TD04/06 (2146)

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TCAD1 WHCO 182210 CCA
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX SPECIAL ADVISORY 1
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME
...CORRECTED FORECAST...

...REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR REGENERATE INTO SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION...
...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING LAND...

AFTER CONSIDERABLE DISCUSSION IN THE OFFICE ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT
TO REINITIATE ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS UNDER WHAT NAME TO DO SO...
THE DECISION HAS BEEN MADE TO DECLARE THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOUR A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GIVE IT A NEW NUMBER.
THE SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATION IS BECAUSE A HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FOUND THE CENTRE TO BE NEAR 20.4N 41.3E...BUT
ITS MAIN CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTRE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A CONSERVATIVE 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOVEMENT IS
AROUND 360/09.

NO TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS OR WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT...BUT INTERESTS
IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 10 PM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
...ABOUT 1095 KM...683 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA.

THIS IS A TRICKY FORECAST. AFTER WHAT TD FOUR DID...I AM RATHER HESITANT
TO EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES FULLY TROPICAL STATUS.
TRACK FORECAST WISE...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS RATHER
STEADILY...AND IS ACTUALLY RATHER CLOSE TO OUR OLD FORECAST TRACK FOR TD
FOUR. HOWEVER...THE RIDGE BREAKING WE EXPECTED WITH TD FOUR HAS NOT HAPPENED.
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WILL THEREFORE TRACK STEADILY NORTHWARDS THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...AFTER WHICH IT IS ANYONE'S GUESS. THE MODELS...WHICH WERE RATHER
SPREAD OUT ON TD FOUR...APPEAR TO HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT FOR A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE MID-RANGE FORECAST...SO INTERESTS IN WEST AND EAST KOMPA
RU SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY. LATE IN THE FORECAST...A RATHER RAPID
WEAKENING IS FORECAST DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/2200H
 INITIAL... 20.4 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/0900H... 21.2 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/2100H... 22.3 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...BECOMING TROPICAL 
20/0900H... 23.4 N 41.3 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 
20/2100H... 24.4 N 41.5 E... 35 KT...EAST OF ATOLLVILLE 
21/2100H... 26.3 N 42.4 E... 30 KT...INLAND 
22/2100H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 10 PM POSITION... NEAR 20.4 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT.

FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN

TCTW01 FOLN 182210
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 10:10 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        2200H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   SUB-TD SIX
WARNING NR:         1
POSITION:           20.4N 41.3E
ACCURACY:           50NM
MOVEMENT:           N 17KM/H
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           25KT
MAX GUST:           35KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     21.2N 41.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 18 2146=