
 +
  TODAY FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU.
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
+
  INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
−
   INITIAL... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL -->
+
   INITIAL... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL -->
−
  19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL -->
+
  19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL <!-- 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL -->
−
20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT -->
+
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT -->
−
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE -->
+
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT -->
−
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT    
+
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT    
−
21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT     21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND -->
+
21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND -->
−
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND <!-- 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW -->
+
22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW  
−
  23/0300H...DISSIPATED
+
  23/0900H...DISSIPATED
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 20.8 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 21.2 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 
  WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 
  WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
−
  NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.
+
  NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 19 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0935 HPT.
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
 +
1535 HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN
+
  FORECASTER NOLAN
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW01 FOLN 190340
+
  TCTW01 FOLN 190940
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED 3:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  SUB-TD SIX
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  SUB-TD SIX
 
  WARNING NR:        2
 
  WARNING NR:        2
−
  POSITION:          20.8N 41.3E
+
  POSITION:          20.8N 41.2E
 
  ACCURACY:          50NM
 
  ACCURACY:          50NM
−
  MOVEMENT:          N 17KM/H
+
  MOVEMENT:          N 12KT
 
  CENT PRES:          1008HPA
 
  CENT PRES:          1008HPA
 
  MAX WIND:          25KT
 
  MAX WIND:          25KT
 
  MAX GUST:          35KT
 
  MAX GUST:          35KT
−
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    21.7N 41.2E
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    22.3N 41.2E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=

Revision as of 03:21, 29 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Subtropical Depression Six
Subtropical depression
As of: 2200 HPT June 18, 2146
Location: 20.4°N 41.3°E
1095 km (685 miles) south of Atollville, West Kompa Ru
Maximum
winds: 		45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 1008 hPa
Movement: North at 17 km/h
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD1 WHCO 190940
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 3
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...NO CHANGE IN DEPRESSION...

NOT MUCH TO SAY. NO CHANGE MADE TO INTENSITY SINCE THERE IS NO DATA TO
JUSTIFY ANY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE WILL
SOON BE IN TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM. INITIAL MOTION SLIGHTLY FASTER...
360/10.

INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST
...ABOUT 905 KM...565 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
PACE OF ABOUT 19 KM/H...12 MPH. THE DEPRESSION WILL GAIN FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.

CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE AND IT APPEARS THAT THE 
DEPRESSION MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME WIND SHEAR. THE LATEST MODEL SHEAR
DIAGNOSTIC DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING TOO BAD...ABOUT 15 KNOTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR...SO IT IS QUITE THE QUESTION WHY THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT YET
STRENGTHENED.

SOME CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRYING TO FIRE AROUND THE CENTRE OVER THE PAST
SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT HELPING. AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTH IT SHOULD MOVE INTO AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS SHEAR...WHICH
SHOULD IMPROVE ITS CHANCES OF BECOMING TROPICAL...AS WELL AS STRENGTHENING
SOME. BASED ON CONTINUITY...I AM NOT CHANGING THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT
THIS TIME...BUT IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO REFUSE TO STRENGTHEN IT IS
LIKELY THAT THE FORECAST WILL HAVE TO BE TRENDED DOWN.

AN ADDITIONAL POINT TO NOTE...ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...IF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE NEEDED LATER
TODAY FOR PARTS OF WEST KOMPA RU.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
 INITIAL... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 
21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT 
22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 
23/0900H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 21.2 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 19 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
1535 HPT.

FORECASTER NOLAN

TCTW01 FOLN 190940
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   SUB-TD SIX
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           20.8N 41.2E
ACCURACY:           50NM
MOVEMENT:           N 12KT
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           25KT
MAX GUST:           35KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     22.3N 41.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=
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