Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"
From NSwiki, the NationStates encyclopedia.
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| − | + | TCAD5 WHCO 190945 | |
| − | TROPICAL STORM KANTA | + | TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 6 |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
| − | + | 9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 | |
| − | ...KANTA | + | ...KANTA STRENGTHENS AS IT STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM INEPTIAN COAST... |
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| − | AT | + | AT 9 AM HPT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LA PLAGE PROVINCE IS |
| − | + | DISCONTINUED. | |
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| − | + | A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO | |
| − | + | THE LA PLAGE PROVINCIAL BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT | |
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 | |
| + | HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. | ||
| − | + | ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. | |
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| − | MAXIMUM | + | THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KANTA HAS FOUND |
| − | + | A RELATIVELY STRONGER TROPICAL STORM THAN EXPECTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT | |
| − | THE | + | LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KNOTS...IGNORING ONE 61 KT QUESTIONABLE REPORT... |
| − | + | WHILE A SONDE OB CAME BACK AT 44 KNOTS. SO...INITIAL INTENSITY IS | |
| + | UPPED TO 45 KNOTS...RATHER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE AIRPLANE ALSO | ||
| + | FOUND THAT THE WIND RADIUS OF 34 KNOT WINDS WAS RATHER LARGE...WHICH | ||
| + | WAS A SURPRISE...GIVEN THE APPARENT SIZE OF THE STORM ON SATELLITE. | ||
| + | THEREFORE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. | ||
| + | A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS ALSO BECOME APPARENT...AND INITIAL MOTION | ||
| + | IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/15. | ||
| − | TROPICAL STORM | + | AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY |
| − | + | THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH LONGITUDE | |
| + | 4.4 EAST...ABOUT 210 KM OR 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PROVINCIAL | ||
| + | BORDER AT LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT. | ||
| − | THE | + | TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H... |
| − | IS | + | 17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT |
| + | 24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG. | ||
| − | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. | |
| − | + | OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING | |
| − | + | EXISTS. | |
| − | + | THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM NINE HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVED RIGHT AS THE | |
| − | + | RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL | |
| − | + | STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM THE | |
| − | + | CENTRE. | |
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| − | + | ||
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| − | + | THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE | |
| − | + | WAS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | THE | + | AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT |
| − | + | PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT | |
| + | 24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED ABOUT 60 MM...2.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST | ||
| + | 24 HOURS. | ||
| − | + | SINCE THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY GAINED QUITE A BIT OF STRENGTH IT IS TIME | |
| − | + | TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME FURTHER | |
| − | - | + | RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH |
| − | + | WOULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK FORECAST FURTHER. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS | |
| − | + | FORECAST TO THE LEFT/SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD ONE...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING | |
| − | + | COULD MEAN THE STORM BREAKING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVING ON A MORE | |
| − | + | WESTERLY TRACK. | |
| − | ...KANTA | + | AS THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PRUDENTIA BREAKS...NO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE |
| + | TERM AND THE STORM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWARD. A TUTT IS THEN FORECAST | ||
| + | BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP...AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUTFLOW | ||
| + | AND WEAKEN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THESE MODELS | ||
| + | SHOW ENOUGH OF A LACK OF STEERING CURRENTS BY THEN...FOR KANTA TO EXECUTE | ||
| + | A SLOW 360-DEGREE LOOP. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FOR | ||
| + | NOW...IN THE OUTLOOK...WILL SHIFT WEAKENING STORM TOWARDS THE GRAYS HARBOR | ||
| + | COAST. | ||
| − | + | INTENSITY WISE... WILL KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SHORT RUN...WITH | |
| − | + | STRENGTHENING TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 OR 72 HOURS. I DO NOT | |
| − | + | HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO BECOME A | |
| − | + | HURRICANE...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY BE CLEARER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST | |
| − | + | 72 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE | |
| − | + | EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. | |
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| − | + | IF THE CURRENT MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES...ALL TROPICAL STORM | |
| − | + | WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT. | |
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OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME...19/ | + | INITIAL TIME...19/0900H |
| − | INITIAL... | + | INITIAL... 06.0 N 04.4 E... 45 KT <!-- 19/1500H... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT --> |
| − | 19/ | + | 19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT --> |
| − | + | 20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT --> | |
| − | + | 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT --> | |
