Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

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|movement=West-northwest}}
 
|movement=West-northwest}}
 
----
 
----
−
  TCIA5 WHCO 191215
+
  TCAD5 WHCO 191520
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY 6A
+
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 7
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
 
  HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
−
  12 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
 
   
 
   
−
  ...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IN KANTA AS IT CONTINUES MOVING AWAY FROM
+
  ...EFFECTS OF KANTA GRADUALLY DYING DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA...
−
INEPTIAN COAST...
+
−
...PORTIONS OF THE COAST STILL RECEIVING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
+
 
   
 
   
−
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
−
COAST FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS. THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED
+
WINDS...AND SOME RAIN...NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT.
−
  LATER TODAY.
+
  HOWEVER...THESE WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 12 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR
+
  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EAST TO THE
−
  LATITUDE 6.1 NORTH LONGITUDE 4.2 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MI SOUTH-
+
  PROVINCIAL BORDER WITH LA PLAGE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
−
  SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.
+
  IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FINAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM PASS.
 
   
 
   
−
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
+
  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
−
  17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT
+
  ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.5 FROM AFLE...T3.0/3.0 FROM HDCW...AND NO APPARENT
−
24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE WEST.
+
  CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WHEN THE
−
+
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS
−
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
+
  SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...295/15 BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE NEXT...AND FINAL...
−
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
+
  RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED...FOR NOW...INTO KANTA IS CURRENTLY
−
EXISTS.
+
  EN ROUTE. THE PLANE'S MAIN AIM WILL BE TO DETERMINE WIND RADII...SO
−
+
  AS SOON AS A FAVOURABLE REPORT IS RETURNED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
−
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM
+
  FOR INEPTIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED.
−
THE CENTRE.
+
−
+
−
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF
+
−
MERCURY.
+
−
+
−
RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
−
COULD BE NEAR TWO INCHES.
+
−
+
−
OTHER REPORTED RAINFALL TOTALS...
+
−
+
−
ST. DENIS...................65MM...2.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
+
−
BORDER WITH CÔTE D'ARGENT...55MM...2.2IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
+
−
BERLITZ.....................15MM...0.6IN IN 24 HOURS UP TO 9 AM HPT TODAY
+
−
+
−
REPEATING THE 12 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.1 NORTH 4.2 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
−
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. TROPICAL STORM KANTA
+
−
IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
+
−
+
−
THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY
+
−
AT 3 PM HPT.
+
−
+
−
FORECASTER JOHNSON
+
−
+
−
----
+
−
TCAD5 WHCO 190945
+
−
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 6
+
−
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
+
−
9 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
−
+
−
...KANTA STRENGTHENS AS IT STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FROM INEPTIAN COAST...
+
−
   
+
−
AT 9 AM HPT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LA PLAGE PROVINCE IS
+
−
  DISCONTINUED.
+
−
+
−
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO
+
−
  THE LA PLAGE PROVINCIAL BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
+
−
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
+
−
HOURS...OR ARE ALREADY OCCURRING.
+
−
+
−
ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...THE WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
+
−
   
+
−
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING KANTA HAS FOUND
+
−
A RELATIVELY STRONGER TROPICAL STORM THAN EXPECTED. MAXIMUM FLIGHT
+
−
LEVEL WINDS WERE 56 KNOTS...IGNORING ONE 61 KT QUESTIONABLE REPORT...
+
−
WHILE A SONDE OB CAME BACK AT 44 KNOTS. SO...INITIAL INTENSITY IS
+
−
  UPPED TO 45 KNOTS...RATHER EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE AIRPLANE ALSO
+
−
FOUND THAT THE WIND RADIUS OF 34 KNOT WINDS WAS RATHER LARGE...WHICH
+
−
  WAS A SURPRISE...GIVEN THE APPARENT SIZE OF THE STORM ON SATELLITE.
+
−
  THEREFORE WIND RADII HAVE ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
+
−
A SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG HAS ALSO BECOME APPARENT...AND INITIAL MOTION
+
−
IS NOW A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/15.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AT 9 AM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
+
  AT 3 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
−
  THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.0 NORTH LONGITUDE
+
  THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH LONGITUDE
−
  4.4 EAST...ABOUT 210 KM OR 130 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE PROVINCIAL
+
  3.9 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.
−
BORDER AT LA PLAGE/CÔTE D'ARGENT.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
 
  TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
 
  17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT  
 
  17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT  
−
  24 HOURS...WITH A POSSIBLE SLIGHT WESTWARD JOG.
+
  24 HOURS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE.
 
   
 
   
 
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
 
  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
Line 102: Line 48:
 
  EXISTS.
 
  EXISTS.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM NINE HOURS AGO HAS BEEN PROVED RIGHT AS THE
+
  THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS
−
  RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS FOUND A SLIGHTLY LARGER WIND FIELD. TROPICAL
+
  IS NOW MUCH MORE TIGHT. THIS MAY MEAN A REDUCTION IN WIND RADII...AND
−
  STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM THE
+
  THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO FIND OUT. PROVISIONALLY...
−
  CENTRE.
+
USING THE LATEST SCATT PASS THAT CAPTURED THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF THE
 +
STORM...WHICH SHOW SOME BELIEVABLE 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE INEPTIAN
 +
  COAST...WILL HOLD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII AS SOME OF THE STRONGER
 +
WINDS OVER THE COAST MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED...OR RAIN MARRED.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
+
  TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM
−
WAS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.
+
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.
 
