Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

Revision as of 00:51, 28 September 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCIA5 WHCO 190605
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 5A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
6 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH AS IT PARALLELS THE INEPTIAN
COAST...

AT 6 AM...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ 
EASTWARDS TO THE LA PLAGE COAST AT 6 DEG E. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

AT 6 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 5.8 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.7 EAST...ABOUT 130 KM OR 80 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
IS 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED A TOTAL OF 60 MM OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS.

NOTE...A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WHICH ENTERED THE STORM ABOUT AN HOUR
AGO IS STILL IN THE STORM AND INVESTIGATING IT. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
SO FAR ARE IN THE MID- TO HIGH- 40S /KNOTS/ RANGE. THE PLANE REPORTED
SURFACE WINDS OF 37 KNOTS OVER LAND NEAR THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCIAL BORDER...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1001 HPA. SINCE THEN
THE PRESSURES HAVE STARTED TO FALL...WITH THE LATEST REPORT OF 995 HPA.
BY THE NEXT FULL ADVISORY PACKAGE...WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF
THE STORM'S STRUCTURE AND ITS INTENSITY.

REPEATING THE 6 AM HPT POSITION...NEAR 5.8 N 4.7 E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. KANTA IS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AT 22 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
BY 0935 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCAD5 WHCO 190320
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 5
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA CONTINUES TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST INEPTIA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF INEPTIA
FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT EAST OF 4 DEG E AND FOR LA PLAGE WEST OF 6 DEG E.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR CÔTE D'ARGENT FROM
BERLITZ SOUTHWARDS TO THE COAST ALONG 4 DEG E.

AT THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WE LOWERED THE INTENSITY OF KANTA TO
35 KNOTS BASED ON GROUND REPORTS AS WELL AS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESIMTATES...WHICH DECREASED LATE YESTERDAY AND INTO THIS MORNING.
SINCE THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE
STORM HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH. A REPORT FROM THE LA PLAGE COAST
WHICH RECENTLY CAME IN INDICATED A GUST TO ABOUT 43 KNOTS...SO IT
APPEARS THAT HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 35 KNOTS...PENDING AN
AFLE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT INTO THE STORM LATER THIS MORNING...IS
THE BEST CHOICE. THE RECONNAISSANCE FIX IS IN ABOUT TWO HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY...AND NOW THE ESTIMATE IS
290/12.

AT 3 AM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 5.7 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.9 EAST...ABOUT 145 KM...90 MI SOUTH
OF THE LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT BORDER.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 22 KM/H...
14 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM THIS FORECAST TRACK IS
LIKELY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KM/H...40 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR INTENSITY THROUGH
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME MINOR STRENGTHENING
LATER THIS MORNING. AS THE STORM MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST OF INEPTIA...
THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING.

BASED ON THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE PASS MADE SHORTLY AFTER
THE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE GROUND OBSERVATION WE RECEIVED
FROM LA PLAGE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD SLIGHTLY.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BEING FELT ACROSS THE COAST...
AND THEY EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 170 KM...105 MILES FROM THE CENTRE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38
INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THERE IS NO REASON FOR ME TO MAKE ANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FROM
LAST TIME. THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...
BUT IF KANTA STARTS TO WEAKEN UNEXPECTEDLY...OR VICE-VERSA AND UNDERGOES
RAPID INTENSIFICATION...THERE WOULD PROBABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN
THE REASONING. INTENSITY WISE...ALMOST ALL THE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY NOW
STRENGTHEN A TUTT THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF
CENTRAL PRUDENTIA. THEREFORE...A HURRICANE IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...AND
A RATHER QUICKER WEAKENING THAN LAST ADVISORY IS SHOWN IN THIS FORECAST.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0300H
 INITIAL... 05.7 N 04.9 E... 35 KT 
19/1500H... 06.3 N 04.0 E... 40 KT 
20/0300H... 06.9 N 02.9 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.8 E... 50 KT 
21/0300H... 08.8 N 00.5 E... 55 KT 
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT 
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT

REPEATING THE 3 AM POSITION... NEAR 5.7 NORTH 4.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 65 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT NEAR 2 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY
0935 HPT WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 0630 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 190320
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:20 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0300H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         5
POSITION:           5.7N 4.9E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           NW 12KT
CENT PRES:          995HPA
MAX WIND:           35KT
MAX GUST:           45KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.3N 4.0E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0900H JUNE 18 2146=