| − | + | 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT | |
| − | + | 21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT 22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT --> | |
| − | + | 22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT <!-- 22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT | |
| − | + | 22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT 23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT --> | |
| − | + | 23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT | |
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 6.0 NORTH 4.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED |
| − | WINDS NEAR | + | WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING |
| − | NORTHWEST AT NEAR | + | WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H. |
| − | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM |
| − | + | WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT. | |
FORECASTER RINDLI | FORECASTER RINDLI | ||
---- | ---- | ||
| − | TCTW05 FOLN | + | TCTW05 FOLN 190940 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 19 2146 |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA | TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA | ||
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 6 |
| − | POSITION: | + | POSITION: 6.0N 4.4E |
ACCURACY: 20NM | ACCURACY: 20NM | ||
| − | MOVEMENT: | + | MOVEMENT: WNW 15KT |
| − | CENT PRES: | + | CENT PRES: 993HPA |
| − | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 45KT |
| − | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 55KT |
| − | FCST 12HR PSTN: 6. | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.4N 3.3E |
| − | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 45KT G55KT |
| − | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 18 2146= |
Revision as of 08:06, 29 September 2007
|
ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
| Tropical Storm Kanta | |
|---|---|
| Tropical storm | |
| As of: | 2100 HPT June 18, 2146 |
| Location: | 5.5°N 5.4°E 420 km (260 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia |
| Maximum winds: |
75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained) |
| Pressure: | 995 hPa |
| Movement: | West-northwest |
| Past advisories and discussions available here | |
TCAD5 WHCO 190945 TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 6 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...KANTA STRENGTHENS AS IT STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM INEPTIAN COAST... AT 9 AM HPT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LA PLAGE PROVINCE IS DISCONTINUED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO THE LA PLAGE PROVINCIAL BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KANTA HAS FOUND A RELATIVELY STRONGER TROPICAL STORM THAN EXPECTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KNOTS...IGNORING ONE 61 KT QUESTIONABLE REPORT... WHILE A SONDE OB CAME BACK AT 44 KNOTS. SO...INITIAL INTENSITY IS UPPED TO 45 KNOTS...RATHER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE AIRPLANE ALSO FOUND THAT THE WIND RADIUS OF 34 KNOT WINDS WAS RATHER LARGE...WHICH WAS A SURPRISE...GIVEN THE APPARENT SIZE OF THE STORM ON SATELLITE. THEREFORE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS ALSO BECOME APPARENT...AND INITIAL MOTION IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/15. AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.4 EAST...ABOUT 210 KM OR 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PROVINCIAL BORDER AT LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT. TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H... 17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING EXISTS. THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM NINE HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVED RIGHT AS THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM THE CENTRE. THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY. AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED ABOUT 60 MM...2.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SINCE THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY GAINED QUITE A BIT OF STRENGTH IT IS TIME TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME FURTHER RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK FORECAST FURTHER. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO THE LEFT/SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD ONE...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING COULD MEAN THE STORM BREAKING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. AS THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PRUDENTIA BREAKS...NO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE TERM AND THE STORM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWARD. A TUTT IS THEN FORECAST BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP...AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUTFLOW AND WEAKEN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THESE MODELS SHOW ENOUGH OF A LACK OF STEERING CURRENTS BY THEN...FOR KANTA TO EXECUTE A SLOW 360-DEGREE LOOP. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FOR NOW...IN THE OUTLOOK...WILL SHIFT WEAKENING STORM TOWARDS THE GRAYS HARBOR COAST. INTENSITY WISE... WILL KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SHORT RUN...WITH STRENGTHENING TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 OR 72 HOURS. I DO NOT HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO BECOME A HURRICANE...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY BE CLEARER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST 72 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. IF THE CURRENT MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/0900H INITIAL... 06.0 N 04.4 E... 45 KT 19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT 20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT 23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 6.0 NORTH 4.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT. FORECASTER RINDLI
TCTW05 FOLN 190940 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 0900H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA WARNING NR: 6 POSITION: 6.0N 4.4E ACCURACY: 20NM MOVEMENT: WNW 15KT CENT PRES: 993HPA MAX WIND: 45KT MAX GUST: 55KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.4N 3.3E FCST 12HR WINDS: 45KT G55KT NEXT WARNING AT: 1500H JUNE 18 2146=