   
 
   
−
  AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
+
  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.
−
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
+
−
24 HOURS. ST. DENIS REPORTED ABOUT 60 MM...2.4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST
+
−
24 HOURS.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  SINCE THE STORM HAS APPARENTLY GAINED QUITE A BIT OF STRENGTH IT IS TIME
+
  THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST TRACK. SHOULD
−
TO LOOK AT THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM. SOME FURTHER
+
  THE STORM STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE NEXT ADVISORY...A MORE WESTWARD
−
  RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WHICH
+
  MOTION...AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...MAY BE IN STORE.
−
  WOULD COMPLICATE THE TRACK FORECAST FURTHER. I HAVE ADJUSTED THE PREVIOUS
+
−
FORECAST TO THE LEFT/SOUTHWEST OF THE OLD ONE...AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING
+
−
COULD MEAN THE STORM BREAKING FROM THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVING ON A MORE
+
−
WESTERLY TRACK.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  AS THE RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL PRUDENTIA BREAKS...NO CHANGE IN THE MIDDLE
+
  SOME MODELS STILL HAVE KANTA...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT BY THEN IF IT
−
TERM AND THE STORM WILL START TO TRACK NORTHWARD. A TUTT IS THEN FORECAST
+
  WEAKENS ENOUGH...EXECUTING AN ANTICLOCKWISE 360 DEGREE LOOP NEAR 15N. THIS
−
  BY ALL MODELS TO DEVELOP...AND STRENGTHEN...WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF OUTFLOW
+
  WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
−
AND WEAKEN THE STORM CONSIDERABLY. INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THESE MODELS
+
−
SHOW ENOUGH OF A LACK OF STEERING CURRENTS BY THEN...FOR KANTA TO EXECUTE
+
−
A SLOW 360-DEGREE LOOP. IT WILL BE WATCHED FOR IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. FOR
+
−
  NOW...IN THE OUTLOOK...WILL SHIFT WEAKENING STORM TOWARDS THE GRAYS HARBOR
+
−
COAST.
+
 
   
 
   
−
  INTENSITY WISE... WILL KEEP TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN SHORT RUN...WITH
+
  STILL...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST
−
STRENGTHENING TO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 OR 72 HOURS. I DO NOT
+
  A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST 48 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
−
  HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT THE STORM WILL STRENGTHEN ENOUGH TO BECOME A
+
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
−
HURRICANE...BUT FUTURE FORECASTS MAY BE CLEARER. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST
+
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
−
72 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
+
−
EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.
+
−
+
−
IF THE CURRENT MORE WESTWARD MOVEMENT CONTINUES...ALL TROPICAL STORM
+
−
WARNINGS COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY TONIGHT.
+
 
   
 
   
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
 
  OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
−
  INITIAL TIME...19/0900H
+
  INITIAL TIME...19/1500H
−
   INITIAL... 06.0 N 04.4 E... 45 KT <!-- 19/1500H... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT -->
+
   INITIAL... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT <!-- 19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT -->
−
19/2100H... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT -->
+
20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT -->
−
20/0900H... 07.1 N 02.1 E... 45 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT -->
+
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT <!-- 20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT -->
−
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.1 E... 50 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT -->
+
21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT -->
−
21/0900H... 09.3 N 00.2 E... 55 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT    
+
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT <!-- 21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT    
−
21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 55 KT     22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT -->
+
22/0300H... 11.6 N 00.5 W... 55 KT     22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT -->
−
22/0900H... 12.3 N 00.8 W... 50 KT <!-- 22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT    
+
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT <!-- 22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT       
−
22/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 45 KT      23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT -->
+
23/0300H... 14.5 N 00.4 W... 40 KT      23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT -->
−
  23/0900H... 15.0 N 00.3 E... 35 KT
+
  23/1500H... 15.6 N 00.6 E... 30 KT
 
   
 
   
−
  REPEATING THE 9 AM POSITION... NEAR 6.0 NORTH 4.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
+
  REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.2 NORTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
 
  WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 
  WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
 
  WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.
 
   
 
   
−
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 PM
+
  THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM
−
  WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT.
+
  HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 630 PM HPT...BUT IF WARNINGS ARE
 +
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...THE WARNING CANCELLATION WILL SUPERSEDE THE INTERMEDIATE
 +
ADVISORY.  
 
