Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

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|movement=West-northwest}}
 
|movement=West-northwest}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCIA5 WHCO 190015
+
  TCAD5 WHCO 190320
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 4A
+
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 5
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
−
  12 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146... 10 PM PAX TIME
+
  3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  ...SMALL-SIZED STORM WEAKENS SLIGHTLY INTERACTING WITH LAND...
+
  ...KANTA CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST INEPTIA...
−
+
−
AT MIDNIGHT HPT...THE GOVERNMENT OF INEPTIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
+
−
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE LA PLAGE PROVINCE EAST OF 6 E TO
+
−
ST DENIS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF 4 E TO BERLITZ HAS
+
−
ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED...AND REPLACED BY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
 
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
 
  FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
 
  FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
 
  BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.
 
  BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT MIDNIGHT HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED
+
  AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WE LOWERED THE INTENSITY OF KANTA TO
−
  NEAR LATITUDE 5.6 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.2 EAST...ABOUT 485 KM...300 MI
+
35 KNOTS BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
−
  SOUTH OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA...AND ABOUT 195 KM...120 MI SOUTH OF THE
+
ESIMTATES...WHICH DECREASED LATE YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING.
−
LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.
+
SINCE THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
 +
STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A REPORT FROM THE LA PLAGE COAST
 +
WHICH RECENTLY CAME IN INDICATED A GUST TO ABOUT 43 KNOTS...SO IT
 +
APPEARS THAT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS...PENDING AN
 +
AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING...IS
 +
THE BEST CHOICE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX IS IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
 +
INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND NOW THE ESTIMATE IS
 +
290/12.
 +
 +
AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
 +
  LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.9 EAST...ABOUT 145 KM...90 MI SOUTH
 +
  OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.
 
   
 
   
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
 
  14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT  
 
  14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT  
−
  24 HOURS.  
+
  24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
 +
LIKELY.
 
   
 
   
−
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 65 KM/H...40 MPH...
+
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
−
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY TEMPORARY...AND
+
  THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
−
  KANTA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH THE NEXT
+
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
−
  24 HOURS.
+
  LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF INEPTIA...
 +
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM
+
BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE PASS MADE SHORTLY AFTER
−
THE CENTRE.
+
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE GROUND OBSERVATION WE RECEIVED
 +
FROM LA PLAGE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.
 +
  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS THE COAST...
 +
AND THEY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
+
  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
 
  INCHES OF MERCURY.
 
  INCHES OF MERCURY.
 
   
 
   
Line 52: Line 63:
 
  24 HOURS.
 
  24 HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 12 AM HPT POSITION...NEAR 5.6 N 5.2 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  THERE IS NO REASON FOR ME TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM
−
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. KANTA IS MOVING
+
  LAST TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
−
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H.
+
  BUT IF KANTA STARTS TO WEAKEN UNEXPECTEDLY...OR VICE-VERSA AND UNDERGOES
−
+
  RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
−
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
+
  THE REASONING. INTENSITY WISE...ALMOST ALL THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW
−
WITHIN THREE HOURS.
+
  STRENGTHEN A TUTT THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
−
+
  CENTRAL PRUDENTIA. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND
−
FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  A RATHER QUICKER WEAKENING THAN LAST ADVISORY IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.
−
 
+
−
----
+
−
TCAD5 WHCO 182120 CCC
+
−
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 4...CORRECTED
+
−
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
+
−
9 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 7 PM PAX TIME
+
−
...CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY...
+
−
...CORRECTED FORECAST...
+
−
  ...CORRECTED ISSUANCE TIME...
+
−
+
−
...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON MEANDERING OFF SW INEPTIA...
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1900
+
−
BASED ON DATA WE HAD FROM THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...WHICH
+
−
SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY OF 38-39 KNOTS. THE PLANE HAS SINCE LEFT THE
+
−
STORM...AND ANOTHER ONE WILL BE IN TO INVESTIGATE IT EARLY TOMORROW
+
−
MORNING. SINCE IT HAS ONLY BEEN TWO HOURS SINCE THE PREVIOUS
+
−
ADVISORY AND THERE HAS BEEN NO OBVIOUS CHANGE IN THE CYCLONE...THE
+
−
  WARNING INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
+
−
BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
+
−
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
+
−
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF
+
−
THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
+
−
+
−
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA WEST OF BERLITZ SHOULD
+
−
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
+
−
+
−
REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
+
−
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.
+
−
   
