TD04/06 (2146)

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TCAD1 WHCO 190340
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY 2
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...DEPRESSION REMAINS NO THREAT TO LAND...

THERE ISN'T MUCH TO SAY ABOUT SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX. CONVECTION
REMAINS FAIRLY DISPLACED FROM THE CENTRE TO HOLD ON TO THE SUBTROPICAL
CLASSIFICATION. MOST INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE EITHER TOO WEAK...AN
ST1.5...AND THERE IS ALSO ONE TROPICAL T1.0. INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
HELD AT 25 KNOTS. INITIAL MOTION FOR NOW...355/09.

INTERESTS IN THE MAUVIDIAN SEA...INCLUDING WEST KOMPA RU...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTRE OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
WAS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 21.3 EAST
...ABOUT 1015 KM...635 MILES...SOUTH OF ATOLLVILLE. 

SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARDS AT A STEADY
PACE OF ABOUT 17 KM/H...11 MPH. THE CYCLONE WILL GAIN SOME FORWARD SPEED
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 KM/H...30 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG GUSTS WILL BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTRE OF THIS
STORM. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
DEPRESSION GAINS TROPICALITY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1008 HPA...29.77 INCHES.

THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THE OLD FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
THE DEPRESSION DID NOT STRENGTHEN AS EXPECTED. STILL...SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IS POSSIBLE AS IT GRADUALLY ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARDS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO. AFTER THAT...A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE EAST IS FORECAST BASED
ON AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS. NO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED...
ALTHOUGH LANDFALL AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST...THIS
MAY VERY EASILY NOT VERIFY.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
 INITIAL... 20.8 N 41.3 E... 25 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
19/1500H... 21.7 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...SUBTROPICAL 
20/0300H... 22.9 N 41.2 E... 30 KT...TROPICAL 
20/1500H... 24.0 N 41.4 E... 35 KT 
21/0300H... 24.8 N 41.7 E... 35 KT 
22/0300H... 26.7 N 42.5 E... 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND 
23/0300H...DISSIPATED

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 20.8 NORTH 41.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWARDS AT NEAR 17 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0935 HPT.

FORECASTER NOLAN/JARVINEN

TCTW01 FOLN 190340
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   SUB-TD SIX
WARNING NR:         2
POSITION:           20.8N 41.3E
ACCURACY:           50NM
MOVEMENT:           N 17KM/H
CENT PRES:          1008HPA
MAX WIND:           25KT
MAX GUST:           35KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     21.7N 41.2E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    30KT G40KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=