Difference between revisions of "TD04/06 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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|movement=North at 17 km/h}} | |movement=North at 17 km/h}} | ||
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| − | TCAD1 WHCO | + | TCAD1 WHCO 191530 |
| − | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY | + | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 4 |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
| − | + | 3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 | |
| − | + | ||
| − | ... | + | ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...REMAINS SUBTROPICAL... |
| − | + | SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO ST2.5 IN SOME CASES...WITH ONE | |
| − | + | LINGERING TROPICAL T1.5. SO...AS A COMPROMISE...WENT WITH 30 KNOTS. THE | |
| − | + | HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE CURRENTLY IN THE SYSTEM HAS REPORTED A | |
| − | 360/ | + | BORDERLINE WARM CORE...AND WITH THE CONVECTION STILL RELATIVELY DISPLACED |
| + | FROM THE CENTRE...I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT SUBTROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. | ||
| + | SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AGAIN...360/15. | ||
| + | |||
| + | THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO INITIATE TROPICAL | ||
| + | STORM WATCHES. A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO WAIT ANOTHER ADVISORY OR TWO TO JUDGE | ||
| + | IF THE FORECAST WOULD BE HELD FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL OR IF | ||
| + | IT WOULD BE TRENDED DOWN IN FUTURE FORECASTS...WHICH WOULD MAKE A TROPICAL | ||
| + | STORM WATCH FAIRLY USELESS. | ||
| + | |||
| + | IF THE FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS LIKELY | ||
| + | LATER TODAY FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION...AS WELL AS | ||
| + | ATOLLVILLE. | ||
INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR | INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR | ||
| Line 30: | Line 41: | ||
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. | ||
| − | AT | + | AT 3 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX |
| − | WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21. | + | WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST |
| − | ...ABOUT | + | ...ABOUT 740 KM...465 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. |
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY | SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY | ||
| − | PACE OF ABOUT | + | PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN |
| − | OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. | + | THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY |
| + | TURN POSSIBLE. | ||
| − | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...BUT |
| − | + | MOST OF THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE FELT AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. THERE ARE | |
| − | + | ALSO HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS | |
| − | + | POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY. | |
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. | THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. | ||
| − | CONVECTION | + | THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT...AND CONVECTION CONTINUES |
| − | + | TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTRE. A MODEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND SHEAR IS | |
| − | + | INHIBITING THE SYSTEM...BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT | |
| − | + | FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | + | THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. SUB-TD SIX WILL TRACK | |
| − | FORECAST | + | NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND IN THE MID TERM WILL START |
| − | + | AN EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ON | |
| + | TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM | ||
| + | IN 24 HOURS...AND THROUGH 48 HOURS. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION FROM THE | ||
| + | FORECAST TRACK WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION WOULD MEAN A WEAKER STORM. | ||
OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME...19/ | + | INITIAL TIME...19/1500H |
| − | INITIAL... 21. | + | INITIAL... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL <!-- 19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL --> |
| − | + | 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL <!-- 20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT --> | |
| − | + | 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE <!-- 20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT --> | |
| − | + | 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 25.3 N 41.9 E... 35 KT --> | |
| − | + | 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL <!-- 21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND --> | |
| − | + | 22/1500H...DISSIPATED | |
| − | 22/0900H... 27.1 N 42.7 E... 20 KT...REMNANT LOW INLAND | + | |
| − | + | ||
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 21.7 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED |
| − | WINDS NEAR | + | WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING |
| − | NORTHWARDS AT NEAR | + | NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. |
| − | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT |
| − | + | 9 PM HPT. | |
FORECASTER NOLAN | FORECASTER NOLAN | ||
---- | ---- | ||
| − | TCTW01 FOLN | + | TCTW01 FOLN 191530 |
| − | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | + | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING |
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 |
| − | + | ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 19 2146 | |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX | TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX | ||
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 4 |
| − | POSITION: | + | POSITION: 21.7N 41.2E |
| − | ACCURACY: | + | ACCURACY: 45NM |
| − | MOVEMENT: N | + | MOVEMENT: N 15KT |
CENT PRES: 1008HPA | CENT PRES: 1008HPA | ||
| − | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 30KT |
| − | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 40KT |
| − | FCST 12HR PSTN: 22. | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 22.9N 41.2E |
| − | FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL |
| − | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146 |
| + | REMARKS: WARNING NR 3 PSTN ERRONEOUS= | ||
Revision as of 08:29, 2 October 2007
|
ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
| Subtropical Depression Six | |
|---|---|
| Subtropical depression | |
| As of: | 2200 HPT June 18, 2146 |
| Location: | 20.4°N 41.3°E 1095 km (685 miles) south of Atollville, West Kompa Ru |
| Maximum winds: |
45 km/h (30 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 1008 hPa |
| Movement: | North at 17 km/h |
| Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD1 WHCO 191530 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 4 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY...REMAINS SUBTROPICAL... SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW UP TO ST2.5 IN SOME CASES...WITH ONE LINGERING TROPICAL T1.5. SO...AS A COMPROMISE...WENT WITH 30 KNOTS. THE HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE PLANE CURRENTLY IN THE SYSTEM HAS REPORTED A BORDERLINE WARM CORE...AND WITH THE CONVECTION STILL RELATIVELY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE...I HAVE OPTED TO KEEP IT SUBTROPICAL FOR THIS ADVISORY. SLIGHTLY FASTER MOTION AGAIN...360/15. THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT TO INITIATE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES. A DECISION WAS TAKEN TO WAIT ANOTHER ADVISORY OR TWO TO JUDGE IF THE FORECAST WOULD BE HELD FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO MAKE LANDFALL OR IF IT WOULD BE TRENDED DOWN IN FUTURE FORECASTS...WHICH WOULD MAKE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FAIRLY USELESS. IF THE FORECAST DOES NOT CHANGE...THEN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS LIKELY LATER TODAY FOR THE ISLANDS OF THE WEST TERRITORIAL UNION...AS WELL AS ATOLLVILLE. INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 3 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 41.2 EAST ...ABOUT 740 KM...465 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY PACE OF ABOUT 27 KM/H...17 MPH. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH A SLIGHT EASTERLY TURN POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...BUT MOST OF THESE STRONG WINDS WILL BE FELT AWAY FROM THE CENTRE. THERE ARE ALSO HIGHER GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS STRENGTHENED SOMEWHAT...AND CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE NEAR THE CENTRE. A MODEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS OF WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING THE SYSTEM...BUT SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NORTH. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. SUB-TD SIX WILL TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE...AND IN THE MID TERM WILL START AN EASTERLY TURN AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS. AT THIS TIME...WILL HOLD ON TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IN 24 HOURS...AND THROUGH 48 HOURS. OF COURSE...ANY DEVIATION FROM THE FORECAST TRACK WITH MORE LAND INTERACTION WOULD MEAN A WEAKER STORM. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/1500H INITIAL... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT...SE OF ATOLLVILLE 21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 21/1500H... 25.7 N 42.2 E... 35 KT...NEAR LANDFALL 22/1500H...DISSIPATED REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 21.7 NORTH 41.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM HPT. FORECASTER NOLAN
TCTW01 FOLN 191530 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 3:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 1500H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: SUB-TD SIX WARNING NR: 4 POSITION: 21.7N 41.2E ACCURACY: 45NM MOVEMENT: N 15KT CENT PRES: 1008HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 22.9N 41.2E FCST 12HR WINDS: 30KT G40KT...TROPICAL NEXT WARNING AT: 2100H JUNE 18 2146 REMARKS: WARNING NR 3 PSTN ERRONEOUS=