+
−
AT 9 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
+
−
  LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...
+
−
260 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
+
−
  8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
+
−
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
+
−
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
+
−
INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
+
−
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
+
−
A SLIGHT TEMPORARY WEAKENING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE
+
−
  STORM CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LAND.
+
−
+
−
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM
+
−
THE CENTRE.
+
−
+
−
THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
+
−
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.
+
−
+
−
AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
−
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
+
−
24 HOURS.
+
−
+
−
THE STORM REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED AS IT
+
−
WAS. THEREFORE...AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LAST FORECAST.
+
−
SOME MODELS NOW SHOWING SHEAR RELAXING EARLIER THAN FORECAST...IN ABOUT
+
−
12 HOURS...SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH SUCH A COMPACT SYSTEM...
+
−
THE SYSTEM COULD START TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
+
−
BASED ON CONTINUITY THERE IS ALSO NO CHANGE TO THE LAST INTENSITY FORECAST...
+
−
WHICH HOLDS THE CYCLONE AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A GRADUAL
+
−
  STRENGTHENING AFTER. A HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS
+
−
NOT REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST AS KANTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR 14N UNDER
+
−
THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS
+
−
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME...18/2100H
+
  INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
−
   INITIAL... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/0300H... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 40 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT <!-- 19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT -->
−
19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT -->
+
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT -->
−
19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT <!-- 20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT -->
+
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT -->
−
20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT -->
+
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT -->
−
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT    
+
21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT    
−
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT     21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT -->
+
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT     21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT -->
−
21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 60 KT <!-- 22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 60 KT    
+
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT <!-- 22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT    
−
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 65 KT     22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 65 KT -->
+
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT     22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT -->
−
22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 60 KT
+
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.5 NORTH 5.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.7 NORTH 4.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
−
  WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
+
  WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
−
  WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H.
+
  NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
−
  WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0030 HPT.
+
  0935 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0630 HPT.
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER JARVIS/RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER RINDLI
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW05 FOLN 182120
+
  TCTW05 FOLN 190320
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED 9:20 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
+
  ISSUED 3:20 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 18 2146
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
−
  WARNING NR:        4
+
  WARNING NR:        5
−
  POSITION:          5.5N 5.3E
+
  POSITION:          5.7N 4.9E
 
  ACCURACY:          20NM
 
  ACCURACY:          20NM
−
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 07KT XTRP
+
  MOVEMENT:          NW 12KT
 
  CENT PRES:          995HPA
 
  CENT PRES:          995HPA
−
  MAX WIND:          40KT
+
  MAX WIND:          35KT
−
  MAX GUST:          50KT
+
  MAX GUST:          45KT
−
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.0N 4.5E
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.3N 4.0E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=

Revision as of 12:40, 27 September 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Kanta
Tropical storm
As of: 2100 HPT June 18, 2146
Location: 5.5°N 5.4°E
420 km (260 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia
Maximum
winds: 		75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 995 hPa
Movement: West-northwest
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD5 WHCO 190320
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 5
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST INEPTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.

AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WE LOWERED THE INTENSITY OF KANTA TO
35 KNOTS BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESIMTATES...WHICH DECREASED LATE YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING.
SINCE THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A REPORT FROM THE LA PLAGE COAST
WHICH RECENTLY CAME IN INDICATED A GUST TO ABOUT 43 KNOTS...SO IT
APPEARS THAT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS...PENDING AN
AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING...IS
THE BEST CHOICE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX IS IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND NOW THE ESTIMATE IS
290/12.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.9 EAST...ABOUT 145 KM...90 MI SOUTH
OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF INEPTIA...
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.

BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE PASS MADE SHORTLY AFTER
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE GROUND OBSERVATION WE RECEIVED
FROM LA PLAGE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS THE COAST...
AND THEY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THERE IS NO REASON FOR ME TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM
LAST TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
BUT IF KANTA STARTS TO WEAKEN UNEXPECTEDLY...OR VICE-VERSA AND UNDERGOES
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
THE REASONING. INTENSITY WISE...ALMOST ALL THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW
STRENGTHEN A TUTT THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
CENTRAL PRUDENTIA. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND
A RATHER QUICKER WEAKENING THAN LAST ADVISORY IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
 INITIAL... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT 
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT 
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.7 NORTH 4.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
0935 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0630 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 190320
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:20 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           5.7N 4.9E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 12KT
CENT PRES:          995HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.3N 4.0E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=
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