Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCIA5 WHCO 191215
TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6A
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
12 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN KANTA AS IT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM
INEPTIAN COAST...
...PORTIONS OF THE COAST STILL RECEIVING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT
COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS. THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED
LATER TODAY.

AT 12 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 6.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.2 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MI SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF
MERCURY.

RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF CÔTE D'ARGENT
COULD BE NEAR TWO INCHES.

OTHER REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS...

ST. DENIS...................65MM...2.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
BORDER WITH CÔTE D'ARGENT...55MM...2.2IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
BERLITZ.....................15MM...0.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY

REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.1 NORTH 4.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. TROPICAL STORM KANTA
IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
AT 3 PM HPT.

FORECASTER JOHNSON

TCAD5 WHCO 190945
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 6
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA STRENGTHENS AS IT STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM INEPTIAN COAST...

AT 9 AM HPT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LA PLAGE PROVINCE IS
DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO
THE LA PLAGE PROVINCIAL BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.

ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.

THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KANTA HAS FOUND
A RELATIVELY STRONGER TROPICAL STORM THAN EXPECTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KNOTS...IGNORING ONE 61 KT QUESTIONABLE REPORT...
WHILE A SONDE OB CAME BACK AT 44 KNOTS. SO...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UPPED TO 45 KNOTS...RATHER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE AIRPLANE ALSO
FOUND THAT THE WIND RADIUS OF 34 KNOT WINDS WAS RATHER LARGE...WHICH
WAS A SURPRISE...GIVEN THE APPARENT SIZE OF THE STORM ON SATELLITE.
THEREFORE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS ALSO BECOME APPARENT...AND INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/15.

AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH LONGITUDE
4.4 EAST...ABOUT 210 KM OR 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PROVINCIAL
BORDER AT LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM NINE HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVED RIGHT AS THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM THE
CENTRE.

THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED ABOUT 60 MM...2.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST
24 HOURS.

SINCE THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY GAINED QUITE A BIT OF STRENGTH IT IS TIME
TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME FURTHER
RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH 
WOULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK FORECAST FURTHER. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TO THE LEFT/SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD ONE...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING
COULD MEAN THE STORM BREAKING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVING ON A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK.

AS THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PRUDENTIA BREAKS...NO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE
TERM AND THE STORM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWARD. A TUTT IS THEN FORECAST
BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP...AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUTFLOW
AND WEAKEN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THESE MODELS
SHOW ENOUGH OF A LACK OF STEERING CURRENTS BY THEN...FOR KANTA TO EXECUTE 
A SLOW 360-DEGREE LOOP. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FOR
NOW...IN THE OUTLOOK...WILL SHIFT WEAKENING STORM TOWARDS THE GRAYS HARBOR
COAST.

INTENSITY WISE... WILL KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SHORT RUN...WITH
STRENGTHENING TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 OR 72 HOURS. I DO NOT
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO BECOME A
HURRICANE...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY BE CLEARER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST
72 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

IF THE CURRENT MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES...ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
 INITIAL... 06.0 N 04.4 E... 45 KT 
19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT 
20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT 
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT 
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT 
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT 
23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT

REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 6.0 NORTH 4.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT.

FORECASTER RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 190940
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         6
POSITION:           6.0N 4.4E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 15KT
CENT PRES:          993HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           55KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.4N 3.3E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=