   
 
   
−
  FORECASTER RINDLI
+
  FORECASTER JOHNSON
 
----
 
----
−
  TCTW05 FOLN 190940
+
  TCTW05 FOLN 191520
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
 
  LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
−
  ISSUED 9:40 AM HPT JUNE 19 2146
+
  ISSUED 3:20 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
−
  ACTIVE TIME:        0900H JUNE 19 2146
+
  ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 19 2146
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  WARNING CENTRE:    FOLENISA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
 
  TROPICAL CYCLONE:  KANTA
−
  WARNING NR:        6
+
  WARNING NR:        7
−
  POSITION:          6.0N 4.4E
+
  POSITION:          6.2N 3.9E
 
  ACCURACY:          20NM
 
  ACCURACY:          20NM
 
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 15KT
 
  MOVEMENT:          WNW 15KT
Line 177: Line 111:
 
  MAX WIND:          45KT
 
  MAX WIND:          45KT
 
  MAX GUST:          55KT
 
  MAX GUST:          55KT
−
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.4N 3.3E
+
  FCST 12HR PSTN:    6.8N 2.7E
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
 
  FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
−
  NEXT WARNING AT:    1500H JUNE 18 2146=
+
  NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146=

Revision as of 08:04, 2 October 2007

50px-Nuvola_apps_important.svg.png ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.
Latest storm information
Tropical Storm Kanta
Tropical storm
As of: 2100 HPT June 18, 2146
Location: 5.5°N 5.4°E
420 km (260 miles) west of St. Denis, Ineptia
Maximum
winds: 		75 km/h (45 mph) (1-minute sustained)
Pressure: 995 hPa
Movement: West-northwest
Past advisories and discussions available here 
TCAD5 WHCO 191520
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 7
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
3 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...EFFECTS OF KANTA GRADUALLY DYING DOWN OVER SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA...

TROPICAL STORM KANTA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND SOME RAIN...NEAR THE COAST IN EXTREME EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT.
HOWEVER...THESE WILL LESSEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM BERLITZ EAST TO THE
PROVINCIAL BORDER WITH LA PLAGE. THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE FINAL EFFECTS OF THE STORM PASS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/3.5 FROM AFLE...T3.0/3.0 FROM HDCW...AND NO APPARENT
CHANGE IN SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY WHEN THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 45 KNOT WINDS. INITIAL MOTION REMAINS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...295/15 BASED ON CONTINUITY. THE NEXT...AND FINAL...
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT SCHEDULED...FOR NOW...INTO KANTA IS CURRENTLY
EN ROUTE. THE PLANE'S MAIN AIM WILL BE TO DETERMINE WIND RADII...SO
AS SOON AS A FAVOURABLE REPORT IS RETURNED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR INEPTIA WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED.

AT 3 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS REPORTED BY
THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 6.2 NORTH LONGITUDE
3.9 EAST...ABOUT 450 KM OR 280 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PEACETOWN INEPTIA.

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 27 KM/H...
17 MPH. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 
24 HOURS...AND A MORE NORTHWARD TURN IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 KM/H...50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING
EXISTS.

THE STORM APPEARS TO HAVE CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTIVE MASS
IS NOW MUCH MORE TIGHT. THIS MAY MEAN A REDUCTION IN WIND RADII...AND
THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO FIND OUT. PROVISIONALLY...
USING THE LATEST SCATT PASS THAT CAPTURED THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF THE
STORM...WHICH SHOW SOME BELIEVABLE 30 KNOT WIND VECTORS NEAR THE INEPTIAN
COAST...WILL HOLD TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII AS SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS OVER THE COAST MAY HAVE BEEN MISSED...OR RAIN MARRED.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 195 KM...120 MILES...FROM 
THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 HPA...29.32 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THERE ARE NO CHANGES BEING MADE AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST TRACK. SHOULD
THE STORM STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE NEXT ADVISORY...A MORE WESTWARD
MOTION...AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST...MAY BE IN STORE.

SOME MODELS STILL HAVE KANTA...OR WHATEVER IS LEFT OF IT BY THEN IF IT
WEAKENS ENOUGH...EXECUTING AN ANTICLOCKWISE 360 DEGREE LOOP NEAR 15N. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

STILL...WITH NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...I SEE NO REASON TO FORECAST
A HURRICANE. WEAKENING IS SHOWN PAST 48 HOURS...THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/1500H
 INITIAL... 06.2 N 03.9 E... 45 KT 
20/0300H... 06.8 N 02.7 E... 45 KT 
20/1500H... 07.7 N 01.6 E... 50 KT 
21/0300H... 08.7 N 00.6 E... 55 KT 
21/1500H... 10.1 N 00.1 W... 55 KT 
22/1500H... 13.1 N 01.0 W... 50 KT 
23/1500H... 15.6 N 00.6 E... 30 KT

REPEATING THE 3 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.2 NORTH 3.9 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 85 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 27 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 9 PM
HPT. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY IS SCHEDULED FOR 630 PM HPT...BUT IF WARNINGS ARE
CANCELLED BEFORE THEN...THE WARNING CANCELLATION WILL SUPERSEDE THE INTERMEDIATE
ADVISORY. 

FORECASTER JOHNSON

TCTW05 FOLN 191520
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 3:20 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        1500H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         7
POSITION:           6.2N 3.9E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 15KT
CENT PRES:          993HPA
MAX WIND:           45KT
MAX GUST:           55KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.8N 2.7E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    45KT G55KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    2100H JUNE 18 2146=
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