TD05 (2146)

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TCAD5 WHCO 182120
TROPICAL STORM KANTA ADVISORY 4
HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE OREAN 
9 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146... 6 PM PAX TIME

...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON MEANDERING OFF SW INEPTIA...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM AT 1900
BASED ON DATA WE HAD FROM THE AFLE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...WHICH
SUGGESTED AN INTENSITY OF 38-39 KNOTS. THE PLANE HAS SINCE LEFT THE
STORM...AND ANOTHER ONE WILL BE IN TO INVESTIGATE IT EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. SINCE IT HAS ONLY BEEN TWO HOURS SINCE THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THERE HAS BEEN NO OBVIOUS CHANGE IN THE CYCLONE...THE
WARNING INTENSITY IS 40 KNOTS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INEPTIAN COAST FROM
BERLITZ EASTWARDS TO ST. DENIS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING...OR ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THIS WARNING COULD BE DISCONTINUED BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN INEPTIA WEST OF BERLITZ SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

AT 9 PM HPT...THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL STORM KANTA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 5.5 NORTH LONGITUDE 5.4 EAST...ABOUT 420 KM...
260 MILES...WEST OF ST. DENIS INEPTIA. 

TROPICAL STORM KANTA IS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KM/H...
8 MPH. A SLIGHT NORTHWESTWARD TURN...AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ON THIS FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTRE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO PARALLEL THE
INEPTIAN COAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 KM/H...45 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT
A SLIGHT TEMPORARY WEAKENING REMAINS POSSIBLE AS THE OUTER BANDS OF THE
STORM CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH LAND.

TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 KM...90 MILES FROM
THE CENTRE.

THE LOWEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS ESTIMATED TO BE 995 HPA...29.38 INCHES OF MERCURY.

AREAS NEAR THE COAST IN WESTERN LA PLAGE AND EASTERN CÔTE D'ARGENT
PROVINCES OF INEPTIA MAY SEE ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE STORM REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED AS IT
WAS. THEREFORE...AT THIS POINT THERE ARE NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LAST FORECAST.
SOME MODELS NOW SHOWING SHEAR RELAXING EARLIER THAN FORECAST...IN ABOUT
12 HOURS...SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT...WITH SUCH A COMPACT SYSTEM...
THE SYSTEM COULD START TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. WHILE IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...
BASED ON CONTINUITY THERE IS ALSO NO CHANGE TO THE LAST INTENSITY FORECAST...
WHICH HOLDS THE CYCLONE AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND SHOWS A GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING AFTER. A HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS
NOT REFLECTED IN THIS FORECAST AS KANTA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN NEAR 14N UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS
RESTRICTED OUTFLOW BY A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH.

OFFICIAL FORECAST...ALL TIMES HPT
INITIAL TIME...18/2100H
 INITIAL... 05.5 N 05.4 E... 40 KT 
19/0900H... 06.0 N 04.5 E... 40 KT 
19/2100H... 06.5 N 03.5 E... 40 KT 
20/0900H... 07.2 N 02.3 E... 45 KT 
20/2100H... 08.2 N 01.2 E... 55 KT 
21/2100H... 10.8 N 00.3 W... 60 KT 
23/2100H... 13.7 N 00.9 W... 60 KT

REPEATING THE 9 PM POSITION... NEAR 5.5 NORTH 5.4 EAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 75 KM/H. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HPA. SYSTEM IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST AT NEAR 13 KM/H.

THE HEARTLAND HURRICANE PREDICTION CENTRE WILL ISSUE THE NEXT ADVISORY BY 0335 HPT
WITH AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY BY 1230 HPT.

FORECASTER JARVIS/RINDLI

TCTW05 FOLN 182120
TROPICAL CYCLONE TEXT WARNING
LIVERPOOL ENGLAND MET SERVICE HEADQUARTERS FOLENISA
ISSUED 9:20 PM HPT JUNE 18 2146
ACTIVE TIME:        2100H JUNE 18 2146
WARNING CENTRE:     FOLENISA
TROPICAL CYCLONE:   KANTA
WARNING NR:         4
POSITION:           5.5N 5.3E
ACCURACY:           20NM
MOVEMENT:           WNW 07KT XTRP
CENT PRES:          995HPA
MAX WIND:           40KT
MAX GUST:           50KT
FCST 12HR PSTN:     6.0N 4.5E
FCST 12HR WINDS:    40KT G50KT
NEXT WARNING AT:    0300H JUNE 18 2146=