Difference between revisions of "TD05 (2146)"

Revision as of 09:33, 4 October 2007

ATTENTION: The contents of this page are not about a real tropical cyclone. This page is for the game NationStates. If you came here from a Google search, please note that the events on this page are fictional, and might not be scientifically sound in real life. Please refer to the respective real-life authorities for information on real, possibly-ongoing tropical cyclones.

TCAD5 WHCO 192130
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 8
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN
9 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146

...KANTA STRENGTHENS TO SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM
THE INEPTIAN COAST...

AT 9 PM HPT...ALL WARNINGS FOR INEPTIA ARE DISCONTINUED.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE STORM'S WIND-
FIELD FOUND BELIEVABLE 54 KNOT SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM AT AROUND 8 PM. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES...T3.0/3.5 FROM AFLE AND T3.5/3.5 FROM HDCW...ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. THIS RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT...WHICH IS THE LAST ONE SCHEDULED AS THE STORM NOW DOES NOT
POSE A LAND THREAT...ALSO FOUND A PRESSURE OF 989 HPA...WHICH MAY
SUGGEST THAT SOME RAPID STRENGTHENING COULD BE TAKING PLACE. THE
RECON FLIGHT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR A FEW HOURS TO CONTINUE MONITORING
THE SYSTEM. OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...INITIAL MOTION IS 300/19.

AT 9 PM HPT THE CENTRE OF SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 6.4 NORTH LONGITUDE 3.3 EAST...ABOUT 1000 KM...625 MI
SOUTH OF PORT DU POIVRE INEPTIA.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KANTA HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT
30 KM/H...18 MPH...BUT A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED...AS
WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...IF KANTA CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY
AT A RAPID PACE AS FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 KM/H...65 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND KANTA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 KM...115 MILES
FROM THE CENTRE OF THE STORM...MOSTLY TO THE EAST.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECORDED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
FLIGHT WAS 989 HPA...29.20 INCHES OF MERCURY.

THE LIVERPOOL ENGLAND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT...ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED TO END AT 1030 PM HPT...HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 330 AM HPT
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE STORM AS IT UNDERGOES WHAT COULD BE SOME
RAPID STRENGTHENING. AS SUCH...THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO BE ABLE
TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW...AND TAKE A MORE
WESTERLY COURSE...WELL AWAY FROM LAND. HOWEVER...IN THE LONG TERM
THIS MAKES THE TRACK FORECAST A BIT DIFFICULT...WHETHER THE STORM
WILL IMPACT CARITAS...OR GRAYS HARBOR.

ON THIS NEW FORECAST TRACK THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO CROSS OVER AN
AREA OF 5 TO 10 KNOT SHEAR AS WELL AS 29 TO 30 DEG C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES...WHICH COULD CAUSE EXPLOSIVE INTENSIFICATION. IT IS
NOW FORECAST TO CROSS THE PAX LINE AT A LOWER LATITUDE...AND WILL
NOT RECURVE AS EARLY...IF AT ALL. BASED ON CONTINUITY...THE 96
HOUR FORECAST POINT WILL SHOW SOME RECURVATURE.

IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST...ASSUMING RAPID STRENGTHENING...HAVE GONE
FOR A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS...POSSIBLY REACHING MAJOR HURRICANE
STRENGTH SOME TIME ON THE MORNING OF THE 21ST AS IT PASSES OVER
THE ABOVEMENTIONED FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. SINCE THE MODELS STILL
CALL FOR A TUTT CELL TO DEVELOP IN THE LONG RUN...RAPID WEAKENING
BEYOND 48 HOURS IS POSSIBLE...AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST IS AS A
MINIMAL CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN BOTH THE
TRACK...AND INTENSITY...FORECASTS BEYOND 48 HOURS.

HEARTLAND WEATHER SERVICE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT STATIONED IN
SCHTOOPSTADT WILL BEGIN RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS INTO THE STORM STARTING
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...19/2100H
 INITIAL... 06.4 N 03.3 E... 55 KT 
20/0900H... 06.8 N 01.9 E... 70 KT 
20/2100H... 07.5 N 00.7 E... 85 KT 
21/0900H... 08.5 N 00.5 W...100 KT 
21/2100H... 10.0 N 01.9 W...105 KT 
22/2100H... 12.2 N 01.7 W... 85 KT 
23/2100H... 14.5 N 00.6 W... 65 KT

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION...NEAR 6.4 NORTH 3.3 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 100 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 30 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY AT 3 AM
HPT.  

FORECASTER JOHNSON/LAVAL

TCTW05 FOLN 192130
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:30 PM HPT JUNE 19 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 19 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         8
POSITION:           6.4N 3.3E
ACCURACY:           15NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 19KT
CENT PRES:          989HPA
MAX WIND:           55KT
MAX GUST:           65KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.8N 1.9E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    70KT G85KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 20 2146=