Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"
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| − | + | TCAD5 WHCO 192130 | |
| − | TROPICAL STORM KANTA | + | SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 8 |
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN | ||
| − | + | 9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 | |
| − | ...TROPICAL STORM | + | ...KANTA STRENGTHENS TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM |
| + | THE INEPTIAN COAST... | ||
| − | + | AT 9 PM HPT...ALL WARNINGS FOR INEPTIA ARE DISCONTINUED. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STORM'S WIND- | |
| − | + | FIELD FOUND BELIEVABLE 54 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE | |
| − | + | NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AT AROUND 8 PM. SATELLITE INTENSITY | |
| − | + | ESTIMATES...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFLE AND T3.5/3.5 FROM HDCW...ARE IN GOOD | |
| + | AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THIS RECONNAISSANCE | ||
| + | FLIGHT...WHICH IS THE LAST ONE SCHEDULED AS THE STORM NOW DOES NOT | ||
| + | POSE A LAND THREAT...ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 HPA...WHICH MAY | ||
| + | SUGGEST THAT SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD BE TAKING PLACE. THE | ||
| + | RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS TO CONTINUE MONITORING | ||
| + | THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS 300/19. | ||
| − | TROPICAL STORM KANTA | + | AT 9 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED |
| − | + | NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.3 EAST...ABOUT 1000 KM...625 MI | |
| − | + | SOUTH OF PORT DU POIVRE INEPTIA. | |
| − | + | SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT | |
| − | + | 30 KM/H...18 MPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED...AS | |
| + | WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IF KANTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY | ||
| + | AT A RAPID PACE AS FORECAST. | ||
| − | + | MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 KM/H...65 MPH...WITH | |
| − | + | HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... | |
| + | AND KANTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING. | ||
| − | + | TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM...115 MILES | |
| + | FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST. | ||
| − | + | THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE | |
| − | + | FLIGHT WAS 989 HPA...29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY. | |
| − | + | ||
| − | THE | + | THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...ORIGINALLY |
| − | AT | + | SCHEDULED TO END AT 1030 PM HPT...HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 330 AM HPT |
| + | TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM AS IT UNDERGOES WHAT COULD BE SOME | ||
| + | RAPID STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE | ||
| + | TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TAKE A MORE | ||
| + | WESTERLY COURSE...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM | ||
| + | THIS MAKES THE TRACK FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT...WHETHER THE STORM | ||
| + | WILL IMPACT CARITAS...OR GRAYS HARBOR. | ||
| − | + | ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER AN | |
| − | + | AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT SHEAR AS WELL AS 29 TO 30 DEG C SEA SURFACE | |
| − | + | TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD CAUSE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. IT IS | |
| − | + | NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE PAX LINE AT A LOWER LATITUDE...AND WILL | |
| − | + | NOT RECURVE AS EARLY...IF AT ALL. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE 96 | |
| − | + | HOUR FORECAST POINT WILL SHOW SOME RECURVATURE. | |
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| − | + | IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ASSUMING RAPID STRENGTHENING...HAVE GONE | |
| − | + | FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE | |
| − | + | STRENGTH SOME TIME ON THE MORNING OF THE 21ST AS IT PASSES OVER | |
| + | THE ABOVEMENTIONED FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. SINCE THE MODELS STILL | ||
| + | CALL FOR A TUTT CELL TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG RUN...RAPID WEAKENING | ||
| + | BEYOND 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE...AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST IS AS A | ||
| + | MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE | ||
| + | TRACK...AND INTENSITY...FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS. | ||
| − | + | HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN | |
| − | + | SCHTOOPSTADT WILL BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING | |
| − | WILL | + | TOMORROW AFTERNOON. |
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OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT | ||
| − | INITIAL TIME...19/ | + | INITIAL TIME...19/2100H |
| − | INITIAL... 06. | + | INITIAL... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 55 KT <!-- 20/0300H... 06.6 N 02.6 E... 65 KT --> |
| − | 20/ | + | 20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 70 KT <!-- 20/1500H... 07.2 N 01.3 E... 75 KT --> |
| − | 20/ | + | 20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 85 KT <!-- 21/0300H... 08.1 N 00.0 E... 95 KT --> |
| − | 21/ | + | 21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...100 KT <!-- 21/1500H... 09.3 N 01.2 W...105 KT --> |
| − | 21/ | + | 21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...105 KT <!-- 22/0300H... 10.6 N 02.0 W...100 KT |
| − | 22/ | + | 22/0900H... 11.1 N 01.9 W... 95 KT 22/1500H... 11.6 N 01.8 W... 90 KT --> |
| − | 22/ | + | 22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 85 KT <!-- 23/0300H... 12.8 N 01.4 W... 80 KT |
| − | 23/ | + | 23/0900H... 13.4 N 01.2 E... 75 KT 23/1500H... 14.0 N 00.8 E... 70 KT --> |
| − | 23/ | + | 23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 65 KT |
| − | REPEATING THE | + | REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.4 NORTH 3.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED |
