Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"
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|movement=West slowly}} | |movement=West slowly}} | ||
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− | TCAD5 WHCO 180930 | + | TCAD5 WHCO 180930 CCA |
− | TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 1 | + | TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 1...CORRECTED |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
9 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME | 9 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME | ||
+ | |||
+ | ...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME... | ||
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF INEPTIA... | ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF INEPTIA... | ||
Line 99: | Line 101: | ||
ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT. | ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT. | ||
− | FORECASTER | + | FORECASTER CALTS |
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TCTW05 FOLN 180925 | TCTW05 FOLN 180925 |
Revision as of 03:53, 16 September 2007
Tropical Depression Five | |
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Tropical depression | |
As of: | 0900 HPT June 18, 2146 |
Location: | 5.3°N 6.1°E 240 km (150 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia |
Maximum winds: |
55 km/h (35 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
Pressure: | 1001 hPa |
Movement: | West slowly |
Past advisories and discussions available here |
TCAD5 WHCO 180930 CCA TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE ADVISORY 1...CORRECTED HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 AM PAX TIME ...CORRECTED FORECASTER NAME... ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF INEPTIA... WE HAD ENOUGH INFORMATION AT 3 AM FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO POSSIBLY JUSTIFY DECLARING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FIVE...BUT WITH A LACK OF SCATT AND SATELLITE DATA...CHOSE NOT TO DO SO. THE FOLLOWING SCATTEROMETER PASS...AT ABOUT FIVE HOURS AGO...SHOWED A CLOSED CIRCULATION WITH SOME RAIN-MARRED 40 KNOT VECTORS. RECENT MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE A WELL-FORMED TROPICAL CYCLONE...WELL-FORMED FOR BEING THIS CLOSE TO LAND...JUST 130 KM SOUTH OF THE INEPTIAN COAST. DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...HAVE CONSERVATIVELY GONE FOR AN INITIAL WARNING STRENGTH OF JUST 30 KNOTS...MAKING THIS TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE. IT HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD THE PAST DAY OR SO...INITIAL MOVEMENT IS AT BEST 280/02. AT 9 AM...THE INEPTIAN GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LA PLAGE PROVINCE COAST WEST OF ST. DENIS...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT COAST EAST OF BERLITZ. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION... INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT 9 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS ESTIMATED TO BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 6.1 EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 KM... 150 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS MOVING WESTWARDS SLOWLY...WITH A SLIGHT NORTHWEST- WARD TURN EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL PARALLEL THE INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KM/H...35 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS QUITE NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AT ANY TIME. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1001 HPA...29.56 INCHES OF MERCURY. AREAS NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF INEPTIA WILL GET 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. NEAR THE COAST...MINOR STORM SURGE FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE EXPERIMENTAL HDCW CONEX. THE MAIN MODELS ALL AGREE ON A TRACK PARALLELING THE INEPTIAN COAST THROUGH 36 OR 48 HOURS...WITH ALMOST NO DEVIATIONS. ONE OR TWO OF THE MORE MINOR MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CONEX AND TAKE A MORE WESTWARD/WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS...LEADING TO A 72 HOUR POINT NEAR 7N/1E... WHICH IS PROBABLY TOO FAR SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEAKNESS OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET IN JUST AFTER 48 HOURS...LEADING TO A MORE NORTHWARD TURN. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS TO BE SAFE TO RULE CARITAS OUT OF ANY POSSIBLE HIT FROM THE EAST. DESPITE THE CYCLONE BEING RATHER CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AT THIS TIME...THE FORECAST DOES NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY MODELS ALL AGREE THAT COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND MODERATE TO HIGH WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS...WILL INHIBIT MOST CHANCES OF INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO LESSEN WEST OF 3 DEG E AND NORTH OF 7 DEG N...SO STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED ONCE THE SYSTEM CROSSES THE HIGH-SHEAR AREA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FORECAST OF 40 KNOTS IN THE HIGH-SHEAR ZONE MAY BE A BIT HIGH. IN THE LATER TERM...SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY NEAR 10 DEG N...ALLOWING FOR A HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING...AND SO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST AT THE 96 HOUR POINT...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...18/0900H INITIAL... 05.3 N 06.1 E... 30 KT 18/2100H... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 35 KT 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 35 KT 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 35 KT 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 65 KT REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.3 NORTH 6.1 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST SLOWLY. THERE WILL BE AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY ISSUED BY 1225 HPT...WITH THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY BY 1535 HPT. FORECASTER CALTS
TCTW05 FOLN 180925 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:25 AM HPT JUNE 18 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 18 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: TD FIVE WARNING NR: 1 POSITION: 5.3N 6.1E ACCURACY: 30NM MOVEMENT: W SLOWLY CENT PRES: 1001HPA MAX WIND: 30KT MAX GUST: 40KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 5.5N 5.4E FCST 12HR WINDS: 35KT G45KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 18 2146=