| − | WINDS NEAR | + | WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING |
| − | WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR | + | WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 30 KM/H. |
| − | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT | + | THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM |
| − | HPT. | + | HPT. |
| − | + | ||
| − | + | ||
| − | FORECASTER JOHNSON | + | FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL |
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| − | TCTW05 FOLN | + | TCTW05 FOLN 192130 |
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING | ||
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA | ||
| − | ISSUED | + | ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 |
| − | ACTIVE TIME: | + | ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 |
WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA | ||
TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA | TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA | ||
| − | WARNING NR: | + | WARNING NR: 8 |
| − | POSITION: 6. | + | POSITION: 6.4N 3.3E |
| − | ACCURACY: | + | ACCURACY: 15NM |
| − | MOVEMENT: WNW | + | MOVEMENT: WNW 19KT |
| − | CENT PRES: | + | CENT PRES: 989HPA |
| − | MAX WIND: | + | MAX WIND: 55KT |
| − | MAX GUST: | + | MAX GUST: 65KT |
| − | FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.8N | + | FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.8N 1.9E |
| − | FCST 12HR WINDS: | + | FCST 12HR WINDS: 70KT G85KT |
| − | NEXT WARNING AT: | + | NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 20 2146= |
Revision as of 09:17, 4 October 2007
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ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones. |
TCAD5 WHCO 192130 SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 8 HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ...KANTA STRENGTHENS TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE INEPTIAN COAST... AT 9 PM HPT...ALL WARNINGS FOR INEPTIA ARE DISCONTINUED. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STORM'S WIND- FIELD FOUND BELIEVABLE 54 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AT AROUND 8 PM. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFLE AND T3.5/3.5 FROM HDCW...ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THIS RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...WHICH IS THE LAST ONE SCHEDULED AS THE STORM NOW DOES NOT POSE A LAND THREAT...ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 HPA...WHICH MAY SUGGEST THAT SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD BE TAKING PLACE. THE RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS 300/19. AT 9 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.3 EAST...ABOUT 1000 KM...625 MI SOUTH OF PORT DU POIVRE INEPTIA. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 KM/H...18 MPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IF KANTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AT A RAPID PACE AS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 KM/H...65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND KANTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM...115 MILES FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WAS 989 HPA...29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY. THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED TO END AT 1030 PM HPT...HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 330 AM HPT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM AS IT UNDERGOES WHAT COULD BE SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TAKE A MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM THIS MAKES THE TRACK FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT...WHETHER THE STORM WILL IMPACT CARITAS...OR GRAYS HARBOR. ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER AN AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT SHEAR AS WELL AS 29 TO 30 DEG C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD CAUSE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. IT IS NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE PAX LINE AT A LOWER LATITUDE...AND WILL NOT RECURVE AS EARLY...IF AT ALL. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POINT WILL SHOW SOME RECURVATURE. IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ASSUMING RAPID STRENGTHENING...HAVE GONE FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SOME TIME ON THE MORNING OF THE 21ST AS IT PASSES OVER THE ABOVEMENTIONED FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. SINCE THE MODELS STILL CALL FOR A TUTT CELL TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG RUN...RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE...AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST IS AS A MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE TRACK...AND INTENSITY...FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS. HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN SCHTOOPSTADT WILL BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT INITIAL TIME...19/2100H INITIAL... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 55 KT 20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 70 KT 20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 85 KT 21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...100 KT 21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...105 KT 22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 85 KT 23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 65 KT REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 6.4 NORTH 3.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 30 KM/H. THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM HPT. FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL
TCTW05 FOLN 192130 TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146 ACTIVE TIME: 2100H JUNE 19 2146 WARNING CENTRE: FOLENISA TROPICAL CYCLONE: KANTA WARNING NR: 8 POSITION: 6.4N 3.3E ACCURACY: 15NM MOVEMENT: WNW 19KT CENT PRES: 989HPA MAX WIND: 55KT MAX GUST: 65KT FCST 12HR PSTN: 6.8N 1.9E FCST 12HR WINDS: 70KT G85KT NEXT WARNING AT: 0300H JUNE 20 2146=
